Heat vs. Jazz: Facing The Music

I caught a lot of flak on Bleacher Report for the article I wrote before the last game between the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat (see HERE and HERE), and so I had to write a preview for the rematch. In my last article, I basically said it would take a miracle for the Jazz to beat the Heat in Miami and, unfortunately, Paul Millsap provided one.

The Jazz entered that game 3-3 and the Heat were 5-2. The Jazz have gone 13-3 since the Musical Miracle by Biscayne Bay while the Heat have only gone 9-6 and the rematch will be played in Utah instead of Miami. So, what are the odds the Heat will get some revenge tonight?

Basketball-reference.com gives Miami a 52 percent chance of avenging last month's miracle. Based on a formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game based on each player's Wins Produced, the Heat have a 42.4 percent chance of beating the Jazz.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat (14-8)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.147 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 90.8 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One  (last game was 88-78 win at Milwaukee on 12/06/10)
• Utah Jazz (16-6)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.131 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 90.9
• Days Rest: One (last game was 94-85 win vs. Memphis on 12/06/10)
• Location: EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT (high altitude)

The Heat are legitimate underdogs in this game. This game will be a test of whether all the talk about the team "figuring it out" after the players-only meeting in Dallas was rhetoric or reality.

I'm hoping it's a new reality for the Heat.

Predicted score: Heat 95, Jazz 91.

For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.