Heat Produced: Miami Is Udonis Haslem's Team Halfway Through The Pre-Season

After Tuesday night's game against CSKA Moscow, the Heat were halfway through their pre-season schedule.  Let's see what the Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced stats have to say about the players' performance so far.  The spreadsheets below summarize each player's overall productivity as well as their productivity in each pre-season game.





Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced are statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal to measure how much a player's boxscore statistics contributes to their team's wins.  An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48). More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics




Most Heat Produced: Udonis Haslem
When Dwyane Wade limped off the court with a hamstring injury just three minutes into the pre-season, most reporters wrote that the Heat were now LeBron James' team.  The truth of the matter, however, is that Udonis Haslem has been the most productive player for Miami in the pre-season with an estimated 0.8 wins produced in just 79.8 minutes over three games.  He was the most productive player against Detroit and Oklahoma City and has been almost three times more productive this pre-season (with a 0.476 EWP48) than he was all of last season (with a 0.160 WP48).




Alternative Energy Sources: LeBron James and Chris Bosh
As expected, two of the Heat's top three producers are LeBron James and Chris Bosh.  Each has had one bad game in the pre-season but have both played like superstars otherwise.  LeBron's bad game was his first one for the Heat when he got up as many shots as he could but sunk his productivity into the negative range.  I don't know if LeBron has been trying to make up for the loss of Wade in the pre-season or just trying to put on a show for the fans but after four games he's averaging about three more shot attempts per 48 minutes than he did in Cleveland last season and has not been as efficient.  So far his shooting efficiency has declined from 54.5% last season to 48% this pre-season.  Outside of the shooting efficiency, his production is pretty close to what he provided last year and if you throw out the first pre-season game, his EWP48 jumps to 0.395 (which is much closer to the expected 0.400+ production from the NBA's reigning MVP).  Hopefully, the cramps in his legs from last night's game won't prevent LeBron from getting all the way back into MVP form before the season-opener in Boston.


Unlike LeBron, Bosh has been much better than expected if you throw out his one bad game on the second night of a back-to-back against the Spurs (Haslem being the most productive power forward on the team was also unexpected but  I think they should play Bosh at center anyway).  If you throw out the game in San Antonio, Bosh's EWP48 jumps 100 points to 0.358.  Bosh's shot attempts have slightly increased from last season but he's only gotten to the free throw line half as much in the pre-season as he did last year.  His increased shooting efficiency has helped him keep his scoring average within two points of last year's number per 48 minutes.  His rebounding numbers are way down but he's increased his steals and decreased his turnovers to keep the net possessions he provides close to last season's number.  Lastly, there haven't been too many shots sent flying out of the "Bosh Pit" but with Joel Anthony blocking six shots per 48 minutes, I don't think the Heat need another shot-blocker right now. Of course, when Anthony's not in the game, Bosh will have to be more of a presence in the paint.




Burnouts: Kenny Hasbrouck and Shavlik Randolph
Five Heat players have provided sub-zero productivity in the pre-season - Kenny Hasbrouck, Shavlik Randolph, Anthony Mason Jr, Mickell Gladness and Jamaal Magloire.  Mason and Gladness were already cut and Magloire has only played 7.6 minutes.  Since Magloire's a veteran, I think it's safe to say he'll return back to the positive production he provided last year.  That leaves Hasbrouck and Randolph fighting Da'Sean Butler for the 15th spot on the roster.  If they can't find a way to be more productive than a guy who isn't even playing, then they deserve to be cut well before the October 25th deadline to ensure they don't even take up a D-League roster spot.  They've both been above average at getting their shot off but not much else. Hasbrouck has been below average in every other category except assists.  Randolph has been below average in every other category except for rebounds and blocked shots.  At least they'll get to take home some nice parting gifts - a combined $1.75 million.




Ambient Heat: Is Patrick Beverley Productive Or Just Healthy And Hungry?
Beverley has definitely taken advantage of the fact that he's the only fully healthy PG on the Heat roster.  Chalmers is playing, but still recovering from the high ankle sprain he sustained this summer; Arroyo suffered a bad thigh bruise in the FIBA World Championships; and Eddie House is still recovering from off-season shoulder surgery.  Those injuries have allowed Beverley to log a team-high 81.9 minutes at point guard and produce an amazing 0.198 EWP48 and 0.3 estimated wins (good for 5th on the team).  I say it's amazing because he was the least productive guard for Miami in the Vegas Summer League this year with a -0.067 EWP48.  Beverley's poor production in the summer league makes me skeptical of his pre-season numbers.  While he's been productive, I think his numbers could be representative of a "looter in a riot" as Kenny Smith would say.  Despite being very productive, his plus-minus for the pre-season is -25.  That leads me to believe he could just be racking up numbers in garbage time like the double-double he posted in a 17-point loss to the Spurs.  I like the fact that he's healthy, appears to be hungry and is much more productive against what is likely the same level of competition he faced in summer league, but I'm not sure if he's more deserving of a spot on the roster than Dexter Pittman.  Pittman, however, isn't exactly making a strong case for playing in South Beach instead of Sioux Falls.


