HEAT Produced: 2014 Preaseason Stats

Mario Chalmers, James Ennis, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Khem Birch were the most productive HEAT players at their positions this preseason.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players increase a team's chance of winning 10% by producing 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average NBA team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Point Guards
Chalmers was still the team's most productive player even though Erik Spoelstra took Rio's starting job from him this preseason. Rio produced 0.8 estimated wins and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 26% per 48 minutes with 44% shooting from three and 3 steals per 36 minutes.

Norris Cole finished right behind Rio with 0.7 estimated wins produced. He used his new starting position to increase the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 20% per 48 minutes with 36% shooting from three and 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Surprisingly, rookie Shabazz Napier production was above average after a disappointing summer league. Although his shooting efficiency was terrible at 41%, Shabazz still produced an estimated 0.4 wins. The HEAT's first round draft pick increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 12% per 48 minutes by getting to the free throw line at a high rate (7 trips per 36 minutes), crashing the glass (4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes) and 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The key to the HEAT having 3 productive point guards this preseason was the defense against opposing point guards, which continued to be elite without LeBron James. The HEAT held opposing point guards to an abysmal 42% shooting efficiency.

If Spoelstra doesn't start Chalmers this season, he should still get more minutes than Cole because Rio's the more productive player. Napier's production should make Spo comfortable using 3-guard lineups, and it should make the front office comfortable with not giving Cole a contract extension and trading him if the right opportunity presents itself this season.

Shooting Guards
Wade dominated the last two preseason games to lead all HEAT shooting guards with an estimated 0.4 wins produced, but he wasn't the most productive shooting guard for the team on a per-minute basis in the preseason. Wade only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 11% per 48 minutes, but Andre Dawkins increased the HEAT's chance of winning by an estimated 19% per 48 minutes in limited playing time.

Shannon Brown production was well below average (0.031 est.WP48). Dawkins was three times more productive than Brown despite appearing in only half as many games. I'd like to his wife Monica sing the national anthem, but I don't want to see Shannon Brown on the floor this season.

Tyler Johnson was the least productive HEAT shooting guard in the preseason (0.003 est.WP48) but didn't get much opportunity to prove himself. That opportunity should come in Sioux Falls with the SkyForce.

Small Forwards
Ennis was the most productive small forward in the preseason with an estimated 0.7 wins produced. The HEAT's 2013 draft pick increased the team's chance of winning by an estimated 23% per 48 minutes with 57% shooting efficiency and 6.4 trips to the free throw line per 36 minutes. The problem for Ennis is the level of competition he faced in the preseason. He basically faced summer league competition and produced the same results. His production was terrible in the game he started vs. the Grizzlies with a -4 Win Score. If he played that way the entire preseason, he would have decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 23% - which is the opposite of the effect he had on the rest of the preseason.

Luol Deng was productive this preseason with 0.4 estimated wins produced that increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 12% per 48 minutes.

Danny Granger was terrible this preseason. He only increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2.5% per 48 minutes and looked like a waste of a roster spot.

Power Forwards
Power forward was the least productive position for the HEAT this preseason without Josh McRoberts. Birch was the only power forward whose production was above average this preseason. He produced an estimated 0.2 wins and increased the HEAT's chance of winning by 12% per 48 minutes with 11.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes, but he only shot 27% from the floor.

Shawne Williams played twice as many minutes as Birch, but he was nearly three times less productive with just 0.040 est.WP48. Udonis Haslem only played in 3 preseason games and was just slightly more productive than Williams with 0.050 est.WP48. Shawn Jones actually decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 2% per 48 minutes when he was on the floor.

Centers
Bosh was the most productive center for the HEAT with 0.6 estimated wins produced. He increased the team's chance of winning by 13% per 48 minutes with 24 points and 9 rebounds per 36 minutes in the preseason.

Chris Andersen looked washed up in preseason with a below average 0.076 est.WP48, but he was hurt. Of course, that may be a permanent characteristic at his age.

Chris Johnson short stint with the HEAT only lasted for 6 minutes in preseason and Justin Hamilton was terrible against the Grizzlies - he decreased the HEAT's chance of winning by 14% per 48 minutes.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box scores for HEAT players at every position during the preseason and their opponents.

All box score data from RealGM.com.