Friday, December 31, 2010
Heat Produced: Miami 125, Houston Rockets 119
The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night.
Sneaker Prophets: Fast Don't Lie and Quick Can't Be Caught
I got some great comments from E.J. regarding statements I made in the last post about the Heat's speed advantage.
Here are a few of E.J.'s comments that I want to talk about:
I was thrown off from understanding you in the post by this line, I think: "The last three titles were decided by size. Those days are over. The NBA is about speed now." Which seems to imply that size teams can't be effective anymore. It still can, teams just have to have as much size talent as the Lakers or Celtics to do it.
It occurs to me that this is Berri's "short supply of tall people" effect being exacerbated by hoarding, to the extent that teams are now trying to find game plans that just do without the tall people.
And I don't think it's too surprising that Boston chose to go the size route; size is the very deeply established wisdom in the NBA.
I actually don't think another team will win the NBA title in the next five years with size because there aren't any dominant big men in the league right now but there are dominant speed players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh.
Here are a few of E.J.'s comments that I want to talk about:
I was thrown off from understanding you in the post by this line, I think: "The last three titles were decided by size. Those days are over. The NBA is about speed now." Which seems to imply that size teams can't be effective anymore. It still can, teams just have to have as much size talent as the Lakers or Celtics to do it.
It occurs to me that this is Berri's "short supply of tall people" effect being exacerbated by hoarding, to the extent that teams are now trying to find game plans that just do without the tall people.
And I don't think it's too surprising that Boston chose to go the size route; size is the very deeply established wisdom in the NBA.
I actually don't think another team will win the NBA title in the next five years with size because there aren't any dominant big men in the league right now but there are dominant speed players like LeBron, Wade and Bosh.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Heat Produced: Miami 106, New York 98
The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from last night's 106-98 win over the New York Knicks.
While posting the update, I was listening to The B.S. Report: 12/29: "Bill Simmons and J.A. Adande discuss whether it's time to panic about the Lakers, the emergence of Blake Griffin and more from the NBA."
There were some interesting points made in the podcast that were not only relevant to the Heat-Lakers game, but the Heat-Knicks matchup last night, too.
This is an important point. While everyone was focusing on the Heat's weakness in the middle they missed the fact that the NBA changed over night. The last three titles were decided by size. Those days are over. The NBA is about speed now.
Wait, one last note - Chris Bosh outplayed Amare Stoudemire again. Much like the game itself, don't get fooled by the scoring totals. Bosh was much more efficient shooting the ball and had a better overall game.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
While posting the update, I was listening to The B.S. Report: 12/29: "Bill Simmons and J.A. Adande discuss whether it's time to panic about the Lakers, the emergence of Blake Griffin and more from the NBA."
There were some interesting points made in the podcast that were not only relevant to the Heat-Lakers game, but the Heat-Knicks matchup last night, too.
- Despite all the talk that the Lakers didn't try to win their Christmas game against the Heat, Adande admits that Phil Jackson went after the win by playing Kobe 40 minutes. I'm glad someone from ESPN finally told the truth about that game.
- Of course, Adande then takes a shot at LeBron by saying his performance against the Lakers was disappointing because he didn't come out hell-bent on destroying the Lakers. The truth is that LeBron had his most productive game of the season against the Lakers with an estimated 0.745 WP48 and 0.593 wins produced. LeBron produced an estimated 0.667 WP48 and 0.417 wins produced against the Cavaliers. I give Simmons credit for defending LeBron's performance. I give Adande credit for reinforcing the notion that Kobe fans are delusional, misguided souls.
- Simmons says the Heat made the Lakers look old and slow.
This is an important point. While everyone was focusing on the Heat's weakness in the middle they missed the fact that the NBA changed over night. The last three titles were decided by size. Those days are over. The NBA is about speed now.
The only established team that noticed it before the season began was Gregg Popovich and the Spurs (oddly enough, they were the only team to congratulate the Heat on their off-season transactions). The Magic caught on after their slow start and I believe that's why they made the trade for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas.
The Heat have speed in spades. You cannot run with the Heat and that's why these games against the Knicks were important.
The Celtics have struggled against the Knicks this year. They've won two games by a total of just six points. The Knicks are improved, but they shouldn't be good enough to play the Celtics to a -6 point differential after two games. The Knicks did to the Celtics what the Heat did to the Lakers - they made them look old and slow.
Imagine what the new Heat running game will do to the Celtics. I believe they will make them look old and slow when they play them on February 13th.
OK - now back to the Knicks. If this game wasn't over at halftime, it was definitely over after three quarters. The Knicks only produced an estimated -0.250 wins after two quarters. After three quarters, the Knicks' production increased to an estimated -0.216 wins produced while the Heat had produced an estimated 0.810 wins.
An estimated advantage of 1.026 wins produced after three quarters makes the fourth quarter "extended garbage time" as Marv Albert would say. No matter how close the final score looked, the Heat produced an estimated 0.946 wins to an estimated 0.054 wins produced by the Knicks.
One other note on this game I'd like to make is Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Andres Alvarez has been posting about Perfect Wins Produced Games on the Nerd Numbers blog and last night Big Z had one of those type of games. His estimated WP48 was 1.250! He only played 14.2 minutes in the game but it was still enough to be the most productive Heat player on the floor. It was his best game of the season so far.
Wait, one last note - Chris Bosh outplayed Amare Stoudemire again. Much like the game itself, don't get fooled by the scoring totals. Bosh was much more efficient shooting the ball and had a better overall game.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Knicks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled KNICKS-122810).
You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.
Check out Hot Hot Hoops on The No-Look Pass podcast
This is from Christmas Eve, but it's always good to hear intelligent Heat bloggers on a podcast. Of course, my favorite part was the shoutout to Sherman Douglas.
The fine folks over at The No-Look Pass invited both myself and Raul to discuss the Miami Heat and the upcoming Christmas showdown against the Los Angeles Lakers, among other things. The curiously titled “Chronicles of Crotty” podcast (named after former Heat guard and current Heat radio broadcaster John Crotty) can be found here.
Thanks to Rey Moralde for inviting us and hope you enjoy it!
(Our own Hot Hot Hoops podcast has been delayed a bit due to illness but stay tuned for a new episode coming soon.)
Monday, December 27, 2010
NBA Christmas Carol: Starring LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Tracy McGrady & David Stern
I've posted some thoughts on NBA Christmas games at Bleacher Report:
NBA X-Mas Carol: Starring LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Tracy McGrady & David Stern | Bleacher Report
Wins Produced analysis of the boxscore for the Heat-Lakers games is embedded below and can also be viewed at Google Docs.
NBA X-Mas Carol: Starring LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Tracy McGrady & David Stern | Bleacher Report
The article is a slideshow that uses Charles Dickens' A Christmas Carol to identify the best Christmas players in the NBA from the past, present and immediate future of the 21st century. The slideshow is Powered By NerdNumbers since Andres Alvarez was kind enough to provide me with wins produced data for every Christmas game played from 2000 to 2009.
