Saturday, February 5, 2011

Off the Index: The NBA's 50 Greatest Players - 2011 Remix

The announcement of the 2011 NBA All-Stars last night has triggered the expected debates about who is or isn't one of the top 24 players in the game this season.

Those debates are fine, but the 2 Live Stews debated a much more interesting topic on their sports talk radio show last week - if they updated the NBA's 50 Greatest Players, then who would be added to the list and who would they replace?

The original 50 greatest NBA players were selected by "a blue-ribbon panel of media, former players and coaches, current and former general managers and team executives" in 1996 and honored at halftime of the 1997 All-Star Game in Cleveland. How can we determine which players should be honored at halftime of the 2011 All-Star Game in Los Angeles (if the NBA was inclined to do such a thing)?

Wins Produced is a great metric for that kind of debate, so let's see what the numbers have to say about the NBA's 50 Greatest Players.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Before we get started, let's establish some ground rules for updating the list of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players:

  1. Since Wins Produced can only be calculated with statistics that go back to the 1977-78 season, any one that played the majority of their career before 1978 cannot be removed from the list.
  2. Wins Produced is great for measuring the production of a player's game, but the 50 greatest players should have form and function. They have to look like a great player and this has to be validated by a group similar to the one that selected the original 50 greatest players. To meet that criteria, the only players that will be considered for addition to the list will be those that have a greater than 50% chance of being selected to the Hall of Fame, according to basketball-reference.com's Hall of Fame Probability model.
That's it, those are the rules. 

Let's start the update of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players with the guards...


There were 18 guards selected to the NBA's 50 Greatest Players list and 12 of them played the majority of their career before 1978. That leaves six players whose spots are up for grabs:
  1. John Stockton, 311.1 Wins Produced
  2. Magic Johnson, 297.3 Wins Produced
  3. Michael Jordan, 283.6 Wins Produced
  4. Clyde Drexler, 222.9 Wins Produced
  5. George Gervin, 106.7 Estimated Wins Produced
  6. Isiah Thomas, 97.4 Wins Produced
The Wins Produced numbers for Stockton, Johnson, Jordan and Drexler were taken from this post by WoW Journalist Arturo Galletti. Wins Produced numbers for Gervin were estimated from data at basketball-reference.com using this method. Wins Produced numbers for Thomas were taken from the Wages of Wins Journal.

According to this post from Arturo Galletti, there are five guards that rank in the NBA's top 30 for career wins produced but were not selected for the NBA's 50 Greatest Players in 1996:
  1. Jason Kidd, 278.5 Wins Produced, 91.1% probability for Hall of Fame
  2. Mark Jackson, 174.1 Wins Produced, 0.5% probability for Hall of Fame
  3. Gary Payton, 169.5 Wins Produced, 87.4% probability for Hall of Fame
  4. Reggie Miller, 162.9 Wins Produced, 5.5% probability for Hall of Fame
  5. Kobe Bryant, 159.0 Wins Produced, 100% probability for Hall of Fame
It looks like Kidd and Payton bump Gervin and Thomas from the list and Kobe's lurking to pick off any low hanging fruit from the forwards and centers.

Speaking of forwards...


There were 17 forwards selected for the NBA's 50 Greatest Players list and 10 of them played the majority of their careers before 1978. That leaves seven players whose spots are up for grabs:
  1. Charles Barkley, 313.6 Wins Produced
  2. Karl Malone, 291.6 Wins Produced
  3. Larry Bird, 262.6 Wins Produced
  4. Scottie Pippen, 198.1 Wins Produced
  5. Julius Erving, 165.8 Estimated Wins Produced
  6. Kevin McHale, 112.3 Wins Produced
  7. James Worthy, 77.6 Wins Produced
The Wins Produced numbers for Barkley, Malone, Bird and Pippen were taken from this post by WoW Journalist Arturo Galletti. Wins Produced numbers for McHale and Worthy were taken from the Wages of Wins Journal. The Wins Produced by Erving were estimated from data at basketball-reference.com using this method.

