Heat-Lakers: Glazing The Donut And Looking Ahead

A lot has been made about the Miami Heat's lack of size in the paint and I've received several comments, like this one, stating that bigger teams will be able to exploit Miami's donut to their advantage. Do the Heat need more size up front to stop teams from trying to play them out like that groupie tried to play Rakim on Eric B. Is President?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The first thing I did to investigate this issue was use data from basketball-reference.com to calculate the average lbs/inch for each Heat opponent (see figures below).

Every team has a higher lbs/inch ratio than the Heat except for Orlando and if you omit Rashard Lewis, then their average lbs/inch moves from 2.87 to 2.93 and they become bigger than the Heat, too. The Heat big men average 2.91 lbs/in. Their opponents in the first 10 games average 3.01 lbs/in. Despite the size disadvantage, the Heat have managed to limit opposing big men to an average of 0.084 WP48 (see figures below).

But the Heat have played some bad teams, so let's limit the analysis to above average big men Miami has played (average WP48 > 0.100).

Under those conditions, the first thing that happens is the Celtics fall out of the sample because their big men have only managed to produce a sub-par average of 0.080 WP48 so far this season. Against the Heat, the Celtics big men only produced an average of 0.025 EWP48. Boston centers produced 0.096 EWP48 but their power forwards only produced -0.068 EWP48. The problem with the Celtics was that Miami allowed their perimeter players to be extremely productive in both losses with an average of 0.233 EWP48.

Let's shift the focus back to teams with above average big men. The list of Heat opponents with above average big men includes Orlando, Utah, Toronto and New Orleans. As the figure below illustrates, the Heat have struggled against above average big men.

Miami's played four of its 10 games against teams with above average big men and have lost an estimated 1.2 wins to those teams. The Heat have only lost 1.7 EWP against big men all season, so the other four teams' big men have only managed to produce 0.5 EWP in six games.

The question that started this post was a comment stating that the Heat need more size to handle the big men of the Lakers and Celtics. I've already addressed the Celtics - they're big men aren't necessarily a problem. What about the Lakers?

The Lakers big men currently produce an average of 0.233 WP48, which is better than any team the Heat have faced so far. Miami is 2-2 in four games against above average big men, including a 26-point blowout of the Magic (which have the most productive big men the Heat have faced so far). Will Miami overcome their current disadvantage against the Lakers in the paint or will L.A. glaze the Miami donut on Christmas Day?

If the Lakers big men produced 0.233 EWP48 against the Heat, then Miami would need to average 0.178 EWP48 across the other three positions (PG, SG, SF) to win the game. The Heat currently average 0.173 EWP48 across those positions.

So, if Miami holds the Lakers big men slightly below their average or the Heat perimeter players produce above their average, then they could beat L.A.

Remember, the Heat have been holding above average big men to 0.146 EWP48.

But the Lakers have some players with reputations as good perimeter defenders, too.

I can't wait until December 25th.

The WP48 stats used for this article were powered by Nerd Numbers. The EWP48 numbers were taken from the Heat Produced page.

Heat-Raptors: Where Garbage Time Didn't Happen

The Miami Heat had an 18-point lead on the Toronto Raptors three minutes into the third quarter after a monster dunk and three-point play by Chris Bosh. The most likely outcome seemed to be garbage time in the fourth quarter.

Only one problem - it didn't happen.

The Raptors went on a 16-3 run over the next six minutes as 12 of the Heat's next 14 plays ended in missed shots or turnovers. With a 2-7 team in the building on the second night of a back-to-back and the taste of a foul, two-game home losing streak in their mouths, why didn't the Heat finish the blowout of Toronto in the third quarter and render the entire fourth quarter garbage time?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap

The Heat didn't blowout the Raptors because they played their worst third quarter of the season with an average EWP48 of -0.097. Only four of the nine Miami players that saw the court in the third quarter made a positive contribution - Dwyane Wade (0.086 EWP48), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (0.287 EWP48), James Jones (0.268 EWP48) and Eddie House (0.336 EWP48).

