Heat 111, Jazz 98: Revenge Is A Dish Best Served Heated

Before the game, I only gave the Heat a 42.4 percent chance of avenging their loss to the Jazz in the Musical Miracle by Biscayne Bay on November 9th, but Miami was able to overcome those odds and get their revenge with a 111-98 defeat of Utah in Salt Lake City.

How did they do it? Let's go through the stats.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap

A brief announcement: This recap will be narrated by my twitter account, not because I have great insight when I watch the game but because what I get from watching the game is usually different than what I get from the box score. 

Now let's get started with a little help from Slick Rick.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:02p 

Paul Millsap has the signature of an illiterate man #NBA 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12688601196269569

NBA League Pass aired the Utah Jazz broadcast. It began with a Paul Millsap highlight package and a graphic of his signature that looked like he didn't take too many classes at Louisiana Tech. Don't take my word for it, check it out for yourself.

Paul Millsap does not write like a learned man

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:11p 

Jazz fans, I saw your thoughts on LBJ that aired during pre-game. U can all kiss the #HeatShitList 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12690813855211520

Seriously, the Jazz fans had the loudest boos for LeBron James that I've heard outside of Cleveland. Why? Actually, it doesn't matter. Kiss the list Jazz fans.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:36p 

Fucking Millsap still outworking the Heat. He's the #NBA version of the lil' engine that could. Hustle @mchalmers15! 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12696981629566976

Millsap didn't dominate the Heat like he did in Miami primarily because he was terrible in the second and fourth quarters (-0.288 EWP48). But he was very productive in the first quarter when I sent this tweet with eight points and two rebounds on 4-6 shooting from the floor.

Millsap produced 0.445 EWP48 in the first quarter and his hustle at the end of the quarter pulled the Jazz within one-point of the Heat, 28-27. In Miami, Millsap was the most productive Jazz player with 0.343 EWP48. Last night, his production dropped to 0.206 EWP48 and he was only the second-most productive Jazz player.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:40p 

This might be one of those #NBA games Spo has 2 play the 3 Kings 40 mins ea. 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12697956985610241

The Three Kings played 119.3 minutes for an average of 39.8 minutes each. LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined to produce an estimated 0.695 wins produced, which was 80.6 percent of the Heat's estimated wins produced total. That should be enough to win as long as the supporting cast doesn't tank the game with negative production.

Last night, the supporting cast didn't bring a lot to the table (like they did last week against the Pistons) but it was positive. They were below average with 0.066 EWP48 but Zydrunas Ilgauskas gave his second-best performance of the season with 0.447 EWP48 and an estimated 0.243 wins produced.

It was Big Z's first time scoring and being productive since the win over the Pistons on December 1st. His performance against the Jazz was surprising since he was terrible in the last game with -0.184 EWP48.

Big Z has now played five games above 0.400 EWP48 (a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48) this season and the Heat are 4-1 in those games.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:41p 

Time 4 @mchalmers15 2 come outta the game. He's fucking messing up like he did in MIL. 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12698196316786688

Mario Chalmers was terrible in the second quarter with -0.162 EWP48. His production consisted of a missed three-pointer, one rebound, one assist and three fouls in 9.5 minutes. Not a good run.

Chalmers was also terrible in Monday night's game against Milwaukee with -0.293 EWP48. The road trip hasn't gotten off to a good start for Chalmers. Before the road trip, Chalmers had played above average in five consecutive games.

Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always say the difference between star players and role players is that role players struggle on the road. It will be interesting to see if Chalmers will be able to get his game back on track in the last two games of this road trip.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:42p 

Bring back Eddie House RT @reservoirgod: Time 4 @mchalmers15 2 come outta the game. He's fucking up like he did in MIL. 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12698514177925121

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel ran a story yesterday about House losing his spot in Coach Spoelstra's rotation to Chalmers and he reportedly doesn't know why. Spoelstra appears to have made the decision after the Heat's 16th game of the season against Philadelphia on November 26th to give Chalmers more playing time.