Wins Produced stats for players in all 21st century Christmas games and boxscores for games between the Bulls, Knicks, Celtics, Magic, Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors and Blazers are embedded below and can also be viewed at Google Docs.
Wins Produced stats for players in all 21st century Christmas games and boxscores for games between the Bulls, Knicks, Celtics, Magic, Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors and Blazers are embedded below and can also be viewed at Google Docs.
Wins Produced analysis of the boxscore for the Heat-Lakers games is embedded below and can also be viewed at Google Docs.
Also, the Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from games against the Suns and Lakers.
Lastly, a quick Heat check:
- LeBron James had an amazing holiday weekend against the Suns and Lakers with an estimated 1.1 wins produced from his two best games of the season. Those performances, in conjunction with Wade's injured knee, resulted in LeBron taking over the lead for Miami in Heat Produced.
- Chris Bosh has improved his possession stats (rebounds, steals and turnovers) to the point where his at least average at his position in all statistical categories. No other member of the Heat can say that.
- As a result of Bosh's improvement, all Three Kings have an estimated WP48 of 0.200 or higher. That's star power, baby.
- Mike Miller came back at just the right time since James Jones' production is starting to slip. Jones only produced an estimated -0.3 wins last week. Of course, Miller was terrible last week, too. He didn't hit a shot in 25 minutes of playing time and only produced -0.341 WP48, but the sooner he gets going the better.
- Mario Chalmers missed his first free throw of the season on Christmas Day against the Lakers.
- Erick Dampier cannot shoot or score, but his performance is above average in the non-scoring categories and his per-minute productivity has increased to 0.134 EWP48.
All stats from Christmas 2000-2009 are Powered By NerdNumbers. All other stats were calculated using original data taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Heat Produced Page Updated - 12/23/10
The Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from Monday's game against the Mavericks.
Andres "Dre" Alvarez, of the Nerd Numbers blog, summarized the numbers very succinctly in an email to me:
"Looking over the numbers from last night it looks like LeBron was average (which is bad in LeBron land), Miller was off, but Arroyo TANKED you. [The Heat] had over 0.6 WP without Arroyo (in theory a slight win) but Arroyo dropped Miami to around .4. Also Barea played amazing."
The one other stat that quickly jumped out to me was fourth quarter rebounding. The Mavericks out-rebounded the Heat 16-5 in the fourth quarter. And with that, here's the box score...
Andres "Dre" Alvarez, of the Nerd Numbers blog, summarized the numbers very succinctly in an email to me:
"Looking over the numbers from last night it looks like LeBron was average (which is bad in LeBron land), Miller was off, but Arroyo TANKED you. [The Heat] had over 0.6 WP without Arroyo (in theory a slight win) but Arroyo dropped Miami to around .4. Also Barea played amazing."
The one other stat that quickly jumped out to me was fourth quarter rebounding. The Mavericks out-rebounded the Heat 16-5 in the fourth quarter. And with that, here's the box score...
The game felt more like a loss to the schedule-makers than a loss to the Mavs, but really that's just an excuse since Miami hasn't beaten Dallas in the last 14 regular season games.
This post was going to be a longer recap and preview of the Suns game, but I got an early Christmas present from Dre that I'm going to use to write a great post on the big Dec. 25th game instead.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Heat Produced: The Week That Was and the Week That Will Be
The Miami Heat went 4-0 last week as they extended their winning streak to 12 games. Which players made the biggest contributions to the streak last week and what are the odds the Heat can extend that winning streak to 13 against the Dallas Mavericks?
Surprises of the Week: Point Guards & Big Men
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
The Heat offense averaged 111 points per 100 possessions last week while the defense gave up an average 99.9 points per 100 possessions for an efficiency differential of 11.2 points per 100 possessions (i.e. offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). A team with that differential would have been expected to produce 3.4 wins last week and Miami came close with an estimated 3.3 wins produced. The spreadsheet below shows which players were responsible for those 3.3 estimated wins produced.
Most Productive Player of the Week: Dwyane Wade
The most productive player for the Heat last week was Dwyane Wade with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.243 EWP48. This shouldn't be a surprise to regular readers of the Miami Heat Index because Wade has led the team in estimated wins produced for most of the season.
The most productive player for the Heat last week was Dwyane Wade with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.243 EWP48. This shouldn't be a surprise to regular readers of the Miami Heat Index because Wade has led the team in estimated wins produced for most of the season.
Wade had two big games last week against the New Orleans Hornets and New York Knicks with 0.572 EWP48 and 0.426 EWP48, respectively. Those were the two most productive games for any Heat player last week. The figure below lists the top 5 performances by Heat players last week.
As you can see, Wade wasn't the only player to have a big game against the Knicks. LeBron James produced 0.393 EWP48 on his way to a triple-double and Carlos Arroyo produced the sixth-best performance of the week for Miami with 0.408 EWP48. In fact, four of the five Heat starters had an EWP48 greater than 0.300 against New York. Chris Bosh only produced 0.198 EWP48 while holding Amare Stoudemire to 0.077 EWP48.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Knicks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @KNICKS-121710).
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Knicks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @KNICKS-121710).
Enough has been written on the Internet about the Knicks-Heat game. As for the Hornets, Wade's productivity against them shouldn't be a surprise to regular readers of this blog because he had a big game against them six weeks ago, with 0.491 EWP48. Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Hornets was posted HERE.
Surprises of the Week: Point Guards & Big Men
What should be a surprise is that the Heat got more production from the point guard position than the shooting guard position last week. Despite the myth that the Heat are weak at point guard, they actually held the point guards for four teams that started Chris Paul, Mo Williams, Raymond Felton and Kirk Hinrich to an estimated zero wins produced while Arroyo and Mario Chalmers combined to produce an estimated 0.8 wins.
The two point guard stats that jump out are shooting efficiency and turnovers. Miami held opposing point guards to an adjusted shooting percentage of 31.5 percent while Heat point guards shot 56.5 percent and only averaged one turnover per 48 minutes.
The biggest game for a Heat point guard last week was Saturday night's wild game against the Wizards. Chalmers was the most productive player for the Heat in that game with 0.426 EWP48. Seventy-nine percent of Chalmers' production came in the second quarter, which was the team's best period in the game and kept them in striking distance by cutting the lead to one point at halftime. The Heat produced an estimated 0.618 wins produced against the Wizards and 53 percent of that production came in the second quarter led by Chalmers.
Another interesting stat from that Wizards game is Chris Bosh's fourth quarter. Israel Gutierrez did a great job summarizing Bosh's performance on the Miami Herald blog.
Bosh produced -0.346 EWP48 through three quarters against the Wizards with eight points on seven shots, five rebounds and six turnovers in 26.2 minutes. In the fourth quarter, Bosh made up for all of that with 12 points on three shots, four rebounds and one turnover in nine-and-a-half minutes to produce 1.083 EWP48. Bosh's fourth quarter was the most productive quarter in the game for any player. He scored half the Heat's points, took half their free throws and grabbed 36 percent of the team's rebounds.