Like Beverley, Pittman was the worst player at his position for the Heat in the Vegas Summer League.  Unlike Beverley, Pittman has only  produced 0.007 EWP48 after three pre-season games.  Beverley has improved his free throw shooting, scoring, rebounding and passing while reducing his turnovers and personal fouls.  His shooting efficiency has gotten worse (I didn't really think it was possible for a guard to shoot worse than 34.8%) but his improvement has been somewhat remarkable.  Pittman improved his shooting efficiency (which subsequently improved his scoring) but he's continued to struggle with the other facets of his game. His rebounds and blocked shots have declined while his turnovers and fouls have increased. With three centers on the roster in addition to Bosh, Haslem and Howard, it might be best to send Pittman to the D-League this season and let him continue to shed pounds while developing his game.




15-Man Roster Prediction Halfway Through the Pre-Season
Based on the Heat Produced halfway through the pre-season, the opening night roster should be as follows:

POSITION - PLAYER (PRE-SEASON EWP/EWP48)
PG - C. Arroyo, P. Beverley, M. Chalmers
SG - D. Wade, M. Miller, E. House
SF - L. James, J. Jones
PF - U. Haslem, J. Howard
C - C. Bosh, Z. Ilgauskas, J. Anthony, J. Magloire, D. Pittman

Of course, I realize that's probably not what it's going to look like. It will probably look more like this:

POSITION - PLAYER (PRE-SEASON EWP/EWP48)
PG - C. Arroyo, M. Chalmers, P. Beverley
SG - D. Wade, M. Miller, E. House
SF - L. James, J. Jones
PF - C. Bosh, U. Haslem, J. Howard
C - J. Anthony, Z. Ilgauskas, J. Magloire, D. Pittman

Either way, with this much talent Erik Spoelstra really can't go wrong.

Statistics for Heat players from the Vegas Summer League mentioned in this article can be found in this spreadsheet or in this blog post.


Like this post? It's even better with video! Check it out at Bleacher Report.

Running With The Bulls Without Erick Dampier

I received the following comment on my last piece about the Heat winning 72 games, “Apparently the Heat don't care about 72 games, or they would have picked up Dampier.”  I’ve been looking through the numbers to see if there’s any statistical justification for declining to invite Erick Dampier to Heat training camp and I haven’t been able to find much.  Of course, the statistical models I used to guide my search were Win Score, Estimated Wins Produced, Estimated Wins Produced per 48 minutes (EWP48), Wins Produced and Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48).  An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48).  For more information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

After searching for hours, I've come to the conclusion that there’s no way around it – Dampier’s better than any traditional center the Heat invited to camp.  Here’s a list of what the Heat could have expected each center to produce on a per-minute basis this season before training camp began.

Productivity Forecast for Dampier & Heat Centers Invited to Training Camp
Erick Dampier (Age 35):               0.130 WP48
Joel Anthony (Age 28):                -0.034 WP48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Age 35):       -0.060 WP48
Jamaal Magloire (Age 32):             0.051 WP48
Dexter Pittman (Age 22):              -0.499 EWP48 (2010 summer league production)
Mickell Gladness (Age 24):           -0.348 EWP48 (2010 summer league production)

The forecast is based on the impact of age on the performance of an average NBA player reported in Stumbling on Wins by David Berri and Martin Schmidt.

Clearly, Dampier could improve the Heat’s production at the center position if he signed with the team and would increase the likelihood of winning more than 72 games.  Will the team regret telling him to kick rocks?  On another Miami Heat blog, Asylum For Ira’s Followers, a writer named Cyrus listed 10 reasons why the Heat won’t regret passing on Dampier.  Let’s see what Wins Produced has to say about the top five using original data from basketball-reference.com.

1) Joel Anthony is one of the league's best shot blockers.  He averaged 1.4 blocks in just 16.5 minutes per game last season.  That projects to around three blocks per game if given starters minutes.  Miami had a 13-3 record during Joel's 16 starts last season.  While he is still raw in many aspects of the game, he sets excellent, crushing screens and keeps balls alive on the offensive glass.  He is not an excellent on the boards and still struggles catching the ball cleanly, but his intangibles have earned him a five-year, $18 million extension.  He could be the starting center for years to come if he can maintain last year's winning ways—it projects to 67 wins over the course of a season, by the way.