House played 341.3 minutes in the first 16 games this season compared to just 72.7 minutes played for Chalmers. In the first 16 games, House produced .076 EWP48 compared to Chalmers' production of 0.013 EWP48.

House has only made four appearances in the last seven games and played just 33.4 minutes after appearing in each of the first 16 games. In the last seven games, House has produced 0.187 EWP48 while Chalmers has played 154.9 minutes in the last seven games and produced 0.174 EWP48.

I can understand House's confusion based on those numbers, but Chalmers has been more productive than House for the season. Mario's produced 0.123 EWP48 for the season compared to Eddie's 0.085 EWP48.

The problem House could be having, though, is that he's been just as productive a point guard as Chalmers but has played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard, where his production has been below average. The figure below illustrates how Chalmers and House's production compare this season.

I think the figure provides some insight into Spoelstra's decision to switch to Chalmers. The only thing House does well as a point guard is shoot the ball. If Spoelstra wants more well-rounded production from the backup point guard position, then Chalmers is the clear choice because he provides above average production in terms of steals, ball-handling, shot-blocking and passing even though he's shooting terribly.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:04p 

Deron Williams is a straight up thug on offense, man. He's constantly shoving ppl w/ and w/out the ball. Goddamn #NBA refs don't call shit anything 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12704192061775872

Deron Williams was a load for the Heat too handle. He used his speed and handle to get by LeBron and bully past the rest of the Heat defenders on his way to producing 0.331 EWP48. He was the most productive player on the floor for Utah, and his production was consistent with his last game against the Heat when he produced 0.318 EWP48.

If Williams could have knocked down his three-pointers last night, then it could have been a different game, but since he was 0-5 he didn't even attempt one in the fourth quarter when the Jazz could have used them to get back in the game.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:29p 

D-Wade 2 AK47: "DEEZ NUTS!" #NBA action is fantastic 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12710282849681408

This dunk by Wade was a rare highlight in a third quarter filled with lowlights as the Jazz outplayed the Heat coming out of the locker room. As a team, the Jazz played like stars with an average of 0.263 EWP48 while the Heat played like bums with an average of -0.006 EWP48.

Wade only produced just -0.095 EWP48 in the third quarter which has usually been his most productive quarter. Wade averages 0.292 EWP48 in third quarters this season and went OFF against the Jazz in Miami during the third quarter with 0.762 EWP48.

Wade wasn't the only Miami player with negative production in the third quarter. Every players' productivity was below zero in the third quarter except for LeBron and Big Z. Big Z played his best quarter of the game when the Heat needed it most by producing 0.919 EWP48 and LeBron played his second-best quarter of the game by producing 0.646 EWP48.

With the team going so bad, Spoelstra played LeBron the entire quarter and as a result he didn't have much left for the fourth quarter. In the final period, LeBron was below average with 0.075 EWP48 but he did have a great dunk off a Wade alley-oop.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:33p 

I'm so sick of Wade and these fucking TOs... 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12711501194334208

Wade only has two weaknesses in his production this season - free throw shooting and turnovers. He's averaging 4.7 turnovers per 48 minutes, which is consistent with his career average but higher than his average over the last two seasons when he only had 4.2 and 4.4 turnovers per 48 minutes.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:45p 

LBJ might give Jazz 40 2nite but he's gotta stop losing track of AK47 on D... 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12714390562283520

LeBron scored his 27th point with 3:55 left in the third quarter for an average of 47 points per 48 minutes. With the rest of the team playing so bad in the third quarter, I thought he was going to have to carry the Heat in the fourth quarter, too.

Well, LeBron only took one more shot in the third quarter (which he missed) and the rest of the team stepped up in the fourth quarter (except for Erick Dampier). LeBron only played eight minutes in the fourth quarter. If he kept scoring at the rate he was scoring when I sent that tweet, then he would have scored 39 points.

As much as that tweet was about offense, it was also about defense. LeBron's defense against Andrei Kirilenko was terrible in the third quarter as he kept trying to cheat off him and AK-47 took advantage by scoring seven points on just four shots.