While Bosh owned the fourth quarter in Washington D.C., it was still his worst performance of the week. Surprisingly, the best power forward in the game was Juwan Howard with 0.593 EWP48 and an estimated 0.148 wins produced. Howard scored four points and grabbed six rebounds in 12 minutes to keep the Heat competitive until Bosh took over.
Howard's performance was surprising this week because he's been below average for the season with just 0.059 EWP48. He was the least productive player on the floor against the Hornets and Cavs earlier in the week (-0.283 EWP48), but put together back-to-back, above average performances against the Knicks and Wizards to end last week with an average of 0.101 EWP48.
Most Productive Position Last Week: Small Forward
The most productive position for the Heat last week was small forward. That should be no surprise because it's also been the most productive position for Miami this season. Last week, the Heat small forwards produced an estimated 0.9 wins and 0.8 of those came from LeBron James.
LeBron's backup, James Jones, had a productive week with an average of 0.153 EWP48, but most of that production came when he wasn't playing small forward. Jones only produced 0.049 EWP48 at small forward but 0.249 EWP48 when he played guard. Jones only had one above average game at small forward last week. It was against the Cleveland Cavaliers and he was the most productive player for Miami with 0.478 EWP48 as he shot 3-4 from three-point land.
The second-most productive player in that game? LeBron James with 0.242 EWP48. Oddly enough, LeBron had the opposite problem of James Jones last week. LeBron was most productive at small forward, with 0.266 EWP48, and actually had a negative impact on the Heat at guard, with -0.416 EWP48.
For the season, Jones is averaging 0.171 EWP48 at guard and 0.127 EWP48 at small forward. Jones usually plays guard when he's on the floor with LeBron and forward when he's on the floor with Wade. Since the primary driver behind Jones' productivity is his shooting efficiency, it seems that he shoots more efficiently when he plays with LeBron. That makes sense since LeBron is the better passer and leads the Heat in assists.
The two point guard stats that jump out are shooting efficiency and turnovers. Miami held opposing point guards to an adjusted shooting percentage of 31.5 percent while Heat point guards shot 56.5 percent and only averaged one turnover per 48 minutes.
The biggest game for a Heat point guard last week was Saturday night's wild game against the Wizards. Chalmers was the most productive player for the Heat in that game with 0.426 EWP48. Seventy-nine percent of Chalmers' production came in the second quarter, which was the team's best period in the game and kept them in striking distance by cutting the lead to one point at halftime. The Heat produced an estimated 0.618 wins produced against the Wizards and 53 percent of that production came in the second quarter led by Chalmers.
Point guard has been the third-most productive position for the Heat this season (after small forward and shooting guard) with an estimated 4.5 wins produced. But hey, let the world keep selling that story about weaknesses at point guard and Chalmers will keep crushing it.
Another interesting stat from that Wizards game is Chris Bosh's fourth quarter. Israel Gutierrez did a great job summarizing Bosh's performance on the Miami Herald blog.
Bosh produced -0.346 EWP48 through three quarters against the Wizards with eight points on seven shots, five rebounds and six turnovers in 26.2 minutes. In the fourth quarter, Bosh made up for all of that with 12 points on three shots, four rebounds and one turnover in nine-and-a-half minutes to produce 1.083 EWP48. Bosh's fourth quarter was the most productive quarter in the game for any player. He scored half the Heat's points, took half their free throws and grabbed 36 percent of the team's rebounds.
While Bosh owned the fourth quarter in Washington D.C., it was still his worst performance of the week. Surprisingly, the best power forward in the game was Juwan Howard with 0.593 EWP48 and an estimated 0.148 wins produced. Howard scored four points and grabbed six rebounds in 12 minutes to keep the Heat competitive until Bosh took over.
Howard's performance was surprising this week because he's been below average for the season with just 0.059 EWP48. He was the least productive player on the floor against the Hornets and Cavs earlier in the week (-0.283 EWP48), but put together back-to-back, above average performances against the Knicks and Wizards to end last week with an average of 0.101 EWP48.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Wizards. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @WIZARDS-121810).
Most Productive Position Last Week: Small Forward
The most productive position for the Heat last week was small forward. That should be no surprise because it's also been the most productive position for Miami this season. Last week, the Heat small forwards produced an estimated 0.9 wins and 0.8 of those came from LeBron James.
LeBron's backup, James Jones, had a productive week with an average of 0.153 EWP48, but most of that production came when he wasn't playing small forward. Jones only produced 0.049 EWP48 at small forward but 0.249 EWP48 when he played guard. Jones only had one above average game at small forward last week. It was against the Cleveland Cavaliers and he was the most productive player for Miami with 0.478 EWP48 as he shot 3-4 from three-point land.
The second-most productive player in that game? LeBron James with 0.242 EWP48. Oddly enough, LeBron had the opposite problem of James Jones last week. LeBron was most productive at small forward, with 0.266 EWP48, and actually had a negative impact on the Heat at guard, with -0.416 EWP48.
For the season, Jones is averaging 0.171 EWP48 at guard and 0.127 EWP48 at small forward. Jones usually plays guard when he's on the floor with LeBron and forward when he's on the floor with Wade. Since the primary driver behind Jones' productivity is his shooting efficiency, it seems that he shoots more efficiently when he plays with LeBron. That makes sense since LeBron is the better passer and leads the Heat in assists.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Cavaliers. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled CAVALIERS-121510).
You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.
Mavericks vs. Heat
The Heat have a 59.6 percent chance of beating the Mavericks in the regular season for the first time in six years. But with the odds below 60 percent, this is another "pothole game" that Miami fans prefer the team doesn't fall into again.
Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:
- Miami Heat (21-8)
- Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.158 (see the Heat Produced page)
- Average Possessions Per Game: 90.9 (see basketball-reference.com)
- Days Rest: One (last game was 95-94 win at Washington D.C. on 12/18/10)
- Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
- Dallas Mavericks (21-5)
- Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.139 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
- Average Possessions Per Game: 91.0
- Days Rest: Two (last game was 106-91 win vs. Phoenix on 12/17/10)
This game presents a few worrisome challenges:
- Numerology - The Heat are trying to win their 13th game in a row by ending a 13-game losing streak to the Mavericks.
- Wade's Shooting Touch - Wade shot 16-41 from the floor in his last two games (39 percent). In the ten games before that, he shot 99-168 (59 percent). Are the last two games the beginning of Wade's regression to the mean or a result of the left wrist getting banged up against Cleveland? Either way, it could be trouble if Agent D3 can't dominate another day.
- Coming Off a Bad Game With No Practice - Coach Erik Spoelstra said the Heat played "a horrible game" against the Wizards on Saturday night and he was right. It was the team's least productive game during the current winning streak, with just an estimated 0.618 wins produced, but the next practice isn't scheduled until after the Mavs game. Will the players be able to clean up the sloppy play they showed in D.C. without a practice?