What Wins Produced Has To Say:

Anthony averaged 27.6 minutes in 16 games as a starter last season.  As a starter, his shot-blocking averaged decreased by 16% to 1.9 per game.  Coincidentally, his foul rate also decreased by 22% as a starter.  My guess is that Anthony couldn’t be as aggressive blocking shots as a starter last year because the Heat didn’t have a lot of depth at the center position.  With Bosh, Haslem and potentially four centers on the final roster, Anthony should be able to remain an aggressive shot-blocker if he starts this season.  So, if he averages three blocks in 36 minutes per game for 80 games this season, then Anthony’s shot-blocking would be worth 4.2 wins to the Heat – that’s 1.3 wins more than Dampier’s shot-blocking would be worth in the same number of minutes.  Dampier, however, is coming off a season that only saw him play 55 games due to injuries.  If he’s limited to 55 games this season, then Anthony’s shot-blocking would be worth 2.2 more wins than Dampier’s.  The problem with Anthony, though, is that he does more than block shots when he’s on the floor – and he does almost all of it poorly.  His rebounding is below average, as Cyrus mentioned.  He’s also below average at his position when it comes to scoring, steals, assists and fouls.  The funny thing is that despite his reputation for having bad hands, he’s above average when it comes to protecting the ball from turnovers (which leads me to believe his teammates were credited with turnovers for the passes he dropped).  As for the Heat’s success with Anthony as a starter last season, it seemed to be in spite of him.  His performance actually cost the Heat an estimated 0.5 wins in the 16 games he started and that’s the problem with Joel Anthony.  When all the shot-blocking is done, and the rest of his stats are accounted for, Anthony is worth 5–10 wins less than Dampier as a starter (depending on Dampier’s health).

2) Zydrunas Ilgauskas was one of the first veterans to jump on board and sign a minimum contract.  He has had an amazing career.  Yes, he had a down year last year, averaging 7.4 points and 5.4 rebounds in just 21 minutes of action per game, but was contributing 12.9 points and 7.5 rebounds in 27 minutes of action the year before Shaquille O'Neal was acquired.  That's a higher combination of points and rebounds than Dampier ever delivered for Dallas.  The perception may be that Ilgauskas is a dinosaur, but he is in fact just one month Dampier's senior.  LeBron still believes he has something left in the tank and they have great chemistry together.  I wouldn't be so sure that Ilgauskas will not have a better season than Erick Dampier.

What Wins Produced Has To Say:

Ilgauskas has been slightly above average for his career with an estimated 0.112 WP48 and an estimated 51 wins produced but his production fell off a cliff last season, which was the first time in his career that he wasn’t a starter.  He’s always been a better scorer than Dampier but not a better rebounder.  The season before Shaq came to Cleveland, Big Z averaged 13.3 rebounds per 48 minutes compared to Dampier’s 14.8 rebounds per 48 minutes.  The rebounding difference between Ilgauskas and Dampier is worth 1.5 wins (assuming both players came off the bench for 840 minutes during the season).  Big Z makes up for that deficiency with his superior scoring, free throw shooting and passing abilities, but not by much.  Those advantages for Ilgauskas are worth 2 more projected wins than Dampier would provide in those categories for a net advantage of 0.5 wins.  Unfortunately for the Heat, the disadvantages of choosing Ilgauskas over Dampier are not as slim.  Compared to the rest of the league’s centers, he was below average in getting to the line, scoring, rebounding, steals, shot-blocking, assists and fouls.  The result is that Big Z is projected to be worth 3.4 wins less than Dampier.  The decline in Big Z’s production from 2009 to 2010 was steeper than expected but an average player would still be expected to provide negative production at 35 years old.  If last season is ignored for Ilgauskas’s projection, then the forecast for his WP48 increases from -0.060 to 0.047.  While he would still be expected to be below average, the gap between his value and Dampier’s value as a backup playing 840 minutes would decrease from 3.4 wins to 1.4 wins.  Either way, Dampier remains a more productive player, despite being the same age as Ilgauskas.

3) Jamaal Magloire was actually an All-Star in 2003-04, thanks to a weakened class of centers in the Eastern Conference, the last year either player averaged a double-double.  Nowadays, it is pretty widely accepted that Dampier is a more reliable option.  The 32-year-old Heat center now has three advantages over Mr. Dampier.  He is three years younger, has already accepted a bench role, and is the resident bad boy on the roster.  When the Heat and Celtics got into an altercation during last year's playoffs, Magloire was the intimidating presence that seemingly made Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett reconsider whether they should exchange blows with Miami players.  Stan Van Gundy said it best "Jamaal Magloire has a role and that role is to beat the hell out of people."  He is not going anywhere.

What Wins Produced Has To Say:

Magloire is definitely better at beating the hell out of people than Dampier.  The Big Cat is projected to average 7.6 fouls per 48 minutes next season compared to Dampier’s 5.5 fouls per 48 minutes.  Magloire “beating the hell out of people” cost the Heat about 1 win last season while Dampier’s hacking cost the Mavericks 2.4 wins last season in about 3.5 times more minutes.  On a per minute basis, however, Dampier averages less fouls than all of the centers invited to Heat training camp.  Maybe that’s why the team wasn’t interested in Dampier – he wasn’t the enforcer they were looking for in the middle.