According to this post from Arturo Galletti, there are seven forwards that rank in the NBA's top 30 for career wins produced but were not selected for the NBA's 50 Greatest Players in 1996:
  1. Kevin Garnett, 282.7 Wins Produced, 99.8% probability for Hall of Fame
  2. Dennis Rodman, 242.6 Wins Produced, 45.5% probability for Hall of Fame
  3. Tim Duncan, 235.8 Wins Produced, 100% probability for Hall of Fame
  4. Buck Williams, 197.5 Wins Produced, 1.8% probability for Hall of Fame
  5. Shawn Marion, 176.1 Wins Produced, 37.4% probability for Hall of Fame
  6. Larry Nance, 154.6 Wins Produced, 4.5% probability for Hall of Fame
  7. Charles Oakley, 152.4 Wins Produced, 0.2% probability for Hall of Fame
Garnett and Duncan bump McHale and Big Game James from the list, and then things get interesting. The Wins Produced by Dr. J were estimated to be 165.8, but since Arturo's post didn't include him in the list of the top 30 players in career wins produced (where the 30th-ranked player produced 151.4 wins) it's safe to say that estimate is a little too high. So Kobe bumps Dr. J to the front of the waiting list with McHale, Gervin, Thomas and Worthy in case any centers come up short.

Let's take a measure of the centers...


There were 15 centers selected for the NBA's 50 Greatest Players list and eight of them played the majority of their careers before 1978. One of those eight players was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Kareem entered the NBA in 1970 and played until 1989. Technically, he played the majority of his career after 1978, but the majority of his most productive seasons came before then, so I'm granting him the same immunity as the other legacy players.

So with the Kareem exception, that leaves seven players whose spots are up for grabs:
  1. Hakeem Olajuwon, 261.8 Wins Produced
  2. Shaquille O'Neal, 251.1 Wins Produced
  3. David Robinson, 250.2 Wins Produced
  4. Moses Malone, 237.1 Wins Produced
  5. Robert Parish, 207.6 Wins Produced
  6. Patrick Ewing, 172.2 Wins Produced
  7. Bill Walton, 117.1 Estimated Wins Produced
The Wins Produced numbers for every center except Walton were taken from this post by WoW Journalist Arturo Galletti. Wins Produced numbers for Walton were estimated from data at basketball-reference.com using this method.

According to this post from Arturo Galletti, there are four centers that rank in the NBA's top 30 for career wins produced but were not selected for the NBA's 50 Greatest Players in 1996:
  1. Dikembe Mutombo, 208.0 Wins Produced, 3.3% probability for Hall of Fame
  2. Ben Wallace, 192.2 Wins Produced, 0.5% probability for Hall of Fame
  3. Jack Sikma, 152.7 Wins Produced, 58.8% probability for Hall of Fame
  4. Bill Laimbeer, 151.4 Wins Produced, 13.8% probability for Hall of Fame
An argument could be made for Sikma (fear the permafro!) but since he was originally passed over for Walton in 1996, I'm not going to put him ahead of Walton in 2011. I will, however, knock Walton off the list for Dr. J since he seems to have been the much more productive player over his NBA career (even if health was the primary reason).

To rewind, I think the following players should be removed from the 50 greatest players list (this hurts):
  • Bill Walton, 117.1 Estimated Wins Produced
  • Kevin McHale, 112.3 Wins Produced
  • George Gervin, 106.7 Estimated Wins Produced
  • Isiah Thomas, 97.4 Wins Produced
  • James Worthy, 77.6 Wins Produced

And the following players should replace them:
  • Kevin Garnett, 282.7 Wins Produced, 99.8% probability for Hall of Fame
  • Jason Kidd, 278.5 Wins Produced, 91.1% probability for Hall of Fame
  • Tim Duncan, 235.8 Wins Produced, 100% probability for Hall of Fame
  • Gary Payton, 169.5 Wins Produced, 87.4% probability for Hall of Fame
  • Kobe Bryant, 159.0 Wins Produced, 100% probability for Hall of Fame