AK-47 only had one good quarter in the game and it was that third quarter with 0.102 EWP48. His production was below zero in every other period and the only thing he did in that third quarter was score, courtesy of LeBron's inattentive defense. His only other stat in that period was a personal foul, so all of his production came from the points he scored.

Am I nitpicking LeBron? Yes. Yes, I am.

The truth is that he shut AK-47 down for three quarters. Kirilenko finished the game with -0.133 EWP48, which was very different from the 0.313 EWP48 he produced in the miracle game the Jazz won in Miami.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:46p 

Too much LBJ ballhandling in this 3rd qtr for MIA. Let Arroyo run da mu'fucking point... 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12714776786378752

This was an idiotic tweet. Arroyo was the worst Heat player on the floor last night with -0.350 EWP48.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:06p 

Here MIA goes w/ this hero shit garbage again and the lead starts 2 evaporate... 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12719761792176128

This tweet was sent after Wade and LeBron both bricked pull up three-pointers and Millsap was headed to the line for two free throws to cut a lead that was just 11 points 75 seconds ago to five points.

He bricked both free throws. Karma never tasted so sweet.

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:12p 

WHY DA FUCK IS CHALMERS STILL IN DA GAME? 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12721195363344385 

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:13p 

I JUST ASKED THAT QUESTION! RT @IraHeatBeat: Why is Mario Chalmers still out there? 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12721462087524352

These two tweets also turned out to be idiotic. The problem for Chalmers was that he had two turnovers in 59 seconds with less than five minutes to go in the game. The problem with the tweets was that they were the only two turnovers he had in 25.4 minutes played.

Chalmers had a huge fourth quarter for the Heat with 0.411 EWP48. He scored eight points on just six shots, with one rebound, one assist, two steals, two turnovers and one foul.

Chalmers played the entire fourth quarter and, with Arroyo literally playing his worst game of the season, it was the right move for Spoelstra to make. Coincidentally, Arroyo's second-worst game of the season (-0.317 EWP48) came in New Orleans against Chris Paul, so he hasn't been good against the consensus top two point guards in the league.

Chalmers ended the game by serving up a three-pointer in the last eight seconds that cleansed the taste of the Jazz from the Heat's palate for good this season.

The only good thing about the Jazz was that they were ahead of the Lakers in the Western Conference standings, but with their loss to the Heat and the Lakers' win over the Clippers, the Jazz now trail them by half a game. Speaking of the Lakers, I watched their game against the Clippers and had one thought that I'd like to share...

From: @reservoirgod 

Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:29p 

Pau Gasol plays like he wears Uggs #NBA 

sent via ÜberTwitter 

On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12725427281862656

See you December 25th, Laker fans!

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.

Heat Produced Page Updated - 12/8/10

The Heat Produced page has been updated with the wins produced stats for the game against the Utah Jazz.

Big Z ended his seven-day scoring drought, Carlos Arroyo followed up a perfect night in Milwaukee with a perfectly awful night in Utah and Wade & LeBron prove they can play together?

Nice win for the Heat. Game recap going up tomorrow.

Heat vs. Jazz: Facing The Music

I caught a lot of flak on Bleacher Report for the article I wrote before the last game between the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat (see HERE and HERE), and so I had to write a preview for the rematch. In my last article, I basically said it would take a miracle for the Jazz to beat the Heat in Miami and, unfortunately, Paul Millsap provided one.

The Jazz entered that game 3-3 and the Heat were 5-2. The Jazz have gone 13-3 since the Musical Miracle by Biscayne Bay while the Heat have only gone 9-6 and the rematch will be played in Utah instead of Miami. So, what are the odds the Heat will get some revenge tonight?

Basketball-reference.com gives Miami a 52 percent chance of avenging last month's miracle. Based on a formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game based on each player's Wins Produced, the Heat have a 42.4 percent chance of beating the Jazz.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat (14-8)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.147 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 90.8 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One  (last game was 88-78 win at Milwaukee on 12/06/10)
• Utah Jazz (16-6)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.131 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 90.9
• Days Rest: One (last game was 94-85 win vs. Memphis on 12/06/10)
• Location: EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT (high altitude)

The Heat are legitimate underdogs in this game. This game will be a test of whether all the talk about the team "figuring it out" after the players-only meeting in Dallas was rhetoric or reality.