4) Dexter Pittman was picked by Miami at the top of the second round ahead of potential lottery picks like Solomon Alabi and Hassan Whiteside.  When Riley says that he likes Dexter, you have to believe him, because he had a chance to draft either of the bigs that had lottery potential and passed in favor of the big man out of Texas…  He had his ups and downs during summer league play, but that was to be expected from the prospect who once weighed over 400 pounds.

What Wins Produced Has To Say:

Dexter Pittman was the 17^th most productive NCAA player drafted, so he was definitely a smart second round draft pick for the Heat.  However, he was also the least productive player on the Heat summer league team with -0.173 EWP48 (good news for Heat fans is that Berri reported summer league performance doesn’t say much about regular season performance).  After three pre-season games, his productivity has improved to 0.004 EWP48 (good/bad news for Heat fans is that rookie pre-season performance is an indicator of regular season performance).  The swings in production from summer league to pre-season are good examples of the ups-and-downs that Cyrus was probably talking about.  Dampier was not a productive player his rookie season either, with -0.017 EWP48.  In fact, he produced less than zero estimated wins in five of his first six seasons in the league.  In six years, maybe Pittman will become as productive as Dampier and the Heat will have a productive center but for now, the doughnut remains.

5) Chris Bosh… Expect Bosh to play the Gasol role in Miami if the other centers are not earning their minutes.

What Wins Produced Has To Say:

Bosh is more than capable of filling in at center.  Last season, he was the sixth most productive player in the NBA at center with 11.7 wins produced in 2,526 minutes.  Dampier was only able to play half that many minutes last season and has only played more than 2,500 minutes once in his career.  Bosh produced 7.5 more wins at center than Dampier last season.  After Saturday’s pre-season game against the Spurs, South Florida Sun-Sentinel reporter Ira Winderman reported the following on his blog:

“Spoelstra said he does not see an issue occasionally casting Bosh at center.  ‘I think the more you ask him, the less he’ll care,’ he said, ‘especially when you’re flanked by a warrior like Udonis Haslem.’

Spoelstra said he likes the combination of Bosh and Haslem, who was held out Saturday due to a sore shoulder.  ‘It’s also a dynamic rebounding duo for us and offensively it gives us some versatility,’ Spoelstra said.”

I think playing Bosh at center gives the Heat their best chance of breaking the ’96 Bulls’ record of 72 wins because it will allow Haslem to play over 2,000 minutes at power forward.  A lineup with that frontcourt, Carlos Arroyo as the starting point guard and Mike Miller as sixth man (splitting time between shooting guard and small forward), would provide 73 wins by itself, as illustrated in the table below.

The Wins Produced for LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were taken from HERE.  The Wins Produced for Arroyo, Haslem and Miller were calculated using numbers from the Wins Produced Viewer and are based on the impact of age on performance as reported in Stumbling On Wins.

With the top six players producing nearly 74 wins, the only thing that could prevent the Heat from breaking the record would be negative productivity from the bottom six players on the rosters.  The bottom six players for the ’96 Bulls produced -6.1 wins.  Five of the eight veterans invited to training camp for the 2011 Heat produced less than zero wins last season – Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Joel Anthony and Shavlik Randolph.  Strangely enough, garbage time for the Heat this season could be the difference between a great regular season and the greatest regular season of all-time.  And maybe that's where the Heat will regret not signing Dampier - he would've been one less garbage player to put on the floor when the game's out of reach.

Running With the Bulls: Miami Heat May Need More From Erik Spoelstra and Chris Bosh for 72 Wins

Experts weigh in on Heat challenging for wins record: South Florida Sun-Sentinel Staff writer Ira Winderman asked a panel of four NBA experts to compare the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who set an NBA record with a 72-10 regular-season record, and the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who some think can challenge that mark. Winderman asked Sam Smith of Bulls.com, Steve Smith of NBATV, Alvin Gentry of the Phoenix Suns and Jack Ramsay of ESPN to compare the two teams in seven categories - Leading Man, Running Mate, Power Keys, Contributing Wings, Primary Big Men, Supporting Cast and Head Coach. Lets compare the experts' opinions from Winderman's article to what Wins Produced had to say.

Wins Produced was developed by Prof. David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal.  It calculates a player's individual contributions to their team's wins based on box score statistics.  Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) measures those contributions on a per-minute basis.  An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes.  Win Score is a simpler calculation that can be used to estimate wins produced and WP48.
For more information on Wins Produced and Win Score, see the links listed below.

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Leading Man

The first comparison was Michael Jordan for the 1996 Bulls vs. LeBron James for the 2011 Heat. The panel unanimously gave the nod to Michael Jordan. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Michael Jordan (1995-96): 0.386 WP48, 24.9 Wins Produced

LeBron James (2010-11): 0.452 WP48, 27.9 Wins Produced

Michael Jordan's numbers were taken from HERE.

The forecast for LeBron James' numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010.