  1. Bob Cousy (G) - Six titles, One MVP, 10-time All-NBA First Team
  2. Bill Sharman (G) - Four titles, Four-time All-NBA First Team
  3. Sam Jones (G) - 10 titles, Five-time All-Star 
  4. Hal Greer (G) - One title, 10-time NBA All-Star
  5. Oscar Robertson (G) - One title, One MVP, Nine-time All-NBA First Team
  6. Jerry West (G) - One title, One Finals MVP, 10-time All-NBA First Team
  7. Lenny Wilkens (G) - Nine-time NBA All-Star
  8. Dave Bing (G) - Two-time All-NBA First Team
  9. Walt Frazier (G) - Two titles, Four-time All-NBA First Team
  10. Earl Monroe (G) - One title, Four-time NBA All-Star
  11. Tiny Archibald (G) - One title, Three-time All-NBA First Team
  12. Pete Maravich (G) - Two-time All-NBA First Team, Five-time All-Star
  13. John Stockton (G) - 311.1 Wins Produced
  14. Magic Johnson (G) - 297.3 Wins Produced
  15. Michael Jordan (G) - 283.6 Wins Produced
  16. Jason Kidd (G) - 278.5 Wins Produced
  17. Clyde Drexler (G) - 222.9 Wins Produced
  18. Gary Payton (G) - 169.5 Wins Produced
  19. Kobe Bryant (G) - 159.0 Wins Produced
  20. Dolph Schayes (F) - One title, Six-time All-NBA First Team
  21. Paul Arizin (F) - One title, Three-time All-NBA First Team
  22. Bob Pettit (F) - One title, Two-time MVP, 10-time All-NBA First Team
  23. Elgin Baylor (F) - 10-time All-NBA First Team
  24. Dave DeBusschere (F) - Two titles, Eight-time All-Star
  25. John Havlicek (F) - Eight titles, One Finals MVP, Four-time All-NBA First Team
  26. Jerry Lucas (F) - One title, Three-time All-NBA First Team
  27. Rick Barry (F) - One title, One Finals MVP, Five-time All-NBA First Team
  28. Billy Cunningham (F) - One title, Three-time All-NBA First Team
  29. Elvin Hayes (F) - One title, Three-time All-NBA First Team, 12-time All-Star
  30. Charles Barkley (F) - 313.6 Wins Produced
  31. Karl Malone (F) - 291.6 Wins Produced
  32. Kevin Garnett (F) - 282.7 Wins Produced
  33. Larry Bird (F) - 262.6 Wins Produced
  34. Tim Duncan (F) - 235.8 Wins Produced
  35. Scottie Pippen (F) - 198.1 Wins Produced
  36. Julius Erving (F) - One title, One-time MVP, Five-time All-NBA First Team
  37. George Mikan (C) - Four titles, Five-time All-NBA First Team
  38. Bill Russell (C) - 11 titles, Five-time MVP, Three-time All-NBA First Team
  39. Wilt Chamberlain (C) - Two titles, One Finals MVP, Four-time MVP
  40. Nate Thurmond (C) - Seven-time All-Star
  41. Willis Reed (C) - Two titles, One-time MVP, One-time All-NBA First Team
  42. Wes Unseld (C) - One title, One Finals MVP, One-time MVP
  43. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (C) - Six titles, Six-time MVP
  44. Dave Cowens (C) - Two titles, One-time MVP
  45. Hakeem Olajuwon (C) - 261.8 Wins Produced
  46. Shaquille O'Neal (C) - 251.1 Wins Produced
  47. David Robinson (C) - 250.2 Wins Produced
  48. Moses Malone (C) - 237.1 Wins Produced
  49. Robert Parish (C) - 207.6 Wins Produced
  50. Patrick Ewing (C) - 172.2 Wins Produced
Disagree with the list? Leave a comment.