I'm hoping it's a new reality for the Heat.

Predicted score: Heat 95, Jazz 91.

For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.

Heat Beat Bucks In Boring Game

I don't have a lot to say about the Heat-Bucks game because it was such a boring affair.

Outside of a great no-look pass from Dwyane Wade to LeBron James for a monster dunk (and one of the best photos in the NBA this year), there wasn't a lot of excitement in this game.

Why wasn't there a lot of excitement? Because the Bucks are a bad basketball team. Any team with Chris Douglas-Roberts in the rotation is not a good team (despite the fact he played well against Miami).

Since the game was so boring, there's no lengthy recap. The wins produced stats are featured below.

The figures below use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Bucks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @BUCKS-120610).

The Heat Produced page has been updated and the biggest change is that Zydrunas Ilgauskas is no longer in the top five thanks to three consecutive games with negative productivity. Big Z has been the least productive player on the team over the last three games with -0.308 EWP48 and -0.314 EWP.

The problem for Big Z? He hasn't scored in a week. He's missed all seven shots he's taken in the last seven days. Hopefully, that changes tonight in Utah.

You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.

Miami Heat Check: The Best Week Of The Season

Last week was the most wonderful time of year for the Miami Heat. How do I know? The stats tell me so...

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The Heat produced more wins last week than any other week of the season with an estimated 4.4 wins produced.

You know it was a good week for the Heat when...

• They're toughest game was against the Washington Wizards playing without John Wall. In Miami's first game of the week, the Wizards produced an estimated 0.088 wins. The flabbiest player in the NBA, Andray Blatche, outplayed Chris Bosh and led the Wizards with 0.286 EWP48. Gilbert Arenas, the stupidest gunslinger in the NBA, had a very good game with 0.204 EWP48. Only two of the other eight Wizards that played made a positive contribution to the game.

• Dwyane Wade plays his most productive game of the season. Wade went off against the Wizards with 0.730 EWP48 and an estimated 0.5 wins produced for his best game of the season.
  
  
  
  Not only was it Wade's best game, it was also the most productive game by any Heat player this season.
  
  
  
  Of course, it helped Wade to play against Nick Young at shooting guard, who had the seventh-lowest estimated wins produced (EWP) of any Heat opponent with -0.186.
  
  The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Wizards. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled WIZARDS-112910).

You know it was a good week for the Heat when...

• They play one of their three best games of the season. The Heat produced an estimated 1.283 wins against the Pistons. In the preview for that game, I wrote that I was worried about Detroit exploiting potential weaknesses in matchups with the Heat at shooting guard, small forward and center. Well, the only matchup the Pistons were able to exploit was at center. Ben Wallace (0.298 EWP48) and Greg Monroe (0.181 EWP48) were their most productive players. Tracy McGrady was the only other Piston that played above average but he was limited to seven minutes of playing time.
  
  The figure below lists the most productive games for the Heat this season.
  

• They won a game without any of the Three Kings being one of the three most productive players on the court. The three most productive Heat players against the Pistons were Mario Chalmers (0.619 EWP48), James Jones (0.329 EWP48) and Eddie House (0.544 EWP48). LeBron James, Wade and Bosh were still very productive and combined to produce an estimated 0.412 wins in 87.3 minutes (0.227 EWP48), but the Chalmers, Jones and House combo was even better with an estimated 0.676 wins produced in 67.4 minutes (0.481 EWP48).
  
  The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Pistons. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled PISTONS-111910).

You know it was a good week for the Heat when...

• They played one of their five best games of the season on the end of a back-to-back. Less than 24 hours after beating the Pistons, the Heat produced an estimated 1.248 wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the most hostile environment they'll probably play in during the regular season. It was obvious the Heat wanted to win this game for LeBron James. Despite having the benefit of 24 hours rest, the Cavs starters were dominated by Miami's starters and outproduced by an estimated 1.351 wins. The only Cleveland starter whose productivity even surpassed zero was Anderson Varejao.
  
