Heat Produced: How the 2011 Finals Were Lost

The Miami Heat lost the 2011 NBA Finals 4-2. The first season of the Three Kings ended in disappointment and failure with two consecutive bad losses at home.

Yes, it was a failure. All the players expected to win Game 6 and said as much on camera after practice the day before. Jason Jackson, the Miami Heat television host and courtside reporter, said it on the Dan Patrick Show. The goal of this season was to win the title. They didn’t do that. They failed.

The NBA season isn’t high school and this blog ain’t a yearbook. There won’t be any “had a great year” talk here. They lost the NBA Finals to an inferior team. That’s the cold, hard reality of what happened.

Let’s take a cold, hard look at the numbers from the 2011 NBA Finals...

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics


NBA Finals Notes:
The Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for the Eastern Conference Finals can be found on the Heat Produced Page.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade
Wade was the most productive player in the Finals with an estimated 1.4 wins produced from 32.6 points scored with 58 percent shooting efficiency, 8.6 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 3.1 turnovers per 48 minutes (0.278 est.WP48). He was above average in every category except shooting efficiency and turnovers. The Finals were lost when a player who shouldn’t even be in the league, let alone on the floor in the Finals, hip-checked Wade in the middle of his patented side step move in the first quarter of Game 5. He left the game with a hip contusion and was never the same player when he returned.

Brief tangent: Brian Cardinal ranked 390th out of 453 players in Wins Produced this season with -0.042 WP48 and -0.5 Wins Produced. He's played 10 seasons in the NBA. The only player less productive than him with more experience is Jermaine O'Neal who ranked 419th with -0.108 WP48 and -1.0 Wins Produced. He's only in the league for one reason - thuggery. He's a fucking goon and Mark Cuban and Rick Carlisle should be ashamed of themselves. "Purity of the game," my ass.

Wade produced an estimated 1.366 wins in 158.4 minutes played through the first four games of the Finals (0.414 est.WP48). The series was tied 2-2 and the Heat were outscoring the Mavs by 1.4 points per 100 possessions.

Wade produced an estimated -0.013 wins in 75.6 minutes played in the last two games of the Finals (-0.008 est.WP48). His production decreased by 59 percent as his Win Score per 48 minutes went from 19.1 to 7.9. The Heat lost both games and the Mavs outscored them by 10.1 points per 100 possessions despite IMPROVED production from Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem who were the two least productive Heat players after the first four games. Bosh and Haslem combined to produce an estimated -0.5 wins in the first four games (-0.092 est.WP48) but produced an estimated 0.6 wins in the last two games (0.217 est.WP48).

This spreadsheet lists the Heat players’ production in the first four games and the last two games.

Aside from Wade’s performance, the biggest change in the series from Games 1-4 and Games 5-6 was the Heat defense. The Mavs scored 100.9 points per 100 possessions in the first four games and 118.5 points per 100 possessions in the last two games. Which Mavs players improved on offense in the last two games? The guards.

Jason Terry’s shooting efficiency in the first four games was 44 percent. His shooting efficiency in the last two games was 79 percent and his scoring increased by 63 percent.

Jason Kidd’s shooting efficiency in the first four games was 46 percent. His shooting efficiency in the last two games was 85 percent and his scoring increased by 78 percent.

Jose Barea’s shooting efficiency in the first four games was 27 percent. His shooting efficiency in the last two games was 68 percent and his scoring doubled.

Was Wade’s hip injury the sole reason the Heat’s defense got torched by the Mavs backcourt? Pretty much. Wade was not the only person responsible for guarding those players, but would Spoelstra have given Mike Bibby’s minutes to a worse defender (Eddie House) if he didn’t need more scoring on the floor to compensate for Wade’s decline?

This spreadsheet lists the changes in the Mavs production in the first four games and the last two games.

Was it just a coincidence that Terry’s production skyrocketed from -0.101 est.WP48 to 0.287 est.WP48 after bum ass Cardinal injured Wade with a hockey play? While the Dead Basketball Poets Society made so much about LeBron James guarding Terry in the fourth quarter, maybe Wade’s defense in the first three quarters was more important. Just maybe.