- Glazing the Donut - Tyson Chandler had the most productive game against the Heat this season with 0.579 EWP48 and an estimated 0.437 wins produced when they played the Mavs in Dallas. The Heat's centers had a good run last week, but will they be able to continue their improved play against Chandler this week?
Okay, that's what should make Heat fans nervous. What should make them confident?
- Return of the King - LeBron played his worst game of the season against the Mavs in Dallas with -0.199 EWP48. If LeBron had just managed to hit James Jones' average production, then Miami would've won the last game.
- Dampier's Improved - The last game against Dallas was Erick Dampier's first game as a member of the Heat and he was terrible with -0.144 EWP48. He now averages 0.111 EWP48. The Heat could use that production in the middle against the Mavs' Chandler since they only got an estimated -0.127 wins produced from all Miami centers in Dallas.
- The Bucks - The Mavs were beaten at home by the Milwaukee Bucks last week. Seriously. The Heat should be able to beat any team the Bucks can beat.
- Big Game Hunters - The Heat have risen to the occasion in big games against the Cavs and Knicks and rematches with the Jazz and Hornets.
Whether the fans are nervous or confident, it should be a good game tonight.
Predicted score: Heat 95, Mavericks 91
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Heat Produced: Miami Heat 96, New Orleans Hornets 84
The Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from Monday's game against the New Orleans Hornets.
Dwyane Wade led the Miami Heat to their ninth consecutive victory with some get-back against the Hornets by producing an estimated 0.460 wins with 0.572 EWP48.
The second-most productive player for Miami was Zydrunas Ilgauskas with an estimated 0.167 wins produced and 0.388 EWP48. It was the third time in four games that Ilgauskas produced at a superstar level.
Juwan Howard was the least productive player for the Heat with an estimated -0.089 wins produced and -0.417 EWP48 as he only contributed a steal and two fouls in 10 minutes of playing time.
It was a much different story for the Hornets in Miami than in New Orleans last month. Chris Paul (0.136 EWP48) and Emeka Okafor (0.122 EWP48) were mere mortals in this matchup.
The most productive player for the Hornets was Trevor Ariza, who was more productive than LeBron James with 0.183 EWP48 and an estimated 0.144 wins produced. LeBron had a tough shooting night (despite hitting this incredible shot) and only managed to produce an estimated 0.005 wins with 0.007 EWP48.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Dwyane Wade led the Miami Heat to their ninth consecutive victory with some get-back against the Hornets by producing an estimated 0.460 wins with 0.572 EWP48.
The second-most productive player for Miami was Zydrunas Ilgauskas with an estimated 0.167 wins produced and 0.388 EWP48. It was the third time in four games that Ilgauskas produced at a superstar level.
Juwan Howard was the least productive player for the Heat with an estimated -0.089 wins produced and -0.417 EWP48 as he only contributed a steal and two fouls in 10 minutes of playing time.
It was a much different story for the Hornets in Miami than in New Orleans last month. Chris Paul (0.136 EWP48) and Emeka Okafor (0.122 EWP48) were mere mortals in this matchup.
The most productive player for the Hornets was Trevor Ariza, who was more productive than LeBron James with 0.183 EWP48 and an estimated 0.144 wins produced. LeBron had a tough shooting night (despite hitting this incredible shot) and only managed to produce an estimated 0.005 wins with 0.007 EWP48.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Hornets. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled HORNETS-121310).
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Miami Heat Check: Dwyane Wade Leads The Way To Great Eight
A little California Love has the Heat on an eight-game winning streak.
The Miami Heat have an eight-game winning streak after Dwyane Wade led them to a sweep through two games in California this weekend. Let's review the weekend Truehoop style with links to other recaps of the games from Heat beat writers and bloggers with a little statistical analysis sprinkled in the mix.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Heat 106, Warriors 84
From the South Florida Sun-Sentinel:
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade likely could have come out ahead in this one playing two-on-five. Wade finished with 34 points. James, who sat out the fourth quarter, scored 25.
Wade and LeBron combined to produce an estimated 0.472 wins. That's not enough to win a game, but it's more than the estimated -0.181 wins the Golden State Warriors managed to produce as a team.
Carlos Arroyo went all Bucks on the Warriors. When he’s on, he’s on. He made all four of his shots.
Arroyo was the second-most productive Heat player in the game with an estimated 0.225 wins produced and 0.576 EWP48. He was the most productive player against the Bucks with an estimated 0.414 wins produced and 0.615 EWP48.
The shorthanded Warriors played former Heat forward Dorell Wright and guard Monta Ellis all 24 first-half minutes.
Wright entered with four 20-point games for the Warriors, after recording just three such performances in his first six NBA seasons in Miami. He had four first-half 3-pointers.
Wright had a good first half against his former team with 0.210 EWP48. Unfortunately for Golden State, he was shutdown in the second half and only produced -0.586 EWP48.
From Hot Hot Hoops:
Dwyane Wade looked as if he was going to have a rough night after getting elbowed inadvertently by Andris Biedrins 52 seconds into the game and needed several minutes to shake it off. Without missing a beat, Wade continued to build synergy with LeBron James with each of them also dominant while the other rested.
Wade was the most productive player for Miami with an estimated 0.276 wins produced and 0.384 EWP48. He got off to a slow start when he returned to the game (for him, anyway) with just 0.151 EWP48 in the first half, but he turned it up in the second half. Wade produced 0.611 EWP48 in the second half.
From HEAT.com:
...[T]he Golden State Warriors’ 13 turnovers – many of which came from tipped passes – allowed LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to streak down the wings and act as catalysts for a 13-0 run early in the third quarter that, effectively, decided Miami’s 106-84 win then and there.The third quarter against the Warriors was the Heat's most productive quarter of the season with an estimated 0.661 wins produced. The previous high for estimated wins produced in a period was the first quarter against the Pistons on December 1st.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Warriors. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @WARRIORS-121010).
Heat 104, Kings 83
Dwyane Wade pulled the Heat back into the game in the second quarter and LeBron James again helped finish it off at the end of the third. These third quarters are getting frightening.
Wade played like an immortal amongst children of a lesser god in the second quarter. He produced 1.128 EWP48(!) in 10 minutes of playing time for an estimated 0.235 wins produced. Thanks to Wade, the Heat outplayed the Kings in the second quarter by an estimated 0.808 wins as they posted their fourth-best quarter of the season with an estimated 0.588 wins produced. Wade finished the game as the most productive player on the Heat with an estimated 0.504 wins produced.
After his big game against the Kings, Wade moved back into the top spot on the Heat Produced page. He now leads Miami with an estimated 4.6 wins produced and 0.262 EWP48. LeBron James is second with an estimated 4.4 wins produced and 0.230 EWP48.
[D]on’t sell Chris Bosh short in this one. He powered the Heat’s dominance on the boards, closing with 14 points and 17 rebounds.