Want to know when a Heat player will crack the list? Well, Dwyane Wade has produced 102 wins in his career to-date (see NerdNumbers) and probably needs 50 wins to pass Dr. J. Wade's career average WP48 is 0.254. He would need to maintain that average for another 9,500 minutes (or about four seasons) to produce enough wins to crack the NBA's 50 Greatest Players. That will be a tough task at 33 years-old, but if Kobe can average 0.214 WP48 at that age, then Wade can definitely do it.

So five years from now I expect to be updating this list with Wade's name and numbers.

Devin, Arturo, Dre, Prof. Berri - tag, you're it. I'd love to know who you would select as the 50 Greatest NBA Players.

UPDATED 2/5/11: 
LeBron James has produced 139.6 wins coming into this season and 153 wins to-date (see NerdNumbers). So next season, LeBron will replace Dr. J on this list without question. The question is whether he'll be the ninth player on the list without a ring...

I think we all know the answer to that.


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    8 comments:

    1. DDignamFebruary 5, 2011 at 3:25 PM

      Interesting idea about maintaining the pre-1978 players. My feelings is that these players tend to be the most overrated and least deserving on the list, and so I'd probably do my best to estimate their WP numbers and kick them off if they couldn't cut it (and most of them wouldn't).

      Rodman needs to go in any list of 50 greatest players. I'd strongly consider Dikembe, Ben Wallace, and Laimbeer as well.

      In a couple of years, I'm sure James, Howard, Wade, and Paul will be close to making this list. I'd also add Blake Griffin and Kevin Love, but they haven't been doing it long enough yet.

      ReplyDelete
    2. reservoirgodFebruary 5, 2011 at 3:43 PM

      Devin:

      I updated the post w/ LeBron's numbers. I left him off originally because I wasn't sure if he'd produce the majority of his career wins in Miami, but when he wins titles w/ the Heat that's the team he'll be identified with.

      I understand your point about the pre-78 players, but as a kid I read "The Modern Encyclopedia of Basketball", ed. Zander Hollander 1968 (rev 1972) from cover-to-cover... twice. So I have a fondness for the old-school players and wanted them grandfathered in because most people wouldn't know who they are otherwise.

      ReplyDelete
    3. reservoirgodFebruary 5, 2011 at 3:44 PM

      Devin - are you going to do your own post on the 50 greatest? I'd be very interested to see what else you'd do with it.

      ReplyDelete
    4. NVFebruary 7, 2011 at 1:10 PM

      Fascinating read. I find Miller to be an aberration. His HOF% being so low but he's still up here with guards on wins produced. Clearly I'm not the first to point this out- considering they have a whole post to explain Miller's odds.

      However, with him leading the nominations this year I think this may be an example where the player proves the model wrong. Or perhaps a reason to incorporate wins produced into the model? Also Dikembe Mutombo seems like another noteworthy addition and another case where the model's lack of defensive metrics seems to be undervaluing the potential of a player.. but we'll have to wait awhile on whether Mutombo proves them wrong.

      ReplyDelete
    5. reservoirgodFebruary 7, 2011 at 5:54 PM

      If the hall of fame appreciated defense, then Mutombo would definitely make the 50 Greatest Players list - he produced more than enough wins in his career.

      Some readers at Bleacher Report also questioned Miller's hall of fame probability, but I've heard Reggie Miller say that he doesn't think he's a hall-of-famer. Some people say he was just being modest, but I don't think so. He was a great shooter and efficient scorer, but I honestly don't think he's a hall of famer, either. He flopped to get to the free throw line, and he didn't anything extremely well outside of shooting the basketball.

      ReplyDelete
    6. DDignamFebruary 8, 2011 at 1:47 AM

      Mosi:

      Sure! I'll put together a post on this sometime soon. It'll be fun.

      ReplyDelete
    7. James SatterleeJune 24, 2012 at 5:13 PM

      This list looks old, and how is Bill Sharman rank higher than his Airness? This is a querky list and doesn't consider all factors.

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. reservoirgodJune 24, 2012 at 6:16 PM

        James:

        1) The post is dated 2/5/11.
        2) The players aren't ranked. They're just grouped by position and listed from oldest to youngest or by wins produced, if it's available.

        Delete

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