As for the Dead Basketball Poets Society’s Finals MVP, Dirk Nowitzki put up a very Kobe-esque 9-27 shooting performance in Game 6 and only produced -0.006 est.WP48. The NBA, where mediocre Finals MVPs happen.

Sixth Man of the Finals: Mario Chalmers
Chalmers was the most productive reserve in the Finals with an estimated 0.6 wins produced from 19.6 points scored with 58 percent shooting efficiency and 2.5 steals per 48 minutes (0.174 est.WP48). Chalmers was above average in shooting efficiency and volume, scoring, steals and turnovers and he was the second-most productive Heat player in the Finals.

Chalmers was the second-most productive Heat player in Games 3-4 and the most productive Heat player in Game 5. Three of Chalmers’ top 20 games this season came in the Finals, as this spreadsheet illustrates.

According to the Dead Basketball Poets Society, the supersub going into the Finals was supposed to be Barea or Terry. Barea was actually the least productive player in the Finals with an estimated -0.3 wins produced (-0.110 est.WP48). Terry was the second least productive player after four games (-0.3 est. wins produced, -0.101 est.WP48) but after his performances in Games 5 and 6 he ended the Finals with an estimated 0.1 wins produced and 0.027 est.WP48.

Despite all the DBPS hype about the Mavs bench going into the Finals, Chalmers and the Heat reserves outplayed them in five of the six games. The only game the Mavs bench outplayed the Heat bench was Game 6 when Chalmers started. The Heat Produced Page charts the bench production in the Finals.

Est. Wins Produced by Reserves in the 2011 Finals

• Game 1: Heat 0.096, Mavs -0.185 
• Game 2: Heat -0.126, Mavs -0.242 
• Game 3: Heat 0.136, Mavs -0.375 
• Game 4: Heat 0.212, Mavs -0.067 
• Game 5: Heat 0.225, Mavs 0.105 
• Game 6: Heat 0.074, Mavs 0.327 

The performance by the Heat reserves was not a surprise. They were more productive than the Mavs reserves all season. The Heat bench ranked 14th by est.WP48 while the Mavs bench ranked 19th.

Best Coach: Rick Carlisle
While the Dead Basketball Poets Society has called for Spoelstra to be fired for his Finals performance, Carlisle only had a slight edge in the coaching match-up as Barea and Terry’s improved play in the last two games made him look like a genius.

The Mavs head coach gave six players (Nowitzki, Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Terry and Barea) 85 percent of the available playing time and they produced an estimated 97 percent of the Mavs wins.

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra gave six players (LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Haslem, Chalmers and Joel Anthony) 84 percent of the available playing time and they produced an estimated 95 percent of the Heat wins.

Aside from Wade’s injury, the biggest problem Spoelstra had was the players who played the most minutes, LeBron and Bosh, provided below average production in the Finals. LeBron produced 0.097 est.WP48 and was below average in free throw shooting, turnovers, blocks and fouls. Bosh produced 0.010 est.WP48 and was below average in shooting efficiency from the floor (not the line), rebounding, steals, turnovers and blocks.

Before the series, the Heat were projected to produce 0.083 est.WP48 at the center position and 0.210 est.WP48 at the small forward position. With below average performances from LeBron and Bosh, the Heat actually produced -0.012 est.WP48 at the center position and 0.138 est.WP48 at the small forward position.

The list below shows how the predictions for each match-up played out.

Finals Match-Ups by Est.WP48

Point Guard

• Projection: Heat 0.062, Mavs 0.138 
• Result: Heat 0.155, Mavs 0.045 
• Most productive Heat player: Chalmers (0.194 est.WP48 in 162 minutes) 

Shooting Guard

• Projection: Heat 0.186, Mavs 0.014 
• Result: Heat 0.170, Mavs 0.030 
• Most productive Heat player: Wade (0.235 est.WP48 in 206 minutes) 

Small Forward

• Projection: Heat 0.210, Mavs -0.010 
• Result: Heat 0.138, Mavs 0.062 
• Most productive Heat player: LeBron (0.152 est.WP48 in 234 minutes) 

Power Forward

• Projection: Heat 0.037, Mavs 0.163 
• Result: Heat 0.010, Mavs 0.190 
• Least productive Heat player: The Warden (-0.055 est.WP48 in 54 minutes) 

Center

• Projection: Heat 0.083, Mavs 0.117 
• Result: Heat -0.012, Mavs 0.212 
• Least productive Heat player: Bosh (-0.019 est.WP48 in 168 minutes) 

The Dead Basketball Poets Society spent a lot of time harping on the fourth quarters in the Finals. Was Spoelstra out-coached in crunch time?

