The keys for the HEAT to beat the Celtics have little to do with stopping Rajon Rondo or Kevin Garnett.
The Four Factors for Basketball Success show the gameplan for beating the Celtics comes down to one thing: running off misses and turnovers.
Running Off Misses
The Celtics will miss shots and the HEAT will get out on the break. The Celtics are the only team in the Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs shooting below league average and the HEAT have the second-best defense left in the playoffs.
| Offense Four Factors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | eFG% ▾ | ||
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | .548 | ||
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .506 | ||
| 4 | Miami Heat | .496 | ||
| League Average | .467 | |||
| 5 | Boston Celtics | .465 | ||
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2012.
| Defense Four Factors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | eFG% ▴ | ||
| 2 | Boston Celtics | .441 | ||
| 3 | Miami Heat | .447 | ||
| 4 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .449 | ||
| 5 | San Antonio Spurs | .449 | ||
| League Average | .467 | |||
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2012.
Rebounding will be key once the HEAT defense forces the Celtics to miss shots. The Celtics are the worst offensive rebounding team in the Conference Finals, but the HEAT are the worst defensive rebounding team left.
| Offense Four Factors | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | ORB% ▾ |
| 8 | Miami Heat | .264 |
| League Average | .260 | |
| 11 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .231 |
| 15 | San Antonio Spurs | .205 |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | .188 |
| Defense Four Factors | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | DRB% ▾ |
| 7 | Boston Celtics | .756 |
| League Average | .740 | |
| 10 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .739 |
| 11 | San Antonio Spurs | .738 |
| 13 | Miami Heat | .709 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2012.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade will have to rebound like they did to close out the Pacers so the HEAT can get in transition. Udonis Haslem should also see more time at power forward (PF) than Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier. UD averaged 17.9 rebounds per 48 minutes against the Celtics this season, tops on the HEAT.
The HEAT will miss Chris Bosh 14 rebounds per 48 minutes at center. Ronny Turiaf is a better rebounder than Joel Anthony, so it makes sense for him to keep the starting center (C) spot until Bosh returns. Kevin Garnett had ZERO offensive rebounds against the HEAT in the regular season.
Running Off Turnovers
The Celtics will turn the ball over and the HEAT will get out on the break. They commit turnovers at a higher rate than any other team in the Conference Finals, and the HEAT force turnovers more frequently than any other team left in the playoffs.
| Offense Four Factors | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | TOV% ▾ | |
| 9 | Boston Celtics | .138 | |
| League Average | .132 | ||
| 10 | Miami Heat | .131 | |
| 11 | San Antonio Spurs | .129 | |
| 15 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .107 | |
| Defense Four Factors | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | TOV% ▾ | |
| 1 | Miami Heat | .166 | |
| 5 | Boston Celtics | .138 | |
| 7 | Oklahoma City Thunder | .134 | |
| League Average | .132 | ||
| 10 | San Antonio Spurs | .130 | |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2012.
Mario Chalmers is the key here. He led the HEAT with 4.3 steals per 48 minutes vs. the Celtics this season, but he also led the rotation players with 5.7 turnovers per 48 minutes against the Celtics. Mike Miller, who usually gets subbed in for Chalmers, wasn't much better with 5.3 turnovers per 48 minutes. The HEAT will need Rio to remain aggressive on defense against the Celtics, but tone that aggression down on offense and be smart with the ball to protect the HEAT's turnover advantage and not blow any opportunities in transition.
The good news is that LeBron and Wade only averaged 3 turnovers each per 48 minutes vs. the Celtics this season, which is lower than the 4.4 and 3.8 turnovers per 48 minutes they averaged over the whole season. Rondo averaged 4.7 turnovers per 48 minutes vs. the HEAT this season, which is right around his overall season average of 4.8.
The other good news is that James Jones is a viable option if Miller can't take care of the ball or isn't rebounding the ball well. Jones' shooting efficiency vs. the Celtics was 81% during the regular season. That means he scored an average of 1.6 points per shot, doing damage from "the land of milk and honey."
Summary & Player Stats
In the end, the HEAT don't need to stop Rondo or KG. They just need them to be who they were during the regular season - invisible on the offensive glass and turnover prone.
The HEAT just need to be who they were before the All-Star break and go back to the Pace & Space playbook they used to beat the Celtics. The Celtics haven't seen that playbook since their first game against the HEAT this season. Let's see if they're ready for it.
The spreadsheets below list the estimated wins produced and stats for the HEAT-Celtics matchups this season. For last season's matchups, see the 2011 HEAT-Celtics Retrospective.
An average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48), star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and superstars produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more info and individual box scores.
In the end, the HEAT don't need to stop Rondo or KG. They just need them to be who they were during the regular season - invisible on the offensive glass and turnover prone.
The HEAT just need to be who they were before the All-Star break and go back to the Pace & Space playbook they used to beat the Celtics. The Celtics haven't seen that playbook since their first game against the HEAT this season. Let's see if they're ready for it.
The spreadsheets below list the estimated wins produced and stats for the HEAT-Celtics matchups this season. For last season's matchups, see the 2011 HEAT-Celtics Retrospective.
An average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48), star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and superstars produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more info and individual box scores.
Mario Chalmers is the key here.
ReplyDeleteMansion Miami | Space Miami