Wins Produced says that LeBron's expected performance for the 2011 Heat should get the nod over Jordan's performance for the 1996 Bulls. While I understand that most reporters and analysts consider Michael Jordan to be the best player in NBA history, I didn't understand the panel's reasons for picking a 32 year-old Jordan over a 25 year-old LeBron. If the comparison was between a 25 year-old Jordan and 25 year-old LeBron, then it wouldn't be close. Jordan produced an estimated 34.1 wins with a 0.502 WP48 when he was 25. Here are some of the panel's justifications for choosing Jordan at age 32 over LeBron at age 25:

Sam Smith: LeBron demonstrated by his choice that he's not a leading man. Michael is a leading man, a guy who is going to carry a team.

This is more of the same garbage that haters have been throwing around all summer - "an alpha dog/male would never choose to join forces with another alpha dog/male." That argument is garbage for many reasons but lets start with the fact that human beings aren't animals (despite repeated attempts to describe black people that way) and lets end with Doc Rivers' de-bunking the myth that legends from the 80's and 90's wouldn't have done the same thing as LeBron.

Steve Smith: "Michael was just at a different place at that time. He was older, more experienced, more primed to win a championship."

How was Jordan "more primed to win a championship" at 32 years-old than LeBron at age 25? Jordan had already won three titles! Lets say I concede that Jordan entered the '96 season with a larger chip on his shoulder than usual because the '95 season ended with a loss to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, he blamed himself for the loss because he was rusty from taking two years off to play baseball and he vowed to redeem himself and take revenge on the entire league. Doesn't LeBron have a larger chip on his shoulder after being ridiculed and hated on all summer by everyone from fans to hall-of-famers and getting beatdown in the playoffs for a second straight season despite having the best record in the league? And that doesn't even take into consideration that he hasn't won a title and is starving for one - it's the primary reason he signed with the Heat! Watch him at media day and tell me he doesn't seem "primed to win a championship."

Jack Ramsay: "Michael. He's the better all-around player."

Because I've lived through this era of Jordan-worship, I was predisposed to believe Ramsay's point until I saw that LeBron was the more productive player. The figure below compares Jordan's box score statistics from 1996 to LeBron's from 2010.

STATISTIC - MJ (Avg. per 48 mins) / LBJ (Avg. per 48 mins)

Points per shot - Jordan (1.05) / LeBron (1.09)

Adj. shooting % - Jordan (52.4%) / LeBron (54.5 %)

Free throw % - Jordan (83.4%) / LeBron (76.7%)

Shot attempts - Jordan (28.8) / LeBron (24.7)

FT attempts - Jordan (10.2) / LeBron (12.6)

Points scored - Jordan (38.7) / LeBron (36.6)

Rebounds - Jordan (8.4) / LeBron (9.0)

Steals - Jordan (2.8) / LeBron (2.0)

Turnovers - Jordan (3.1) / LeBron (4.2)

Net Possessions - Jordan (8.1) / LeBron (6.8)

Blocked shots - Jordan (0.6) / LeBron (1.2)

Assists - Jordan (5.5) / LeBron (10.6)

Personal fouls - Jordan (3.1) / LeBron (2.0)

Points per shot (PPS) = (PTS-FTM)/FTA; Adj. shooting % = PPS/2; Net possessions = (REBS+STL-TO). Original data taken from basketball-reference.com.

Wow... it's pretty close. The King is a more efficient shooter but His Airness was a better volume scorer. LeBron is a better rebounder but '96 Jordan was better at acquiring and protecting possessions for his team. Finally, LeBron is better at shot-blocking, passing and avoiding fouls than Jordan was on that record-setting Bulls team. So Dr. Jack was wrong - at 32 years-old, Jordan was not a better all-around player than a 25 year-old LeBron.

What Wins Produced Says: 2011 LeBron is a better leading man than '96 Jordan.

Running Mate

The second comparison was '96 Scottie Pippen vs. 2011 Dwyane Wade. The panel was split 2-2. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Scottie Pippen (1995-96): 0.269 WP48, 15.8 Wins Produced

Dwyane Wade (2010-11): 0.248 WP48, 14.4 Wins Produced

Scottie Pippen's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

The forecast for Dwyane Wade's numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010.

Wins Produced agrees that it's a close contest between Pippen and Wade but Scottie was more productive in '96 than Wade is projected to be in 2011. Wade's projection is based on research of player performance declining with age from Stumbling on Wins but it is a projection, which means it's not a guarantee. Personally, I believe that Wade's performance will be closer to his 2009-levels since Pat Riley believes he might be in the same condition he was in after the 2008 Olympics when he produced 21.0 wins with 0.331 WP48 (see the Wages of Wins Journal). Winderman also reported that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Wade may be in his best shape ever.

What Wins Produced Says: '96 Pippen was a better running mate than Wade will be in 2011.

