Wade Watch: Miami 100, Detroit 94: Heat Produced & Back to the Future with Bosh at Center

Friday, March 25, 2011

Miami 100, Detroit 94: Heat Produced & Back to the Future with Bosh at Center

The Heat Produced Page was updated with stats from Miami's 100-94 win over the Detroit Pistons and a new feature with data on the effectiveness of various Heat lineups.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ Est.WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced from the boxscore stats for the Pistons game.

Game Notes:

Dwyane Wade was the most productive player with an estimated 0.234 wins produced. Chris Bosh was the second most productive player with an estimated 0.198 wins produced.
The least productive player for Miami was Joel Anthony with an estimated -0.095 wins produced from one turnover and two fouls in 6.5 minutes.
The Pistons starters produced an estimated 0.578 wins while the Heat starters produced an estimated 0.508 wins. The Heat bench produced an estimated 0.042 wins while the Pistons bench produced an estimated -0.128 wins.

The most productive Pistons player was Greg Monroe with an estimated 0.256 wins produced and Chris Wilcox was the second-most productive Pistons player with an estimated 0.137 wins produced.
Bad third quarter for the Heat with an estimated -0.144 wins produced. LeBron James led the race to the bottom with an estimated -0.191 wins produced from two points on five shots, two rebounds, one assist, two turnovers and two fouls.
The Heat bounced back from that bad third quarter with an estimated 0.310 wins produced in the fourth quarter while holding the Pistons to an estimated -0.363 wins produced. Game over.
The Heat's three centers combined for an estimated -0.210 wins produced. In the fourth quarter, Spoelstra was left with no choice and played Bosh in the middle for all 12 minutes.
Did playing Bosh in the middle work?

The most productive Heat players in the fourth quarter were James Jones (0.141 estimated wins produced) and Bosh (0.134 estimated wins produced).
Bosh grabbed five of his seven rebounds in the fourth quarter and the Heat out-rebounded the Pistons 13-10.

Let's talk a little more about Bosh at center.

The Heat started the fourth quarter with a 15-0 run and the first 11 points of that run were scored with the following lineup on the floor - Eddie House, Mike Miller, James Jones, LeBron and Bosh. It was the first time Spoelstra used that particular lineup this season, but he has tried 43 different lineup combinations that feature Bosh at center for a total of 306.2 minutes.

The Heat have an efficiency differential of +11.3 with Bosh at center. Efficiency differential is simply the points scored per possession minus the points given up per possession. An efficiency differential of +11.3 translates to 70 wins over an 82 game season. The Heat have produced an estimated five wins in the limited time Bosh has spent at center this season. See HERE for a summary of the Heat lineup stats.

If Udonis Haslem didn't go down with a foot injury, then perhaps Bosh would have spent more than 8.9 percent of the season in the middle. With Haslem on the comeback trail for the playoffs, at least the Heat have some idea that Bosh can be effective playing center.

Since he entered the season third on the team's all-time list in estimated wins produced, the Heat already know Haslem can be effective playing power forward.