Wins Produced is a statistical model created by sports economist David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. Estimated Wins Produced is a simpler model based on the Win Score statistic created by Berri.
The formula to calculate Win Score is PTS - FGA - FTA/2 + OREB + AST/2 - TO + DREB/2 + STL + BLK/2 - PF/2.
The formula to estimate Wins Produced from Win Score: (Player's Win Score per minute (WSmin) - Avg. WSmin for player's position) * 1.531 + 0.1 = Estimated Wins Produced per 48 minutes (Est.WP48).
An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average team has a 0.500 winning percentage and only 5 players can be on the court at a time (0.500/5 = 0.100). Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and superstars produce +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
How to Calculate Est.WP48 — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
UPDATE: New Wins Produced and Win Score
2012-13 HEAT Produced: Regular Season
This spreadsheet summarizes the Heat Produced by players in the regular season (below average numbers are in red). For a full view of the regular season stats and Wins Produced estimated from the box scores for every game, go here.
Stats Legend & Glossary
[1] Below averages stats in red; All stats are per 48 minutes
[2] EWP48 = Estimated Wins Produced per 48 minutes. Avg players produce 0.100, star players produce 0.200, great players produce 0.300
[3] EST WP = Estimated Wins Produced
[4] PPS = Points Per Shot ((PTS-FTM)/FGA), a measure of shooting efficiency
[5] ADJS% = Adjusted Shooting Percentage (PPS/2)
[6] SA48 = Shot Attempts per 48 minutes
[7] NP48 = Net Possessions per 48 minutes (REB+STL-TO)
[8] WS48: Win Score per 48 minutes = PTS+OREB+DREB/2+STL+AST/2+BLK/2-SHOTS-FTA/2-TO-PF/2
[9] PAWS48 = Position-adjusted WS48 (WS48 minus avg. WS48 for player's position)
2011-12 HEAT Produced
Stats for the 2012 season can be found at the links below.
- 2012 Regular Season Stats & Box Scores
- 2012 Post-Season Stats & Box Scores
- 2012 Summer League Stats & Box Scores
- 2012 Olympics Stats & Box Scores
2010-11 HEAT Produced
Stats for the 2011 season can be found at the links below.
- 2011 Post-Season Stats
- 2011 Regular Season Stats & Box Scores
- 2011 Lineup Stats (Original lineup data taken from basketballvalue.com)
- 2011 HEAT Produced Game-by-Game Chart
- 2011 HEAT Produced Chart for Starters
- 2011 HEAT Produced Chart for Reserves