Power Keys

The third comparison was of each team's power forwards. The panel chose the '96 Bulls power forwards (Dennis Rodman and Toni Kukoc) 3-1 over the Heat power forwards (Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem). Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Dennis Rodman (1995-96): 0.415 WP48, 18.1 Wins Produced

Toni Kukoc (1995-96): 0.193 WP48, 8.5 Wins Produced

Chris Bosh (2010-11): 0.232 WP48, 12.2 Wins Produced

Udonis Haslem (2009-10): 0.160 WP48, 7.3 Wins Produced

Rodman and Kukoc's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

The forecast for Chris Bosh's numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010. Haslem's numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

The '96 Bulls had the better power forwards. In 4,191 minutes, Rodman and Kukoc combined to produce 26.6 wins with 0.305 WP48 while Bosh and Haslem only combined to produce 19.5 wins in 4,703 minutes with 0.199 WP48. The only member of the panel to pick the Heat power forwards was Ramsay. Here's his explanation:

Jack Ramsay: "I think Bosh is the better all-around of that group. Rodman, of course, was a great defender and rebounder. I like Bosh very much. He's a very skilled player."

The last time Ramsay said someone was a better all-around player he was wrong. Lets see if Wins Produced thinks he's more accurate this time.

STATISTIC - Rodman (Avg. per 48 mins) / Bosh (Avg. per 48 mins)

Points per shot - Rodman (0.96) / Bosh (1.05)

Adj. shooting % - Rodman (47.9%) / Bosh (52.4%)

Free throw % - Rodman (52.8%) / Bosh (79.7%)

Shot attempts - Rodman (7.1) / Bosh (21.9)

FT attempts - Rodman (2.5) / Bosh (11.2)

Points scored - Rodman (8.1) / Bosh (31.9)

Rebounds - Rodman (21.9) / Bosh (14.4)

Steals - Rodman (0.9) / Bosh (0.8)

Turnovers - Rodman (3.2) / Bosh (3.2)

Net possessions - Rodman (19.6) / Bosh (12.0)

Blocked shots - Rodman (0.6) / Bosh (1.3)

Assists - Rodman (3.7) / Bosh (3.2)

Personal Fouls - Rodman (4.6) / Bosh (3.2)

Points per shot (PPS) = (PTS-FTM)/FTA; Adj. shooting % = PPS/2; Net possessions = (REBS+STL-TO). Original data taken from basketball-reference.com.

Looks like Ramsay was right on this one. Bosh is indeed the better all-around player, surpassing Rodman in 9 statistical categories. He's better at shooting efficiency and volume, getting to the foul line, blocking shots and staying out of foul trouble. However, Rodman was so much better acquiring possession of the ball that he was much more productive than Bosh overall.

What Wins Produced Says: Rodman and Kukoc were better power forwards for the '96 Bulls than Bosh and Haslem will be for the Heat in 2011.

Contributing Wings

The fourth comparison was between the top two perimeter players for each team - Ron Harper and Steve Kerr for the '96 Bulls vs. Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers for the 2011 Heat. The panel unanimously chose Harper and Kerr over Miller and Chalmers. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Ron Harper (1995-96): 0.143 WP48, 5.6 Wins Produced

Steve Kerr (1995-96): 0.129 WP48, 5.2 Wins Produced

Mike Miller (2009-10): 0.230 WP48, 8.7 Wins Produced

Mario Chalmers (2009-10): 0.035 WP48, 1.3 Wins Produced

Harper and Kerr's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Miller and Chalmers' numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

This one is close. In 3,805 minutes, Harper and Kerr combined to produce 10.8 wins with 0.136 WP48. In 3,612 minutes, Miller and Chalmers combined to produce 10.0 wins with 0.133 WP48. The Harper/Kerr combo for the '96 Bulls was more productive by a very slim margin.  The panel did give the Miller/Chalmers combo some credit but the key comment comes from Ramsay:

Jack Ramsay: "None of those other guys can shoot like Kerr. Miller, I think, is a little better than average all-around. Chalmers has yet to be defined."


Ramsay is right on two fronts - Miller is the best all-around player of the four and Chalmers has yet to be defined.  In his rookie season, Chalmers was much more productive with 0.099 WP48 and 5.4 wins produced.  If Chalmers and Coach Spoelstra can figure out a way for him to return to that level of productivity, then the Heat would have the advantage over the Harper/Kerr combo.  Until that happens, the '96 Bulls get the nod.
What Wins Produced Says: Harper and Kerr were better contributing wings for the '96 Bulls than Miller and Chalmers are expected to be for the 2011 Heat.


Primary Big Men
The fifth comparison was between the big men for each team - Luc Longley and Bill Wennington for the '96 Bulls vs. Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for the 2011 Heat.  The panel was split on this one 1-1-2 (two panelists thought they were even).  Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED
Luc Longley (1995-96): -0.016 WP48, -0.5 Wins Produced
Bill Wennington (1995-96): -0.078 WP48, -1.7 Wins Produced
Joel Anthony (2009-10): -0.017 WP48, -0.5 Wins Produced
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (2009-10): -0.040 WP48, -1.1 Wins Produced

Longley and Wennington's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Anthony and Ilgauskas' numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

In a race to the bottom, the Anthony/Ilgauskas combo should be expected to have less of a negative impact than the Longley/Wennington combo had on the '96 Bulls.  Many pundits have cited the mediocre centers on the Heat roster as the roadblock that will prevent them from winning 70+ games and the NBA title but the Bulls were able to do it with even less productive players in the middle.  Here's what the authors of The Wages of Wins had to say about the '96 Bulls on pages 151-152:

"The best team in NBA history did not have a center whose wins production exceeded zero... the productivity we observe from Chicago's centers leads us to conclude that the best team in the history of the NBA had little in the middle.  In essence, the best team was a doughnut."