The Heat were outscored by 10.7 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter and the problem was their offensive efficiency dropped to 98.1. The only two players in Spo’s rotation that produced above average in the fourth quarter were Chalmers (0.279 est.WP48) and Wade (0.236 est.WP48). Every other player's production was below zero and, with the exception of Haslem, the problem was their shooting efficiency.

This spreadsheet compares the fourth quarter production for the Heat against the Celtics and Bulls with the production against the Mavs.

Once again, the problem comes back to LeBron (-0.045 est.WP48) and Bosh (-0.160 est.WP48). LeBron’s shooting efficiency in the fourth quarters of the Finals was 36 percent with 14.9 shots per 48 minutes. Against the Celtics and Bulls, LeBron’s shooting efficiency in the fourth quarter was 54 percent with 25.3 shots per 48 minutes. Bosh’s shooting efficiency in the fourth quarters of the Finals was 37 percent with 12.7 shots per 48 minutes. Against the Celtics and Bulls, Bosh’s shooting efficiency in the fourth quarter was 61 percent with just 10.3 shots per 48 minutes.

It’s doubtful that Spoelstra called different plays in the Finals than he called in the previous two rounds that resulted in LeBron being less aggressive and more inaccurate on offense since he’s broken off plays all season. Did LeBron take 41 percent less shots in the fourth quarters of the Finals because he was deferring to Wade? The answer is “no” because Wade’s shot attempts only increased from 19.8 per 48 minutes to 21.3 in the fourth quarters of the Finals.

Whether LeBron stopped shooting because the shots weren’t falling or because he was playing passively is like deciding which came first, the chicken or the egg. Bosh was more aggressive in the Finals with 2.7 more shots per 48 minutes, but neither he nor LeBron shot well enough for the Heat offense to be efficient enough to pull the games out when they were close at the end.

Speaking of close... The most important question the Finals raised about Spoelstra’s coaching was whether or not the Heat need to play a faster style instead of grinding out close games with their defense. Since the Heat have more talent than every team in the NBA, more possessions should equal more opportunity for that talent gap to be reflected on the scoreboard while shrinking the game to less possessions only gives the inferior teams a better chance to stick around.

The Heat averaged 92.6 possessions per game this season according to this simple formula: shot attempts + (0.47*free throw attempts) + turnovers - offensive rebounds. According to basketball-reference.com, the Minnesota Timberwolves used more possessions per game than any other team in the NBA with 96.5. Of course, the Timberwolves were terrible and only won 17 games playing that pace but they don’t have the Heat’s talent.

How did the Heat fare playing at that pace this season? The Heat used 95 possessions or more in 37 games this season. Their record in those games was 27-10 and they maintained their season average for offensive efficiency. Sixteen of those games were against playoff teams — Hawks, Celtics, Bulls, Mavs, Nuggets, Pacers, Knicks, Thunder, Sixers, Blazers and Spurs. The Heat’s record in those games was 8-8 and they actually scored six less points than their season average per 100 possessions.

The Heat used 92 possessions or less in 48 games this season. Their record in those games was 34-14 and they maintained their season average for offensive efficiency. Thirty-five of those games were against playoff teams. The Heat’s record in those games was 23-12 and the offensive efficiency only dropped by one point per 100 possessions.

It appears that Spoelstra had the team playing the right style in the Finals with their current personnel. The Heat just needed a healthy Wade to win with that style. Carlisle’s goon made sure that wouldn’t be the case. Looks like he out-coached Spo after all.

The Heat's estimated wins produced stats for the entire playoffs and regular season are posted on the Heat Produced Page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.