Off the Index: The Pursuit of Happiness in March Madness

Since I've been tweeting about March Madness action for 2011 since it officially tipped off a little after 12:15 PM today (see the sidebar), I decided to post an explanation for the picks in my bracket.

First, some background. Yesterday, Dr. David Berri posted his Final Four picks. They were made for the Wall Street Journal's blindfold bracket by looking at the stats and information for each team without knowing the team's name.

The purpose of the WSJ blindfold bracket was to "restore objectivity to March Madness" by having a panel of experts complete brackets free of bias.

Well, I took the opposite approach with my brackets. They are completely biased.

When I gambled on the tournament in high school, I tried to put together bias-free brackets to increase my chances of winning the bets I made. The problem was that I ended up needing teams that I liked to lose in order to win the bets I made. That sucked.

To fix that problem, I stopped gambling and started picking the teams that I root for to advance in my brackets. I enjoy the tournament a lot more now and have more money in my pocket — it's a win-win.

With that background story out the way, here are my biases (and picks) for the 2011 NCAA tournament.

Biases:

• My favorite team is the Georgetown Hoyas. My father introduced me to them during the Hoya Paranoia days and there was no looking back.
• I hate Duke.
• I always root for black head coaches because I think they are under-represented.
• I like the Win Score and Wins Produced metrics. According to DraftExpress the college player with the highest Win Score is Kenneth Faried from Morehead State. Dr. Berri said he's like Dennis Rodman on last week's Wages of Wins podcast.
• I like the Miami Heat (but you already knew that)
• I like Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions.

One of those six biases is responsible for all of the picks in my bracket (which you can see HERE).

First Round Upsets:

• East Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 13. Princeton over 4. Kentucky (They're coached by Sydney Johnson)
• 11. Marquette over 6. Xavier (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions, being Dwyane Wade's alma mater doesn't hurt)
• West Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 16. Hampton over 1. Duke (I hate Duke & they're coached by Edward Joyner Jr.)
• 11. Missouri over 6. Cincinatti (They're coached by Mike Anderson)
• Southwest Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 9. Illinois over 8. UNLV (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 13. Morehead St. over 4. Louisville (Kenneth Faried)
• 10. Florida St. over 7. Texas A&M (They're coached by Leonard Hamilton)
• 15. Akron over 2. Notre Dame (LeBron said they have a great coach)
• Southeast Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 9. Old Dominion over 8. Butler (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 13. Belmont over 4. Wisconsin (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 11. Gonzaga over 6. St. John's (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 10. Michigan St. over 7. UCLA (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)

Sweet 16:

• East Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 1. Ohio St. (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 13. Princeton (They're coached by Sydney Johnson)
• 3. Syracuse (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 7. Washington (They're coached by Lorenzo Romar)
• West Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 16. Hampton (They're coached by Edward Joyner Jr.)
• 4. Texas (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 11. Missouri (They're coached by Mike Anderson)
• 2. San Diego St. (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• Southwest Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 1. Kansas (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 13. Morehead St. (Kenneth Faried)
• 6. Georgetown (My favorite team)
• 10. Florida St. (They're coached by Leonard Hamilton)
• Southeast Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 1. Pittsburgh (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 13. Belmont (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 11. Gonzaga (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 2. Florida (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)

Elite Eight:

• East Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 13. Princeton (They're coached by Sydney Johnson)
• 7. Washington (They're coached by Lorenzo Romar)
• West Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 16. Hampton (They're coached by Edward Joyner Jr.)
• 11. Missouri (They're coached by Mike Anderson)
• Southwest Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 13. Morehead St. (Kenneth Faried)
• 6. Georgetown (My favorite team)
• Southeast Region (Seed, Team, Bias)
• 1. Pittsburgh (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• 2. Florida (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)

Final Four (Region, Seed, Team, Bias):

• East — 7. Washington (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• West — 11. Missouri (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• Southwest — 6. Georgetown (My favorite team)
• Southeast — 1. Pittsburgh (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)

Championship Game (Region, Seed, Team, Bias):

• East — 7. Washington (Ken Pomeroy's ratings and log5 predictions)
• Southwest — 6. Georgetown (My favorite team)

Of course, I picked the Georgetwon Hoyas to win the championship game.