• LeBron James played his best game of the season. By now, everyone has heard about LeBron's dominant performance against the Cavs and there's not much I can add. All the praise he's received for that performance was well-deserved. The figure below lists LeBron's top five performances for Miami this season.
  
  
  
  
  The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Cavaliers. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @CAVS-120210).
  
  

You know it was a good week for the Heat when...

• Wade and LeBron each had a top five performance on the same night. Wade had his second-most productive game of the season against the Atlanta Hawks while LeBron followed up his great performance against Cleveland with his fifth-best game of the season. They combined to produce 73 percent of Miami's total estimate for wins produced against the Hawks.
  
• They only played two below average quarters all week.Horford, Mike Bibby, Jason Collins and Josh Powell were the only Hawks whose production rose above zero for the entire game. The only other below average quarter for the Heat last week was the fourth quarter in Cleveland.
  
  The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Hawks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled HAWKS-120410).

The Heat needed this kind of start to the month of December because it's going to be a tough month. They're scheduled to play 16 games in 29 nights with 10 of those games on the road. 

The Heat begin a four-game road trip tonight in Milwaukee. Let's see if they can continue to make this month the most wonderful time of the year after a disappointing start to the season.

You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.

Simmons Says: Attacking The Sports Guy One Tweet At A Time

One of the things I love about this Miami Heat team is that they've brought back my absolute disgust for the Boston Celtics (just check out the Heat Shit List). The Heat have freed me from the bizarro world of the last three NBA seasons that forced me to root for the Celtics because they were the only thing standing between Kobe and the championship.

With my newly restored Celtics hatred, listeners of the Nerd Numbers podcast may think that Arturo Galletti is the Celtics fan that annoys me the most but that's not true. The Celtics fan that's been annoying me the most this season is Bill Simmons.

Simmons' love for the Celtics and beef with LeBron's free agency decision have caused him to say some insanely stupid things about the Heat this season. Simmons pushed me to my breaking point while I was listening to his recent podcast with Steve Kerr during a long commute for work and I had to strike back the only way I could at the time - with Twitter.

The whole point of this article is to re-post my private tweets attacking Simmons (@sportsguy33) in a public forum and then support them with facts.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:23a
I may have to stop listening to @sportsguy33 #NBA podcasts this season because the lunacy RE: Heat is too much. The insistence that Don Nelson (a coach that never made it to the Finals) holds the answer 4 MIA is insane.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10323240358514688

The Facts
The Heat have repeatedly said their goal is to win championships right away. Don Nelson is the only coach in the top 15 of playoff games coached to never get a team to the Finals. The median number of appearances for the top 15 is two trips to the Finals.

So... How will Don Nelson's system help the Miami Heat accomplish their goals?

In Stumbling on Wins, Berri and Martin Schmidt report that Don Nelson is one of the few coaches that had a statistically significant impact on player performance and could be expected to add 11 wins to a team in his first season.

That's great for the regular season, but the goal in Miami is to win championships. And as Carl Bialik pointed out on the Wall Street Journal's sports blog earlier this year, that's something Nelson has been unable to do despite racking up enough wins in his career for at least one title.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:28a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast w/ Steve Kerr - the Heat can't beat BOS/LAL cuz they have Shaq, J.O'Neal, Steve Blake & Matt Barnes. BTW - they got all those players at the lowest salaries in their careers & cuz the Heat didn't want ANY of them. Riley ain't scared. Oh yeah, I almost forgot - they're all either has-beens or never-has-beens. Who the FUCK is scared of Steve Blake? His kids probably aren't scared of him!
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10324372787040256

The Facts
The figure below illustrates the salaries and production of the journeymen and past-their-prime all-stars the Celtics and Lakers added during the off-season.

Okay, I may have gotten a little ahead of myself with this tweet.

Shaq is being paid the lowest salary of his career, but Jermaine O'Neal, Steve Blake and Matt Barnes are not. J.O. is being paid his lowest salary in the last 10 seasons, Blake is being paid his lowest salary in the last  four seasons and Barnes is being paid the second-highest salary of his career. At those salaries, the only player the Heat could have signed under the salary cap was Shaq.