Bosh was the second-most productive player for the Heat with an estimated 0.334 wins produced and 0.445 EWP48. It was Bosh's second-best performance this season. His best performance was the 35-point explosion against the Phoenix Suns on November 17th with an estimated 0.455 wins produced and 0.723 EWP48.
It was another of those nights where Mario Chalmers seemingly gave back all he provided.
I think the Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman is off on this point. Chalmers' production was below average at Golden State with just 0.046 EWP48, but he was average against the Kings with 0.101 EWP48.
The problem I think Winderman is touching on is that Chalmers provided all of that production in the Heat's big second quarter. In the second quarter, Chalmers produced 0.665 EWP48 but in the other three quarters he was terrible with -0.215 EWP48. Coincidentally, he did the same thing against the Warriors. Chalmers produced an amazing 0.812 EWP48 in the second quarter, but was terrible in the other three quarters with -0.444 EWP48.
I don't know what's going on with Chalmers' up and down production, but it's worth following to see if it continues or Spoelstra adjusts his rotation.
From Hot Hot Hoops:
...[M]uch like a fight scene in the movies where the overmatched little guy gets one shot in before getting pummeled, the Heat blew the gates open in the second half en route to the easy victory.
It took the Sacramento Kings half of the third quarter to score their third and fourth point but by then the game had quickly gotten out of hand.
The Heat outscored the Kings 87-59 for the last three quarters of the game.
The Kings were terrible in the last three quarters with an estimated -0.559 wins produced. This game was the Heat's second-best performance of the season with an estimated 1.425 wins produced. The game against the Timberwolves on November 2nd was still the high point with an estimated 1.509 wins produced.
The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Kings. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @KINGS-121110).
You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Miami Heat Check: The Bench Is Second To None
I got a great question and comment from Giovanni Valladares at Bleacher Report:
"How many wins does Miami's bench produce? With and without Haslem and Miller? And how do they rank compared to other NBA benches?
The Magic have the most productive bench in the NBA with an average WP48 of 0.097 and the Lakers are third with an average production of 0.087 WP48 coming from their bench.
Without Miller and Haslem, the Heat bench is averaging an estimated 0.079 WP48, which would be fifth-best in the league. With Miller and Haslem coming off the bench, the Heat would have the best bench in the NBA by a good margin (+0.032 WP48). If the Heat and Magic both give 40 percent of the available minutes to their benches, the Heat's advantage with Miller and Haslem coming off the bench would translate to an extra 5 wins. Not a bad advantage to have over a division rival.
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported that Miller is looking to return December 25th but the Heat don't expect him to be healthy until January. As impressive as the Heat have looked during this seven-game winning streak, it can get even better with the return of Miller (and Haslem?).
Don't you love the holidays?
"How many wins does Miami's bench produce? With and without Haslem and Miller? And how do they rank compared to other NBA benches?
I just hate that Miami's bench gets no credit and is often underrated. They haven't been too good as of late but with U.D. and Miller I gotta believe they would be one of the top benches."
Three great questions. It took longer than I expected to pull together the stats, but I finally pulled them together from the Heat Produced page, Nerd Numbers and basketball-reference.com to get the answers for Giovanni.
NOTE: The numbers used in this article do not include stats from last night's game against the Golden State Warriors.
How Many Wins Does Miami's Bench Produce?
The Heat bench has produced an estimated 3.8 wins this season with an estimated 0.087 WP48. The Heat have produced an estimated 17.1 wins this season, so the bench has been responsible for 22 percent of the team's production while playing 38 percent of the minutes.
The most productive players coming off the bench for Miami have been James Jones (0.133 Est. WP48), Udonis Haslem (0.124 Est. WP48), Mario Chalmers (0.123 Est. WP48) and Jamaal Magloire (0.193 Est. WP48). Those four players have produced an estimated 3.1 wins in 1,153.4 minutes off the bench and are the only reserves whose productivity has been above average this season.
The rest of the reserves - Eddie House (0.085 Est. WP48), Juwan Howard (0.065 Est. WP48), Erick Dampier (0.074 Est. WP48), Jerry Stackhouse (0.011 Est. WP48) and Joel Anthony (-0.041 Est. WP48) - have only combined to produce an estimated 0.7 wins and most of that production came from House.
How Is the Bench With and Without Haslem or Miller?
I broke this question down into five separate questions:
Here are the answers:
How Do The Heat Rank Compared To Other NBA Benches?
HATER ALERT: This is where the article gets scary.
Despite injuries to Haslem and Miller, the Heat have the second-most productive bench this season with 0.090 WP48 (see the spreadsheet below, based on original data available from the Wins Produced Viewer and basketball-reference.com).
Three great questions. It took longer than I expected to pull together the stats, but I finally pulled them together from the Heat Produced page, Nerd Numbers and basketball-reference.com to get the answers for Giovanni.
NOTE: The numbers used in this article do not include stats from last night's game against the Golden State Warriors.
This article will use Win Score and Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
How Many Wins Does Miami's Bench Produce?
The Heat bench has produced an estimated 3.8 wins this season with an estimated 0.087 WP48. The Heat have produced an estimated 17.1 wins this season, so the bench has been responsible for 22 percent of the team's production while playing 38 percent of the minutes.
The most productive players coming off the bench for Miami have been James Jones (0.133 Est. WP48), Udonis Haslem (0.124 Est. WP48), Mario Chalmers (0.123 Est. WP48) and Jamaal Magloire (0.193 Est. WP48). Those four players have produced an estimated 3.1 wins in 1,153.4 minutes off the bench and are the only reserves whose productivity has been above average this season.
The rest of the reserves - Eddie House (0.085 Est. WP48), Juwan Howard (0.065 Est. WP48), Erick Dampier (0.074 Est. WP48), Jerry Stackhouse (0.011 Est. WP48) and Joel Anthony (-0.041 Est. WP48) - have only combined to produce an estimated 0.7 wins and most of that production came from House.
How Is the Bench With and Without Haslem or Miller?
I broke this question down into five separate questions:
- How many wins does the bench produce with Haslem?
- How many wins does the bench produce without Haslem?
- How many wins would the bench produce if Miller played in the first 23 games (Haslem still gets hurt)?
- How many wins does the bench produce with Miller, but no Haslem?
- How many wins does the bench produce with Miller and Haslem?
Here are the answers:
- With Haslem in the rotation, the bench produced an estimated 0.095 WP48. If he stayed healthy, then the bench would have produced an estimated 4.2 wins this season. The extra 0.4 wins produced would give the Heat an estimated 17.5 wins produced for the season, so maybe Haslem's health cost Miami an extra win so far.
- Without Haslem in the rotation, the bench has produced an estimated 0.079 WP48 this season. The problem is that Haslem's minutes in the rotation have been given to Juwan Howard and Erick Dampier who have been much less productive. I projected Dampier to be an above average player this season (0.130 WP48) based on his age and productivity last season, but I also said I didn't think he would hit that projection after he signed with the Heat.
