Given the HEAT's experience with free agents the last two seasons, who's crazier for being excited about Ray Allen and Fab Melo: HEAT fans or management?
Ghosts of Three-Point Past
Let's review the 3-point shooters signed by the HEAT in free agency the last two seasons...
#HEATCheck FA Recap... 2010: 30yr-old Miller, shoots career-worst 3P%; 2011: 33yr-old Battier shoots career-worst 3P%; 2012: 37yr-old Allen?
— reservoirgod (@MIA_Heat_Index) June 26, 2012
Here are the numbers...
Mike Miller
Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier
Ray Allen
2011 and 2012 were the best 3-point shooting seasons of Ray Allen's career, but next season he'll be a 37 year-old shooting guard coming back from ankle surgery that's only 2 seasons removed from the second-worst 3-point shooting season of his career in 2010.
As disappointed as most HEAT fans were with the shooting of Miller and Shaved Monkey Nuts in their first seasons with the HEAT, it's hard to understand why they would be more excited about an even older three-point shooter coming off surgery for a weight-bearing injury.
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. HEAT fans advocating for Ray Allen are clearly insane.
Fab Melo
The problem with Fab Melo isn't about making shots, it's about missed shots. In particular, it's about his problem rebounding missed shots.
Below is a ranking of NCAA centers by rebounds per game for the 2012 season. Fab Melo doesn't crack the Top 40.
| Per Game | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Class | Conf | MP | TRB | |||||
| 1 | Kyle O'Quinn | SR | MEAC | 31.3 | 10.3 | |||||
| 2 | Mike Groselle | JR | Southern | 35.3 | 9.6 | |||||
| 3 | Vander Joaquim | JR | WAC | 30.6 | 9.5 | |||||
| 4 | William Mosley | SR | Southland | 29.5 | 9.5 | |||||
| 5 | Antwan Carter | SR | Ind | 34.0 | 9.2 | |||||
| 6 | Gorgui Dieng | SO | Big East | 32.8 | 9.1 | |||||
| 7 | Al'lonzo Coleman | SR | Big South | 30.4 | 8.8 | |||||
| 8 | Corbin Moore | SR | WCC | 30.5 | 8.6 | |||||
| 9 | Alec Brown | SO | Horizon | 31.3 | 8.2 | |||||
| 10 | Meyers Leonard | SO | Big Ten | 31.8 | 8.2 | |||||
| 11 | Kyle Barone | JR | WAC | 32.8 | 8.0 | |||||
| 12 | Kervin Bristol | SR | A-10 | 25.4 | 8.0 | |||||
| 13 | Garrett Stutz | SR | MVC | 24.6 | 8.0 | |||||
| 14 | Chris Braswell | JR | A-10 | 29.8 | 7.6 | |||||
| 15 | Andre Drummond | FR | Big East | 28.4 | 7.6 | |||||
| 16 | Ben Aird | SO | GWC | 30.5 | 7.5 | |||||
| 17 | Paul Crosby | SR | SWAC | 32.8 | 7.4 | |||||
| 18 | Justin Glenn | SR | A-Sun | 25.0 | 7.4 | |||||
| 19 | John Bohannon | SO | CUSA | 26.5 | 7.3 | |||||
| 20 | David Bruce | SO | MEAC | 22.8 | 7.3 | |||||
| Per Game | ||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Class | Conf | MP | TRB | |||||
| 21 | Gregory Echenique | JR | MVC | 23.9 | 7.3 | |||||
| 22 | Aziz N'Diaye | JR | Pac-12 | 23.3 | 7.3 | |||||
| 23 | Mark Cisco | JR | Ivy | 25.2 | 7.2 | |||||
| 24 | Justin Hamilton | JR | SEC | 30.0 | 7.2 | |||||
| 25 | Peter "PJ" Roberson | JR | SWAC | 28.8 | 7.1 | |||||
| 26 | Matt Stainbrook | SO | MAC | 26.9 | 6.8 | |||||
| 27 | Adam Folker | JR | Big West | 22.1 | 6.7 | |||||
| 28 | Trevor Gruis | SO | Summit | 30.8 | 6.7 | |||||
| 29 | Isaac Butts | SR | Southern | 21.1 | 6.6 | |||||
| 30 | Daniel Miller | SO | ACC | 30.0 | 6.5 | |||||
| 31 | Kodi Maduka | SO | CUSA | 22.7 | 6.3 | |||||
| 32 | Jon Pack | SR | Big South | 25.9 | 6.3 | |||||
| 33 | Robert Sacre | SR | WCC | 26.3 | 6.3 | |||||
| 34 | Jeff Withey | JR | Big 12 | 24.8 | 6.3 | |||||
| 35 | Steven McClellan | SO | Sun Belt | 24.6 | 6.2 | |||||
| 36 | Jason Washburn | JR | Pac-12 | 28.8 | 6.2 | |||||
| 37 | Kenny Frease | SR | A-10 | 24.6 | 6.1 | |||||
| 38 | Henry Sims | SR | Big East | 27.5 | 6.0 | |||||
| 39 | Brandon Walters | SR | MAAC | 25.6 | 6.0 | |||||
| 40 | Tony Wroblicky | SO | Patriot | 18.4 | 6.0 | |||||
| Per Game | ||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Class | Conf | MP | TRB | |||||
| 41 | Fab Melo | SO | Big East | 25.4 | 5.8 | |||||
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CBB: View Original Table
Generated 6/26/2012.
Why should HEAT fans know better than to get excited about Fab Melo?
#HEATCheck Question for Fab Melo fans: What do you call 7-footers that grab < 6 rpg? Answer: Eddy Curry.
— reservoirgod (@MIA_Heat_Index) June 26, 2012
Eddy Curry averages 5.2 rebounds per game for his career. As bad as that is for a 7-footer, the article NBA Free Agency: Where Golden Showers Happen, illustrated that Curry's overall game has been unproductive in the NBA. This article on 2011 Free Agent Centers also shows how unproductive Curry's been in the NBA.
Fab Melo's overall game isn't very productive in college, either. According to Draft Express, Melo didn't crack the Top 40 Centers in Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) for the 2012 season, either.
Win Score is a statistic created by sports economist David Berri that measures player's contributions to wins using points, rebounds, steals, assists, blocks, shooting efficiency, turnovers and fouls. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.
Fab Melo's 10.0 WS40 indicates he was less productive in college than Dexter Pittman, who produced a 13.5 WS40 in his last season at University of Texas. Should HEAT fans really be excited about a player that's less productive than Pittman?
No, they shouldn't. That's insanity.
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