Yes, the Heat should expect nothing in the middle from Anthony or Ilgauskas but they can play Bosh at center and Haslem at power forward, so the lack of a dominant big man is not a reason to diminish their chances of winning more than 72 games.  Another interesting point is that the '96 Bulls had five centers on the roster (the other three were John Salley, Jack Haley and James Edwards) and the Heat also went into training camp with five big men on the roster (the other three are Jamaal Magloire, Juwan Howard and Dexter Pittman).  Maybe Jerry Krause and Pat Riley knew they had deficiencies in the middle and tried to compensate for it with quantity instead of quality.

What Wins Produced Says: Anthony and Ilgauskas should be better big men for the 2011 Heat than Longley and Wennington were for the '96 Bulls.

Supporting Cast

The sixth comparison was between the supporting casts for each team - Jud Buechler, Randy Brown, Dickey Simpkins, James Edwards and Jason Caffey for the '96 Bulls vs. Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire and Carlos Arroyo for the 2011 Heat. The panel voted 3-1 for the Heat.  Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Jud Buechler (1995-96): 0.143 WP48, 2.2 Wins Produced

Randy Brown (1995-96): 0.010 WP48, 0.1 Wins Produced

Dickey Simpkins (1995-96): 0.007 WP48, 0.1 Wins Produced

James Edwards (1995-96): -0.393 WP48, -2.2 Wins Produced

Jason Caffey (1995-96): -0.136 WP48, -1.5 Wins Produced

Eddie House (2009-10): -0.009 WP48, -0.2 Wins Produced

Juwan Howard (2009-10): -0.002 WP48, -0.1 Wins Produced

Jamaal Magloire (2009-10): 0.068 WP48, 0.5 Wins Produced

Carlos Arroyo (2009-10): 0.095 WP48, 3.1 Wins Produced

Numbers for the '96 Bulls were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Numbers for Heat players were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

Jud Buechler is the most productive player in that list but the '96 Bulls also had the two worst players - James Edwards and Jason Caffey.  Since the Heat supporting cast played more minutes last season for various teams, they were able to produce more wins so WP48 is a better tool for comparison.  The average WP48 for the '96 Bulls supporting cast is -0.021.  The average WP48 for the Heat players was 0.033 last season.

What Wins Produced Says: 2011 Heat supporting cast should be better than the supporting cast for the '96 Bulls.

Head Coach

The final comparison was between the head coaches - Phil Jackson for the '96 Bulls vs. Erik Spoelstra for the 2011 Heat.  The panel unanimously voted for Jackson.  In Stumbling on Wins (the sequel to The Wages of Wins), the authors report that players "tend to get better when they come to Phil Jackson," (based on the results from a 2009 study of 62 NBA coaches from 1978 to 2008) and Prof. Berri told Toronto Star columnist Dave Feschuk that "players don't get worse after they leave Jackson".  The study suggested that Jackson is worth an additional 17 wins in his first year with a team - more than any other coach.  Spoelstra was not included in the study since he didn't become a head coach until the 2009 season.  Despite a 28-win improvement when he took over the team in 2009 and a four-win improvement in 2010, 11 of the 20 players coached by Spoelstra had a higher Win Score when they played for other coaches.

What Wins Produced Says: Jackson was likely a better head coach in '96 than Spoelstra will be in 2011

Summary

After seven comparisons, here's the rundown:

Leading Man - 2011 Heat

Running Mate - '96 Bulls

Power Keys - '96 Bulls

Contributing Wings - '96 Bulls

Primary Big Men - 2011 Heat

Supporting Cast - 2011 Heat

Head Coach - '96 Bulls

The '96 Bulls were better than the Heat in four of the seven categories, but if Wade doesn't decline as Berri projected and Chalmers can produce like he did during his rookie season, then the Heat would surpass the '96 Bulls in every category except Power Keys and Coaching.  Do the Heat need to match the '96 Bulls in all seven categories to win more than 72 games in 2011?  I don't know.  Another Wages of Wins Journalist, Arturo Galletti, only projected the Heat to win 68 games in his last revision.  Only time will tell if the Heat need better coaching from Spoelstra or more productivity from Bosh and Haslem to get an extra five wins and break the '96 Bulls' 72-win record.

Like Father, Like Son? Heat Sign Anthony Mason Jr.