In his first seven games with Miami, Dampier has been below average in shooting efficiency, getting to the line, scoring and rebounding. Yes, the big man all the critics were clamoring for the Heat to sign has been a below average rebounder for the Heat. He's averaging 10.9 rebounds per 48 minutes while the typical center in a Heat game is averaging 12.2 rebounds per 48 minutes. If Dampier improves to his projected level of productivity, then the productivity off the bench will get closer to its UD-levels.
As for Juwan Howard, he's been bad at everything except shooting and passing the basketball (which may be good for the Heat offense, but not much else). Unlike Dampier, I have no hope that he will improve.
- I had a difficult time figuring out how Coach Erik Spoelstra would give Miller minutes in his rotation if he was available all season, so I took the lazy approach and just replaced James Jones with Mike Miller's projected productivity. In that scenario, the bench's productivity increases from an estimated 0.087 WP48 and 3.8 wins produced to an estimated 0.112 WP48 and 5 wins produced. If Miller was coming off the bench, and producing as expected, then the Heat could be just 1.5 games behind the Celtics in the Eastern Conference instead of three.
- The previous answer includes 13 games of production from UD but when Miller comes back this season, Haslem will still be recovering from the torn ligament in his foot. With Miller coming off the bench without Haslem, the Heat's productivity off the bench would be an estimated 0.087 WP48 if Miller takes Jones' spot in the rotation. If Spoelstra takes minutes from Jones or Chalmers, then the Heat won't get anymore productivity than they've already gotten to this point off the bench, but if Spoelstra decides to go small and takes minutes from Howard or Dampier then the bench could be more productive than it is now. It will be interesting to see what he does when Miller returns.
- In the dream scenario, with both Miller and UD coming off the bench, the reserves' productivity jumps from an estimated 0.087 WP48 to an estimated 0.129 WP48. If the Heat had both players healthy all season, then the Heat could have two extra wins right now and be breathing down Boston's neck for the number one seed.
HATER ALERT: This is where the article gets scary.
Despite injuries to Haslem and Miller, the Heat have the second-most productive bench this season with 0.090 WP48 (see the spreadsheet below, based on original data available from the Wins Produced Viewer and basketball-reference.com).
The Magic have the most productive bench in the NBA with an average WP48 of 0.097 and the Lakers are third with an average production of 0.087 WP48 coming from their bench.
Without Miller and Haslem, the Heat bench is averaging an estimated 0.079 WP48, which would be fifth-best in the league. With Miller and Haslem coming off the bench, the Heat would have the best bench in the NBA by a good margin (+0.032 WP48). If the Heat and Magic both give 40 percent of the available minutes to their benches, the Heat's advantage with Miller and Haslem coming off the bench would translate to an extra 5 wins. Not a bad advantage to have over a division rival.
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported that Miller is looking to return December 25th but the Heat don't expect him to be healthy until January. As impressive as the Heat have looked during this seven-game winning streak, it can get even better with the return of Miller (and Haslem?).
Don't you love the holidays?
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Heat 111, Jazz 98: Revenge Is A Dish Best Served Heated
Before the game, I only gave the Heat a 42.4 percent chance of avenging their loss to the Jazz in the Musical Miracle by Biscayne Bay on November 9th, but Miami was able to overcome those odds and get their revenge with a 111-98 defeat of Utah in Salt Lake City.
How did they do it? Let's go through the stats.
Seriously, the Jazz fans had the loudest boos for LeBron James that I've heard outside of Cleveland. Why? Actually, it doesn't matter. Kiss the list Jazz fans.
Millsap didn't dominate the Heat like he did in Miami primarily because he was terrible in the second and fourth quarters (-0.288 EWP48). But he was very productive in the first quarter when I sent this tweet with eight points and two rebounds on 4-6 shooting from the floor.
Millsap produced 0.445 EWP48 in the first quarter and his hustle at the end of the quarter pulled the Jazz within one-point of the Heat, 28-27. In Miami, Millsap was the most productive Jazz player with 0.343 EWP48. Last night, his production dropped to 0.206 EWP48 and he was only the second-most productive Jazz player.
The Three Kings played 119.3 minutes for an average of 39.8 minutes each. LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined to produce an estimated 0.695 wins produced, which was 80.6 percent of the Heat's estimated wins produced total. That should be enough to win as long as the supporting cast doesn't tank the game with negative production.
Last night, the supporting cast didn't bring a lot to the table (like they did last week against the Pistons) but it was positive. They were below average with 0.066 EWP48 but Zydrunas Ilgauskas gave his second-best performance of the season with 0.447 EWP48 and an estimated 0.243 wins produced.
It was Big Z's first time scoring and being productive since the win over the Pistons on December 1st. His performance against the Jazz was surprising since he was terrible in the last game with -0.184 EWP48.
Big Z has now played five games above 0.400 EWP48 (a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48) this season and the Heat are 4-1 in those games.
Mario Chalmers was terrible in the second quarter with -0.162 EWP48. His production consisted of a missed three-pointer, one rebound, one assist and three fouls in 9.5 minutes. Not a good run.
Chalmers was also terrible in Monday night's game against Milwaukee with -0.293 EWP48. The road trip hasn't gotten off to a good start for Chalmers. Before the road trip, Chalmers had played above average in five consecutive games.
Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always say the difference between star players and role players is that role players struggle on the road. It will be interesting to see if Chalmers will be able to get his game back on track in the last two games of this road trip.
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel ran a story yesterday about House losing his spot in Coach Spoelstra's rotation to Chalmers and he reportedly doesn't know why. Spoelstra appears to have made the decision after the Heat's 16th game of the season against Philadelphia on November 26th to give Chalmers more playing time.
House played 341.3 minutes in the first 16 games this season compared to just 72.7 minutes played for Chalmers. In the first 16 games, House produced .076 EWP48 compared to Chalmers' production of 0.013 EWP48.
House has only made four appearances in the last seven games and played just 33.4 minutes after appearing in each of the first 16 games. In the last seven games, House has produced 0.187 EWP48 while Chalmers has played 154.9 minutes in the last seven games and produced 0.174 EWP48.
I can understand House's confusion based on those numbers, but Chalmers has been more productive than House for the season. Mario's produced 0.123 EWP48 for the season compared to Eddie's 0.085 EWP48.
The problem House could be having, though, is that he's been just as productive a point guard as Chalmers but has played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard, where his production has been below average. The figure below illustrates how Chalmers and House's production compare this season.
Deron Williams was a load for the Heat too handle. He used his speed and handle to get by LeBron and bully past the rest of the Heat defenders on his way to producing 0.331 EWP48. He was the most productive player on the floor for Utah, and his production was consistent with his last game against the Heat when he produced 0.318 EWP48.
If Williams could have knocked down his three-pointers last night, then it could have been a different game, but since he was 0-5 he didn't even attempt one in the fourth quarter when the Jazz could have used them to get back in the game.
