All-Star Break Analysis, Pt. 2: Winning Streaks After the Trade Deadline

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Miami Heat before the season started and the obvious question after the All-Star break is this, "How did they do living up to the hype?"

There were a few predictions hyped on this blog:

1. Total wins for the season
2. Consecutive wins during the season
3. Attendance & playoff seed

This article is the second in a three-part series that will evaluate how the team has measured up to the pre-season hype.

Before the season started, ABC's Jeff Van Gundy made the following prediction about the Miami Heat:

"They will break the single-season win record [of 72]," Jeff Van Gundy said. "And I think they have a legit shot at the Lakers' 33-game [winning] streak [in 1971-72], as well."

Why the Heat won't win 70+ wins was analyzed in Part 1. As for winning 33-games in a row, that didn't happen either as they only won 12 in a row. However, as I said in the original post discussing Van Gundy's prediction, it wasn't realistic anyway.

The more interesting winning streak for the Heat was 13 games. According to Hot Hot Hoops, the over/under at Bodog was 12.5 for the Heat's longest win streak of the regular season.

With 23 games left in the season, do the Heat have a good chance of winning 13 in a row?

Heat Produced: Benched by the Bulls but Wade Was Spellbinding with Wizards

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats for games played through February 25th against the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards.

The Heat lost to the Bulls 93-89 with an efficiency differential of -7.1 and an expected winning percentage of 0.260. Miami produced an estimated 0.290 wins against Chicago.

The next night, the Heat beat the Wizards 121-113 with an efficiency differential of +5.3 and an expected winning percentage of 0.644. Miami produced an estimated 0.661 wins against Washington.

Who was responsible for the estimated production of wins (or lack thereof) in both games? Let's take a look at the estimated wins produced by the players.

Heat Check: How Did the Trade Deadline Impact the Title Contenders?

I did a podcast at NerdNumbers.com with Dr. David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal on Friday evening and we discussed how the transactions at the trade deadline could impact the NBA playoff races. It was a great conversation since two weeks ago I wrote about the best chances each team had of beating the Heat in the playoffs.

Did Danny Ainge really hand the Heat a trip to the Finals by trading Kendrick Perkins?

Can Troy Murphy swing the balance of power in the Eastern Conference and determine who makes it to the Finals?

If the Heat make it to the Finals, then are they more likely to face the Oklahoma City Thunder now that they've traded for the size they needed to compete with the Lakers and the Spurs out West?

Check out the podcast for answers to those questions as well as discussion of the Bulls, Hawks, Wizards, Nets and Blazers.

Weekend Podcast w/ Dr. David Berri and Mosi Platt | Nerd Numbers

Heat Produced: Miami 117, Sacramento 97

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's win over the Kings on Tuesday night.

Twitter commentary for the game can be found HERE and HERE.

Here's the stat that tells it all - the Heat only took 11 free throws because the Kings didn't even care enough to foul them as they made drive after drive to the rim. Dwyane Wade alone averages 11 free throw attempts per 48 minutes.

The most productive players for the Heat were Chris Bosh with 0.378 estimated wins produced in 35.1 minutes and Wade with 0.349 estimated wins produced in 35.5 minutes.

Least productive player for the Heat was Jamaal Magloire with -0.082 estimated wins produced in four minutes.

Estimated Wins Produced analysis of the entire boxscore can be found after the jump.

All-Star Break Analysis, Pt.1: What Happened to 75 Wins?

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Miami Heat before the season started and the obvious question after the All-Star break is this, "How did they do living up to the hype?"

There were a few predictions hyped on this blog:

1. Total wins for the season
2. Consecutive wins during the season
3. Attendance & playoff seed

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with all games before the All-Star break, so let's take a look at the stats and see how the Heat did. This article is the first in a three-part series that will evaluate how the team has measured up to the pre-season hype.

Heat Produced: Miami 82, Boston 85

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's 82-85 loss to the Celtics.

I have a lot to say about this game and no time to say it before the Pacers game tonight, so bullet points from Twitter will have to do for now.

Heat Produced: Updated Thru 2/11/11

The Heat Produced Page was updated with stats from Friday's game against the Detroit Pistons.