As for them being has-beens or never-has-beens, I think I'm on solid ground.

Shaq and J.O. were both below average players last season and J.O. is having a terrible season so far. Shaq has gotten off to a good start this season, but he's only played more than 70 games twice in the last 10 seasons, so I'm confident his production will drop off at some point this season. The Heat have also outplayed  the Celtics big men head-to-head this season.

Blake has played for six teams in eight seasons and the estimated WP48 for his career is below average. He was slightly above average last season but is way below average this season. Just what you'd expect from a never-has-been. Speaking of which, Barnes has played for eight teams in seven seasons despite being productive for his career. Could his bad attitude be the reason only one team has kept him around for more than one season? Regardless, the Heat have held opposing small forwards to 0.015 EWP48 this season, so Barnes is not a concern.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:30a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcasts: Apparently, the Celtics were a .500 team in the 2nd half of last season cuz 'Sheed didn't care & not cuz KG & Pierce were hurt and all of their older players started to decline.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10325052994093056

The Facts
If you want tangible reasons for the Celtics disappointing regular season instead of Simmons' psychobabble, then read THIS. According to the linked article, Garnett and Pierce produced five less wins in 2010 than they did in 2009. An even bigger reason for Boston's decline, however, was the loss of Leon Powe and Eddie House's production from 2009, which cost them about nine wins.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:32a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcasts: Chris Bosh = Toni Kukoc. That one's so ludicrous I could barely stop laughing long enough to type it.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10325462236528640

The Facts
By my estimation, Bosh has produced 15 more wins than Kukoc in 2,700 less minutes. As the figure below shows, Bosh is better than Kukoc was at every statistical category except for steals, assists and personal fouls.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:40a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: Steve Kerr says Heat need to install a continuity offense, Simmons agrees. Guess what Erik Spoelstra did in training camp? Install a fucking continuity offense! http://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/ask_ira_how_can_the_heats_offense_be_fixed/3492875
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On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10327440719089664

The Facts
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel's blog posts about Spoelstra installing a continuity offense in training camp can be found HERE and HERE.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:45a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: Haslem would be the 11th man on the Heat. C'mon, son. Get da fuck outta here w/ that bullshit. Doc Rivers & Danny Ainge would take Haslem over Big Baby even if they had to contract herpes to seal the deal.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10328638356459520

The Facts
According to the Wins Produced Viewer, Udonis Haslem produced 0.180 wins per 48 minutes this season, which would make him more productive than every power forward that's played for the Celtics except Kevin Garnett. If he were on Boston, Haslem would be the first big man off the bench and the Celtics would be tied with the Spurs for the best record in the NBA.

Not only is Haslem the all-around more productive player, but he's also a better shooter from the high post than Big Baby. According to Hoopdata.com, UD was shooting 53.8 percent from 10-15 feet and 48 percent from 16-23 feet while Big Baby is just shooting a sorry 31.3 percent from 10-15 feet and 36 percent from 16-23 feet. In fact, UD shoots better than Kevin Garnett from the high post.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:48a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: the Heat made a mistake by giving Lakers extra motivation 4 reg. season. Really? Is that what fueled their 4-gm losing streak?
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10329396401410049

The Facts
The fact is that the Lakers got a pass when they lost three games in a row to teams that also beat the Heat while Miami got a rash of articles written about trading Bosh and firing Spoelstra for losing to those teams. The truth is that the Heat have a higher point differential than the Lakers against common opponents.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 8:51a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: Mike Miller & Haslem aren't gonna swing titles Miami's way but Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, Shaq, J. O'neal & Delonte West can swing titles 4 the Celtics/Lakers. C'mon, son... Get da fuck outta here w/ that bullshit.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10330286529187840

The Facts
Arturo Galletti reported this summer that virtually all of a team's production in the playoffs comes from its top six players in minutes played. Guess what that currently means for the Celtics? Shaq (319 minutes), Jermaine O'Neal (124 minutes) and Delonte West (88 minutes) would be meaningless in the playoffs since they fall outside the top six:

Player - Minutes Played
Ray Allen - 704 minutes
Paul Pierce - 673 minutes
Rajon Rondo - 628 minutes
Kevin Garnett - 627 minutes
Glen Davis - 551 minutes
Marquis Daniels - 357 minutes

As for the Lakers, Matt Barnes is one of the top six in minutes played but Steve Blake is not. So the real question is, why don't we here more about the Lakers' vulnerability at point guard?