This dunk by Wade was a rare highlight in a third quarter filled with lowlights as the Jazz outplayed the Heat coming out of the locker room. As a team, the Jazz played like stars with an average of 0.263 EWP48 while the Heat played like bums with an average of -0.006 EWP48.
Wade only produced just -0.095 EWP48 in the third quarter which has usually been his most productive quarter. Wade averages 0.292 EWP48 in third quarters this season and went OFF against the Jazz in Miami during the third quarter with 0.762 EWP48.
Wade only has two weaknesses in his production this season - free throw shooting and turnovers. He's averaging 4.7 turnovers per 48 minutes, which is consistent with his career average but higher than his average over the last two seasons when he only had 4.2 and 4.4 turnovers per 48 minutes.
LeBron scored his 27th point with 3:55 left in the third quarter for an average of 47 points per 48 minutes. With the rest of the team playing so bad in the third quarter, I thought he was going to have to carry the Heat in the fourth quarter, too.
Well, LeBron only took one more shot in the third quarter (which he missed) and the rest of the team stepped up in the fourth quarter (except for Erick Dampier). LeBron only played eight minutes in the fourth quarter. If he kept scoring at the rate he was scoring when I sent that tweet, then he would have scored 39 points.
As much as that tweet was about offense, it was also about defense. LeBron's defense against Andrei Kirilenko was terrible in the third quarter as he kept trying to cheat off him and AK-47 took advantage by scoring seven points on just four shots.
AK-47 only had one good quarter in the game and it was that third quarter with 0.102 EWP48. His production was below zero in every other period and the only thing he did in that third quarter was score, courtesy of LeBron's inattentive defense. His only other stat in that period was a personal foul, so all of his production came from the points he scored.
Am I nitpicking LeBron? Yes. Yes, I am.
The truth is that he shut AK-47 down for three quarters. Kirilenko finished the game with -0.133 EWP48, which was very different from the 0.313 EWP48 he produced in the miracle game the Jazz won in Miami.
This was an idiotic tweet. Arroyo was the worst Heat player on the floor last night with -0.350 EWP48.
This tweet was sent after Wade and LeBron both bricked pull up three-pointers and Millsap was headed to the line for two free throws to cut a lead that was just 11 points 75 seconds ago to five points.
He bricked both free throws. Karma never tasted so sweet.
These two tweets also turned out to be idiotic. The problem for Chalmers was that he had two turnovers in 59 seconds with less than five minutes to go in the game. The problem with the tweets was that they were the only two turnovers he had in 25.4 minutes played.
Chalmers had a huge fourth quarter for the Heat with 0.411 EWP48. He scored eight points on just six shots, with one rebound, one assist, two steals, two turnovers and one foul.
Chalmers played the entire fourth quarter and, with Arroyo literally playing his worst game of the season, it was the right move for Spoelstra to make. Coincidentally, Arroyo's second-worst game of the season (-0.317 EWP48) came in New Orleans against Chris Paul, so he hasn't been good against the consensus top two point guards in the league.
Chalmers ended the game by serving up a three-pointer in the last eight seconds that cleansed the taste of the Jazz from the Heat's palate for good this season.
The only good thing about the Jazz was that they were ahead of the Lakers in the Western Conference standings, but with their loss to the Heat and the Lakers' win over the Clippers, the Jazz now trail them by half a game. Speaking of the Lakers, I watched their game against the Clippers and had one thought that I'd like to share...
See you December 25th, Laker fans!
How did they do it? Let's go through the stats.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Game Recap
A brief announcement: This recap will be narrated by my twitter account, not because I have great insight when I watch the game but because what I get from watching the game is usually different than what I get from the box score.
Now let's get started with a little help from Slick Rick.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:02p
Paul Millsap has the signature of an illiterate man #NBA
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12688601196269569
NBA League Pass aired the Utah Jazz broadcast. It began with a Paul Millsap highlight package and a graphic of his signature that looked like he didn't take too many classes at Louisiana Tech. Don't take my word for it, check it out for yourself.
 |
| Paul Millsap does not write like a learned man |
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:11p
Jazz fans, I saw your thoughts on LBJ that aired during pre-game. U can all kiss the #HeatShitList
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12690813855211520
Seriously, the Jazz fans had the loudest boos for LeBron James that I've heard outside of Cleveland. Why? Actually, it doesn't matter. Kiss the list Jazz fans.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:36p
FuckingMillsap still outworking the Heat. He's the #NBA version of the lil' engine that could. Hustle @mchalmers15!
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12696981629566976
Millsap didn't dominate the Heat like he did in Miami primarily because he was terrible in the second and fourth quarters (-0.288 EWP48). But he was very productive in the first quarter when I sent this tweet with eight points and two rebounds on 4-6 shooting from the floor.
Millsap produced 0.445 EWP48 in the first quarter and his hustle at the end of the quarter pulled the Jazz within one-point of the Heat, 28-27. In Miami, Millsap was the most productive Jazz player with 0.343 EWP48. Last night, his production dropped to 0.206 EWP48 and he was only the second-most productive Jazz player.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:40p
This might be one of those #NBA games Spo has 2 play the 3 Kings 40 mins ea.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12697956985610241
The Three Kings played 119.3 minutes for an average of 39.8 minutes each. LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combined to produce an estimated 0.695 wins produced, which was 80.6 percent of the Heat's estimated wins produced total. That should be enough to win as long as the supporting cast doesn't tank the game with negative production.
Last night, the supporting cast didn't bring a lot to the table (like they did last week against the Pistons) but it was positive. They were below average with 0.066 EWP48 but Zydrunas Ilgauskas gave his second-best performance of the season with 0.447 EWP48 and an estimated 0.243 wins produced.
It was Big Z's first time scoring and being productive since the win over the Pistons on December 1st. His performance against the Jazz was surprising since he was terrible in the last game with -0.184 EWP48.
Big Z has now played five games above 0.400 EWP48 (a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48) this season and the Heat are 4-1 in those games.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:41p
Time 4 @mchalmers15 2 come outta the game. He'sfuckingmessing up like he did in MIL.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12698196316786688
Mario Chalmers was terrible in the second quarter with -0.162 EWP48. His production consisted of a missed three-pointer, one rebound, one assist and three fouls in 9.5 minutes. Not a good run.
Chalmers was also terrible in Monday night's game against Milwaukee with -0.293 EWP48. The road trip hasn't gotten off to a good start for Chalmers. Before the road trip, Chalmers had played above average in five consecutive games.
Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith always say the difference between star players and role players is that role players struggle on the road. It will be interesting to see if Chalmers will be able to get his game back on track in the last two games of this road trip.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 9:42p
Bring back Eddie House RT @reservoirgod: Time 4 @mchalmers15 2 come outta the game. He's fucking up like he did in MIL.