HEAT Sign Anthony Mason Jr. & Mickell Gladness

The Heat announced that Anthony Mason, Jr. and Mickell Gladness were the last two players signed for training camp. My first post on this blog, The Bottom Three, reported the productivity of the Heat Summer League team and whether the best players were chosen for the bottom three spots on the roster. Anthony Mason, Jr. and Mickell Gladness were invited to participate in Vegas but Mason Jr. didn't play a single minute for the Heat in summer league so I can't directly compare him to the bottom three of Shavlik Randolph, Kenny Hasbrouck and Dexter Pittman based on productivity against entry-level NBA competition but I can do that for Gladness.  Gladness was one of the least productive players for the Heat in summer league.  He produced an estimated -0.048 wins in 29 minutes.  Patrick Beverley and Dexter Pittman were the only two players in Vegas that were less productive for the Heat, but since they were signed to contracts and invited to training camp I guess Gladness warranted an invitation, too.  However, I don't expect him to be a serious threat to make the team based on the premise that the first to sign shall be the last ones cut and the last ones signed will be the first ones cut.

For Anthony Mason, Jr. I'll use his college numbers to evaluate whether he should make the team over the bottom three. Mason's college productivity will be measured by Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) using the same method as the Wages of Wins Journal.

As a 6'7", 209 lb. forward, Mason produced a 7.4 WS40 last season at St. John's University (see the SR/College Basketball site for his stats). An average NCAA small forward produced a 9.95 WS40 last season. That leaves Mason with a position-adjusted WS40 (PAWS40) of 7.6. From 1995-2009, the average PAWS40 for a player selected out of college was just about 10.0. That means Anthony Mason, Jr. is a below average college prospect for the NBA (which explains why he wasn't drafted). Here's how Mason compares to the other players drafted by the Heat this year:

PLAYER - PAWS40

Dexter Pittman - 11.3

Da'Sean Butler - 8.3

Anthony Mason, Jr. - 7.6

Maybe Mason will challenge for Butler's spot (if he even has one) while he recovers from blowing his knee out in the Final Four, but the numbers don't seem to indicate he should pose much of a threat to Pittman when it comes to making the Heat roster. At this point, it's time for a PAWS40 disclaimer from the Wages of Wins Journal:

"[I]t must be emphasized (as has been noted in prior discussions of the draft), PAWS40 is correlated with future performance in the NBA. But it is not a crystal ball. So just because a player is above average, that does not mean he will be an above average NBA player. And below average players with respect to PAWS40 might become above average NBA players."

So there's a chance that Mason could exceed expectations in training camp and draining jumpers over LeBron James is a good start but it's more likely that he'll be cut before October 26th. Or perhaps Mason Jr. will start to play more like his father. Anthony Mason, Sr. produced an 11.6 Win Score his senior year at Tennessee State in 1988 and produced an 11.7 Win Score in 2001 with the Miami Heat, which translates to an estimated wins produced per 48 minutes of 0.146 (average EWP48 is 0.100). Anthony Mason, Sr. was an above average player for Miami, but if his son was going to follow in his footsteps I think he would have been more productive last season at St. John's. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the D-League like the son of another famous Knickerbocker.

ESPN - Where Biting Happens

For Heat, an L.A. story - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN

Thanks to Devin Dignam of the NBeh? blog for alerting me to the fact that ESPN is biting my style (see link above). We'll see which blog is more interesting this season. I accept the challenge.

Who Is The Greatest Forward In Miami Heat History? Not LeBron James. Not Yet.

The Greatest Heat Team of All Time - ESPN

ESPN.com has a great app (click the link above) that allows fans to pick the best players of all-time for your favorite team so I decided to take some time to identify the most productive Heat players from the ESPN.com app using player data from basketball-reference.com to estimate the Wins Produced by each player.

B.I.W.: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade? | Bleacher Report

With the 2010 FIBA World Championships concluded, I've posted an update to the LeBron vs. Durant post from August on Bleacher Report. Check it out and leave a comment.

Best In The World: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade? | Bleacher Report

Arachnophobia: Why The Heat Should Fear The Durantula

I just posted a new Bleacher Report article on Team USA summarizing their performance in the preliminary round of the 201 FIBA World Championships. Durant's performance after 5 games surpassed LeBron's performance in the 2008 Olympics. Check it out:

Arachnophobia: Why FIBA Should Fear The Durantula At The World Championships | World Domination: Kevin Durant Is Leading Team USA to The World Championship | Bleacher Report

To see updated 2010 Team USA stats for Durant, check out this spreadsheet.

To see 2008 Team USA stats for LeBron, check out this spreadsheet.

Leave a comment on who you think will be the better small forward this NBA season.

Kevin Durant & Team USA: A Less Dominant Road To Redemption | Bleacher Report

I've posted an article on Bleacher Report that evaluates Team USA using Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced before the World Championships start this Saturday. Check it out and leave a comment here or at Bleacher Report.

Kevin Durant & Team USA: A Less Dominant Road To Redemption | Bleacher Report