Bad defense and too many turnovers left the Miami HEAT below 0.500 after the first 20 games. What will it take to get a better result in the next 20?
There are #4Factors to winning basketball games: shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws.
The figure below shows where the HEAT rank in the 4 Factors on offense and defense after 20 games, according to basketball-reference.com.
It's plain to see the problem: the HEAT's strengths on offense are negated by their weaknesses on defense and vice versa.
The offense is top-5 in shooting efficiency, but the defense ranks 28th in opponent shooting efficiency. The offense is top-5 in getting points at the free throw line, but the defense is bottom-10 in giving up points at the free throw line.
The defense is top-5 in forcing turnovers, but the offense is in the bottom-10 for turning the ball over. The defense is average in rebounding, but the offense ranks 2nd-to-last in rebounding.
My HEAT rotation to put the team in the best position to win would be as follows: Starters - Chalmers, Wade, Deng, UD and Bosh; Reserves - Ennis, Williams, Hamilton, Cole. I would have the 2nd unit play Nolan Richardson's "40 minutes of hell" style w/ Ennis & Cole. Fullcourt press and let Williams and Hamilton launch threes. The HEAT played 'Rio, Wade, Deng, UD and Bosh for less than 1 minute together in the first 20 games, so Erik Spoelstra's got his work cut out for him to figure out the strategies and lineups to balance out the team's performance so they're not shooting themselves in the foot on both sides of the ball.
The tweets below identify which players were part of the problem in the first 20 games.
The table below shows the estimated wins produced from HEAT players' boxscore stats in the first 20 games. This Excel workbook lists the boxscores with estimated wins produced in each game this season.
| PLAYER | GP | MIN | Est.WP48 | EST WP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Bosh | 20 | 705.6 | 0.142 | 2.085 |
| L Deng | 18 | 558.9 | 0.179 | 2.082 |
| D Wade | 13 | 422.4 | 0.189 | 1.666 |
| S Williams | 20 | 514.3 | 0.112 | 1.197 |
| M Chalmers | 20 | 623.1 | 0.089 | 1.157 |
| J Ennis | 20 | 279.6 | 0.165 | 0.960 |
| J Hamilton | 10 | 111.8 | 0.085 | 0.197 |
| N Cole | 16 | 382.7 | 0.012 | 0.099 |
| U Haslem | 12 | 162.4 | 0.025 | 0.083 |
| H Whiteside | 2 | 3.4 | -0.281 | -0.020 |
| A Dawkins | 3 | 12.8 | -0.260 | -0.069 |
| S Brown | 5 | 88.7 | -0.047 | -0.086 |
| C Andersen | 9 | 142 | -0.037 | -0.110 |
| D Granger | 4 | 63.1 | -0.133 | -0.175 |
| S Napier | 20 | 466.2 | -0.019 | -0.185 |
| J McRoberts | 16 | 263 | -0.036 | -0.196 |
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