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12698514177925121
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel ran a story yesterday about House losing his spot in Coach Spoelstra's rotation to Chalmers and he reportedly doesn't know why. Spoelstra appears to have made the decision after the Heat's 16th game of the season against Philadelphia on November 26th to give Chalmers more playing time.
House played 341.3 minutes in the first 16 games this season compared to just 72.7 minutes played for Chalmers. In the first 16 games, House produced .076 EWP48 compared to Chalmers' production of 0.013 EWP48.
House has only made four appearances in the last seven games and played just 33.4 minutes after appearing in each of the first 16 games. In the last seven games, House has produced 0.187 EWP48 while Chalmers has played 154.9 minutes in the last seven games and produced 0.174 EWP48.
I can understand House's confusion based on those numbers, but Chalmers has been more productive than House for the season. Mario's produced 0.123 EWP48 for the season compared to Eddie's 0.085 EWP48.
The problem House could be having, though, is that he's been just as productive a point guard as Chalmers but has played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard, where his production has been below average. The figure below illustrates how Chalmers and House's production compare this season.
I think the figure provides some insight into Spoelstra's decision to switch to Chalmers. The only thing House does well as a point guard is shoot the ball. If Spoelstra wants more well-rounded production from the backup point guard position, then Chalmers is the clear choice because he provides above average production in terms of steals, ball-handling, shot-blocking and passing even though he's shooting terribly.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:04p
Deron Williams is a straight up thug on offense, man. He's constantly shoving ppl w/ and w/out the ball.Goddamn#NBA refs don't callshitanything
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12704192061775872
Deron Williams was a load for the Heat too handle. He used his speed and handle to get by LeBron and bully past the rest of the Heat defenders on his way to producing 0.331 EWP48. He was the most productive player on the floor for Utah, and his production was consistent with his last game against the Heat when he produced 0.318 EWP48.
If Williams could have knocked down his three-pointers last night, then it could have been a different game, but since he was 0-5 he didn't even attempt one in the fourth quarter when the Jazz could have used them to get back in the game.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:29p
D-Wade 2 AK47: "DEEZ NUTS!" #NBA action is fantastic
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12710282849681408
This dunk by Wade was a rare highlight in a third quarter filled with lowlights as the Jazz outplayed the Heat coming out of the locker room. As a team, the Jazz played like stars with an average of 0.263 EWP48 while the Heat played like bums with an average of -0.006 EWP48.
Wade only produced just -0.095 EWP48 in the third quarter which has usually been his most productive quarter. Wade averages 0.292 EWP48 in third quarters this season and went OFF against the Jazz in Miami during the third quarter with 0.762 EWP48.
Wade wasn't the only Miami player with negative production in the third quarter. Every players' productivity was below zero in the third quarter except for LeBron and Big Z. Big Z played his best quarter of the game when the Heat needed it most by producing 0.919 EWP48 and LeBron played his second-best quarter of the game by producing 0.646 EWP48.
With the team going so bad, Spoelstra played LeBron the entire quarter and as a result he didn't have much left for the fourth quarter. In the final period, LeBron was below average with 0.075 EWP48 but he did have a great dunk off a Wade alley-oop.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:33p
I'm so sick of Wade and thesefuckingTOs...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12711501194334208
Wade only has two weaknesses in his production this season - free throw shooting and turnovers. He's averaging 4.7 turnovers per 48 minutes, which is consistent with his career average but higher than his average over the last two seasons when he only had 4.2 and 4.4 turnovers per 48 minutes.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:45p
LBJ might give Jazz 40 2nite but he's gotta stop losing track of AK47 on D...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12714390562283520
LeBron scored his 27th point with 3:55 left in the third quarter for an average of 47 points per 48 minutes. With the rest of the team playing so bad in the third quarter, I thought he was going to have to carry the Heat in the fourth quarter, too.
Well, LeBron only took one more shot in the third quarter (which he missed) and the rest of the team stepped up in the fourth quarter (except for Erick Dampier). LeBron only played eight minutes in the fourth quarter. If he kept scoring at the rate he was scoring when I sent that tweet, then he would have scored 39 points.
As much as that tweet was about offense, it was also about defense. LeBron's defense against Andrei Kirilenko was terrible in the third quarter as he kept trying to cheat off him and AK-47 took advantage by scoring seven points on just four shots.
AK-47 only had one good quarter in the game and it was that third quarter with 0.102 EWP48. His production was below zero in every other period and the only thing he did in that third quarter was score, courtesy of LeBron's inattentive defense. His only other stat in that period was a personal foul, so all of his production came from the points he scored.
Am I nitpicking LeBron? Yes. Yes, I am.
The truth is that he shut AK-47 down for three quarters. Kirilenko finished the game with -0.133 EWP48, which was very different from the 0.313 EWP48 he produced in the miracle game the Jazz won in Miami.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 10:46p
Too much LBJ ballhandling in this 3rd qtr for MIA. Let Arroyo run damu'fuckingpoint...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12714776786378752
This was an idiotic tweet. Arroyo was the worst Heat player on the floor last night with -0.350 EWP48.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:06p
Here MIA goes w/ this heroshitgarbage again and the lead starts 2 evaporate...
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12719761792176128
This tweet was sent after Wade and LeBron both bricked pull up three-pointers and Millsap was headed to the line for two free throws to cut a lead that was just 11 points 75 seconds ago to five points.
He bricked both free throws. Karma never tasted so sweet.
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:12p
WHYDA FUCKIS CHALMERS STILL IN DA GAME?
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12721195363344385
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:13p
I JUST ASKED THAT QUESTION! RT @IraHeatBeat: Why is Mario Chalmers still out there?
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12721462087524352
These two tweets also turned out to be idiotic. The problem for Chalmers was that he had two turnovers in 59 seconds with less than five minutes to go in the game. The problem with the tweets was that they were the only two turnovers he had in 25.4 minutes played.
Chalmers had a huge fourth quarter for the Heat with 0.411 EWP48. He scored eight points on just six shots, with one rebound, one assist, two steals, two turnovers and one foul.
Chalmers played the entire fourth quarter and, with Arroyo literally playing his worst game of the season, it was the right move for Spoelstra to make. Coincidentally, Arroyo's second-worst game of the season (-0.317 EWP48) came in New Orleans against Chris Paul, so he hasn't been good against the consensus top two point guards in the league.
Chalmers ended the game by serving up a three-pointer in the last eight seconds that cleansed the taste of the Jazz from the Heat's palate for good this season.
The only good thing about the Jazz was that they were ahead of the Lakers in the Western Conference standings, but with their loss to the Heat and the Lakers' win over the Clippers, the Jazz now trail them by half a game. Speaking of the Lakers, I watched their game against the Clippers and had one thought that I'd like to share...
From: @reservoirgod
Sent: Dec 8, 2010 11:29p
Pau Gasol plays like he wears Uggs #NBA
sent via ÜberTwitter
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/reservoirgod/status/12725427281862656
See you December 25th, Laker fans!
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.
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