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 9:00a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: Bulls top 6 of Rose, Noah, Boozer, Deng, Korver & Taj Gibson > Heat top 6 of Wade, LBJ, Bosh, Haslem, Miller & Arroyo. He can't be serious...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10332381089103872

The Facts
Okay, this is a lot closer than I anticipated. The Bulls top six have been slightly more productive than the Heat top six due to the decline in LeBron and Wade's productivity so far.

Since Wade was playing with illness and injuries for a week this season and LeBron isn't likely to continue producing at half the rate he produced last season, I feel confident the Heat will surge past the Bulls by the end of the season.

The Tweet
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 2, 2010 9:08a
More dumbass shit from @sportsguy33 #NBA podcast: Kerr lists his Eastern Conference title contenders & Heat aren't on it. Simmons doesn't correct him. C'mon, son. U can't be serious...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/10334580263354368

The Facts
According to basketball-reference.com, the Heat have the second-best efficiency differential in the Eastern Conference at +8.9. The Magic have an efficiency differential of +9.0 and the Celtics are third at +8.6.

Any conversation about Eastern Conference title contenders that doesn't include the Heat is a dishonest one. I'll be here with a little honesty the next time it happens on the BS Report.

All Wins Produced stats were powered by Nerd Numbers. All Estimated Wins Produced stats were taken from the Heat Produced page.

Heat Produced Page Updated Through 12/1/10

Popcornmachine.net was down, so I couldn't get the box score for the Cavs game, but the Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from the Pistons game. Hopefully the box score will be available tonight.

Two things that stuck out to me about the Pistons game - 1) I loved Carlos Arroyo cheering on Mario Chalmers. The fan base is so divided on those two that it's good to see them supporting each other. 2) I can't believe the Heat blew a team out without any of the Three Kings being the most productive players for Miami.

Tomorrow - recap of Pistons & Cavs games, preview of the Hawks game and a look at the Heat after 20 games.

LeBron James: Toss It Up

With all the debate about whether LeBron should perform his famous pre-game ritual, I wanted to chip in with my opinion:



I've also updated the Heat Shit List with five weeks worth of tweets just in time for the Heat's most-hated night of the season!

Unfortunately, I didn't have time to do a game preview or recap the Pistons game. Enjoy the game tonight.

After "The Decision," Spike Lee said LeBron would need the National Guard when he comes back to Cleveland, but hopefully, that won't be the case tonight.

Pistons vs. Heat: Miami May Need David Blaine To Survive This Trap Game

Only two words came to mind when I looked at the schedule and saw the Detroit Pistons were visiting Miami one day before LeBron James returns to Cleveland - "trap game."

What are the odds that the Pistons can steal a win from Miami while the Heat are looking ahead?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Basketball-reference.com gives Miami an 89 percent chance of beating Detroit. Based on the Wages of Wins Network's formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game (which uses Wins Produced), the Heat have an 87.2 percent chance of beating the Pistons.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat (10-8)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.132 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 91.6 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One  (last game was 105-94 win vs. Washington on 11/29/10)
• Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Detroit Pistons (6-12)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.068 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 89.2
• Days Rest: Zero (last game was 79-90 loss at Orlando on 11/30/10)

So the stats say this should be an easy win for the Heat. Let me explain the traps that the Heat want to avoid.

Trap #1

The first trap is the Pistons shooting guards. 

Detroit employs two shooting guards whose best days are behind them (Rip Hamilton and Tracy McGrady) and one who's coming off an injury-riddled season (Ben Gordon). Dwyane Wade should not take them lightly with matador defense or die on the screens they run around to get open jumpshots.

