Wade Watch: March Madness 2012: Day 1 Upset Picks

Thursday, March 15, 2012

March Madness 2012: Day 1 Upset Picks

Marquette alum Dwyane Wade should enjoy watching the Golden Eagles defeat BYU but there are five upset picks that will be more entertaining on the first day of March Madness.

March Madness Upset Picks: Day 1

EAST region: #16 UNC-Asheville over #1 Syracuse and #12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

SOUTH region: #16 Western Kentucky over #1 Kentucky, #12 VCU over #5 Wichita State and #13 New Mexico State over #4 Indiana.

As explained last year, these upset picks were made with the following biases:

My favorite team is the Georgetown Hoyas. My father introduced me to them during the Hoya Paranoia days and there was no looking back.
I hate Duke.
I always root for black head coaches because I think they are under-represented.
I like the Win Score and Wins Produced metrics. DraftExpress ranks college players by their Win Scores.
I like the Miami Heat (but you already knew that)
I like Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions.

An explanation for each upset pick on Day 1 is listed below.

#16 UNC-Asheville over #1 Syracuse

The Syracuse Orangemen only have one player with a Win Score that ranks in the top 200 and Fab Melo (#195) isn't playing in the tournament. The Asheville Bulldogs have a more productive player that's eligible for the tournament named Jeremy Atkinson (#87).

#12 Harvard over #5 Vanderbilt

Tommy Amaker is the head coach for Harvard.

#16 Western Kentucky over #1 Kentucky

All of the biases listed above point toward the Kentucky Wildcats. Anthony Davis has the highest Win Score in the country and Pomeroy gives Kentucky the best chance to win the title at 19.7%. I picked the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers because they have a player named Derrick Gordon that starred with Kentucky super freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the high school hoops documentary, Prayer for a Perfect Season. The documentary's portrayal of Gordon struggling to cope with his twin brother being locked up for an aggravated assault charge moved me to pick Gordon's Hilltoppers over his old, high school teammate MKG.

Trailer

#12 VCU over #5 Wichita State
Last year's Cinderella Final Four team is still coached by Shaka Smart even though many analysts predicted he would leave VCU for a bigger school with deeper pockets.

#13 New Mexico State over #4 Indiana
The New Mexico State Aggies are coached by Marvin Menzies, a 2010 finalist for the Ben Jobe Award given to the top minority coach in Division I. Wade will be rooting for Indiana and his old Marquette coach, Tom Crean.

HEAT Madness: Day 1
Wade isn't the only HEAT player with a vested interest in Day 1 of March Madness. UNLV alum Joel Anthony will be rooting for the Running Rebels to beat the Colorado Buffaloes later tonight.

Below is a list of tournament teams each player on the HEAT roster attended. For more on the Miami HEAT's college connections, see the article "Value of a College Education".