Miami HEAT & the Pacers Chase After the Trade Deadline

Losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves was not a sign the Pacers are falling off and will be passed by the HEAT in the Eastern Conference standings.

The loss to the Timberwolves was the only game on the Pacers schedule after the all-star break that they had less than a 50% chance of winning.

The spreadsheet below lists the win probability of the HEAT and Pacers for every game after the all-star break. The HEAT schedule is tougher than the Pacers which makes overcoming their 2.5-game lead less likely. 

The HEAT have better than a 50% chance of winning in 25 games after the all-star break while the Pacers have better than a 50% chance of winning in 29 games after the all-star break. The HEAT have better than a 60% chance of winning in only 17 games after the all-star break while the Pacers have better than a 60% chance of winning in 25 games after the all-star break.

Replacing Danny Granger's production with Evan Turner's only increases the Pacers' chance of winning by 0.6%. per game. You can see a comparison of their stats here.

If Frank Vogel chooses to replace Luis Scola's production with Lavoy Allen's, then it increases the Pacers' chance of winning by 3.3% per game (you can see a comparison of their stats here). That would make the HEAT's job of catching them even harder.