Shooting guards have produced an average of 0.164 EWP48 against the Heat over the last seven games while Wade was struggling with the flu and an injured wrist. Wade has started to look like his old self in the last three games and the Heat have limited opposing shooting guards to -0.006 EWP48.

Here's a list of shooting guard performances against the Heat in the last three games:

PLAYER (TEAM): EWP48, DATE

1. Andre Iguodala (PHI): 0.489 EWP48, 11/26/10

2. Evan Turner (PHI): -0.268 EWP48, 11/26/10

3. DeShawn Stevenson (DAL): 0.251 EWP48, 11/27/10

4. Jason Terry (DAL): -0.227 EWP48, 11/27/10

5. Kirk Hinrich (WAS): -0.139 EWP48, 11/29/10

6. Nick Young (WAS): -0.269 EWP48, 11/29/10

Even with Wade back to his normal level of production, Iguodala and Stevenson were still able to have productive games. Of the three Pistons shooting guards, only McGrady has been above average this season with 0.158 WP48, but the Heat need to play solid defense to prevent Gordon (0.072 WP48) and Hamilton (0.047 WP48) from providing big production by scoring as they come off screens.

Trap #2

The second trap is Ben Wallace.

Opposing centers have produced an average of 0.141 EWP48 against the Heat in the last seven games and in the last three games that number has spiked to 0.223 EWP48. 

Here's a list of performances by centers against the Heat in the last three games:

PLAYER (TEAM): EWP48, DATE

1. Spencer Hawes (PHI): -0.023 EWP48, 11/26/10

2. Marreese Speights (PHI): 0.113 EWP48, 11/26/10

3. Thaddeus Young (PHI): 0.419 EWP48, 11/26/10

4. Tyson Chandler (DAL): 0.579 EWP48, 11/27/10

5. Brendan Haywood (DAL): -0.245 EWP48, 11/27/10

6. Hilton Armstrong (WAS): -0.104 EWP48, 11/29/10

7. JaVale McGee (WAS): 0.127 EWP48, 11/29/10

If the Heat take the Pistons lightly and don't help the big men keep the Pistons off the offensive boards, then Ben Wallace could ignite a Detroit upset. Wallace is averaging 0.253 WP48 this season.

Fear the 'fro, Heat fans. Fear the 'fro.

Trap #3

The third trap is the Detroit small forwards. 

Tayshaun Prince (0.063 WP48) and Austin Daye (0.037 WP48) have been below average this season, but the Heat have allowed opposing small forwards to be slightly better than average over the last seven games with 0.104 EWP48. There are two problems with this number. 

The first problem is that it represents a huge drop off from the first 11 games of the season when the Heat were holding opponents' small forwards to -0.001 EWP48. The second problem is that the number has increased in the last three games to 0.153 EWP48.

Here's a list of performances by small forwards against the Heat in the last three games:

PLAYER (TEAM): EWP48, DATE

1. Jodie Meeks (PHI): 0.339 EWP48, 11/26/10

2. Andres Nocioni (PHI): -1.182 EWP48, 11/26/10

3. Caron Butler (DAL): 0.188 EWP48, 11/27/10

4. Alonzo Gee (WAS): -0.052 EWP48, 11/29/10

LeBron has to come to play tonight. I can't imagine where his head must be at with the Cleveland game looming in front of him and all the stories about increased security to ensure his safety, but LeBron can't let the Pistons win a matchup with the reigning MVP.

In the last three games, LeBron is averaging -0.021 EWP48 at small forward. His defense against Butler in Dallas was atrocious. He was the second-most productive player for the Heat against the Wizards but 96 percent of his production came when he was playing point guard.

The best way for the Heat to play this game is to put together a dominant performance like they did against the Nets or the Timberwolves and rest the starters in the fourth quarter so they'll have some life in their legs for the back-to-back in Cleveland.

Predicted Score: Heat 99, Pistons 89

The WP48 stats used in this post were powered by Nerd Numbers. The EWP48 stats used in this post are based on original data from the Heat Produced page.