This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Talk about a tale of two halves...
The Warriors produced an estimated 0.986 wins in the first half of this game thanks to an adjusted shooting percentage of 75 percent against a Heat defense that, quite honestly, looked hungover.
The second half was a completely different story as the Heat locked the Warriors down. Their adjusted shooting percentage was only 33.7 percent in the second half and the Warriors' production was rapidly reversed to an estimated -0.932 wins produced.
Chris Bosh was the most productive Heat player in both halves. He produced an estimated 0.215 wins in the first half with 0.540 EWP48. The second-most productive player in the first half was Dwyane Wade with an estimated 0.145 wins produced and 0.340 EWP48. The problem in the first half was that Joel Anthony, Juwan Howard and Mario Chalmers came off the bench to produce an estimated -0.166 wins.
The big men led the way in the second half.
Bosh produced an estimated 0.144 wins in the second half (with 0.342 EWP48) by grabbing five rebounds in the fourth quarter to help the Heat take the lead as they shutdown the Warriors' offense.
Joel Anthony came off the bench in the second half to produce an estimated 0.130 wins with 0.395 EWP48. Doc grabbed all seven of his rebounds in the second half and also added two blocks to anchor the Heat defense.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas produced an estimated 0.105 wins in the third quarter with 0.616 EWP48. Big Z grabbed three rebounds and two steals as well as blocking one shot to help the Heat cut the Warriors' halftime lead in half by the time he went to the bench with 3:48 left to play in the third quarter.
Juwan Howard and Mario Chalmers also redeemed themselves in the second half by combining to produce an estimated 0.126 wins with 0.350 EWP48.
The final story from this game was the battle at small forward. Dorell Wright neutralized LeBron James' production in his return to Miami by shooting the lights out with an adjusted shooting percentage of 71.4 percent and 30 points to counter LeBron's 25 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists. Their performance resulted in the average Win Score for small forwards in the game being 13.3 per 48 minutes, which was the highest of any position.
If you want more commentary on the game, then check out the Miami Heat Index Twitter feed in the sidebar on the left.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Rockets. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled WARRIORS-010111).
You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.
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