• For some interesting stats on Wins Produced by the Heat this week, click HERE.
• For commentary on the 2/11/11 Heat-Pistons game, click HERE.
• For commentary on the 2/8/11 Pacers-Heat game, click HERE.

To Be The Best, You Challenge The Best

There was some talk on Twitter debating who Miami Heat fans should have rooted for in Thursday's Lakers-Celtics game. Sun Sports' Jason Jackson and others advocated rooting for the Lakers so that the Heat could be the #1 seed in the NBA Eastern Conference.

My answer was different and it was simple - "neither."

As long as the Heat beat the teams they're supposed to beat, they can take care of their own business with Boston since they have two games left with the Celtics this season. The Heat don't need help from the children of lesser gods. To paraphrase a verse from the rapper Nas on "Rule" featuring singer Amerie:

In the NBA, the weapons are spherical.
To be the best, you challenge the best and the blessings are spiritual.
Top of the world for Three Kings, no less.
Popping any player's head off their shoulders, no contest.
I know the Most High hear me. So fly you can't get near me.
You're scared of a mirror. My theory is that knowledge is power.
For every Heat fan around the world, we gotta get ours.

Is Nas the only reason I think the Heat can handle their own business in the Eastern Conference without any help? No, he's not, and since Nas said, "knowledge is power", let's get some.

Off the Index: Wins Produced All-Stars Podcast | Nerd Numbers

Yesterday, I did a podcast with Prof. David Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal and fellow WoW Journalist, Andres "Dre" Alvarez from NerdNumbers. You can check it out by clicking the link below.

Dre has posted lots of interesting links to help navigate the discussion, and I wanted to add a few more:

• David Aldridge's nba.com column with selections for the All-Star reserves.
• My twitter debate with David Aldridge.
• I mention a story Bill Walton told about John Wooden not being concerned with turnovers. I believe this is what he was talking about. Looks like me or Bill Walton butchered the story.

Podcast: Wins Produced All-Stars | Nerd Numbers

Heat Produced Page Updated Thru 2/4/11

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's 109-97 win over the Charlotte Bobcats.

Off the Index: The NBA's 50 Greatest Players - 2011 Remix

The announcement of the 2011 NBA All-Stars last night has triggered the expected debates about who is or isn't one of the top 24 players in the game this season.

Those debates are fine, but the 2 Live Stews debated a much more interesting topic on their sports talk radio show last week - if they updated the NBA's 50 Greatest Players, then who would be added to the list and who would they replace?

The original 50 greatest NBA players were selected by "a blue-ribbon panel of media, former players and coaches, current and former general managers and team executives" in 1996 and honored at halftime of the 1997 All-Star Game in Cleveland. How can we determine which players should be honored at halftime of the 2011 All-Star Game in Los Angeles (if the NBA was inclined to do such a thing)?

Wins Produced is a great metric for that kind of debate, so let's see what the numbers have to say about the NBA's 50 Greatest Players.

Heat Produced Page Updated Thru 2/3/11

The Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from Miami's 104-100 win at Orlando. LeBron posted the second-best game of the season for a Heat player with an estimated 0.549 wins produced. The best game of the season was LeBron's performance against the Lakers on Christmas Day when he produced an estimated 0.593 wins.

I probably won't post any recaps until after Sunday's game vs. Clippers. If you want Heat thoughts from a Wins Produced perspective before then, please check out the twitter feed.

Three wins in four nights? One down, two to go...

Heat Produced: Three Wins in Four Nights, Can Miami Do It Twice?

Last week, the Heat won three games in four nights against the Pistons, Thunder and Cavaliers. The team produced an efficiency differential of +11.9 in those three games, which translates to an expected 2.6 wins produced. The Heat actually produced an estimated 2.3 wins.

This week, the Heat play three games in four nights against the Magic, Bobcats and Clippers. Can they do it again?

Heat Produced Page Updated Thru 1/31/11

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Thunder & Cavs games.

The biggest change is that Mike Miller's estimated win production per 48 minutes has risen above average after back-to-back great games versus the Thunder (0.336 Est. WP48) and Cavs (0.625 Est. WP48). Miller's Est. WP48 for the season is now 0.123 (an average player produces 0.100 Est. WP48).

There will be a new post tomorrow recapping the Heat's three wins in four nights with a preview of Thursday's game vs. the Orlando Magic.