Those four players combined to score eight points and grab five rebounds with only one missed shot and one turnover to produce an estimated 0.112 wins in 41.8 percent of the minutes played in the  third quarter.

The other five players combined to wipe out that production with an estimated -0.233 wins produced. The worst players in the period were the two that have taken the most criticism this season: Carlos Arroyo (-0.516 EWP48) and Joel Anthony (-0.974 EWP48).

Anthony lost his starting spot to Ilgauskas, who came through with 0.196 EWP48 for 29.8 minutes. I don't know how often Big Z will be able to play that many minutes. He has only played more than 30 minutes per game once in the last six seasons.

The change in coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation resulted in Anthony's minutes getting cut in half because he continued to play Bosh at center for 10+ minutes/game. I mentioned in the preview for this game that Bosh didn't match-up well with Toronto's power forwards. Spoelstra minimized this weakness by giving Bosh 48 percent of his minutes at center against the weaker Andrea Bargnani and David Andersen.

Before this game, Bosh's production at center was below average with just 0.056 EWP48, but he dominated Bargnani and Andersen to produce 0.745 EWP48 for 10.5 minutes. Bosh's domination was limited by foul trouble and he only played 21.7 minutes.

The odd thing was that Spoelstra kept Bosh on the bench for the rest of the game after he got his fifth foul with 9:50 left in the fourth quarter but I couldn't find any articles stating it was an issue. I still think it was odd...

The spotlight may have been on Bosh before the game, but once the lights go on in the American Airlines Arena it's always about Dwyane Wade. Wade led the team in wins produced for the sixth time this season with 0.485 EWP48 but only 22.8 percent of his production came after halftime.

Miami's own James Jones protected the Heat lead in the second half. He was the second-most productive player for the Heat with 0.428 EWP48 and 57.7 percent of his wins produced came in the fourth quarter.

Joey Dorsey kept Toronto in the game with an insane rebounding night. Dorsey grabbed 40.5 percent of available rebounds for the 15.9 minutes he was in the game. He got the Raptors so many possessions at such an incredible rate that he was their most productive player with a phenomenal 0.901 EWP48.

Like Bosh, Dorsey was saddled with foul trouble and didn't play much in the fourth quarter. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon kept the fourth quarter from becoming garbage time. Along with Dorsey, they were the only Raptors that performed above average in that quarter.

Calderon produced 0.201 EWP48 in the fourth quarter and 0.323 EWP48 for the game with a great shooting night (5-7 from the floor, 2-2 from the three-point line and 3-3 from the free throw line).

Bargnani produced 0.302 EWP48 in the fourth quarter by scoring nine points on 4-6 shooting from the floor, but he shot terribly for the game with just 22 points on 23 shots and four free throws (his adjusted shooting percentage was 39.1 percent). Bargnani also had a good second quarter with 0.347 EWP48 by scoring nine points on 4-6 shooting from the floor. Unfortunately, Bargnani missed all 11 shots he took in the first and third quarters to end the game with -0.088 EWP48.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Raptors. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled RAPTORS-111310).

The Big Picture
In addition to starting Big Z over Anthony, Spoelstra also changed his point guard rotation. He used Mario Chalmers as the first point guard off the bench instead of Eddie House. House usually comes into the game for Arroyo, but Spoelstra brought him in for Wade in the first quarter instead.

Chalmers made no positive contributions at point guard and House didn't do anything at shooting guard, either. The problem is that Chalmers has been below average all season at point guard (0.064 EWP48) but House had been very productive with 0.177 EWP48 for 67.7 minutes at the point. House has actually been below average at shooting guard all season with 0.056 EWP48 for 132.7 minutes.

When House plays point guard he obviously doesn't handle the ball but he does provide the knockdown shooting that Miami needs from that position. I don't know why he struggles with his shot in the shooting guard role but his adjusted shooting percentage is 11 points lower in lineups that use him at shooting guard.

Unless Chalmers picks his productivity up, I think Spoelstra needs to keep tinkering with the point guard rotation.

While I'm on the subject of point guards, the Heat's 6'8" point guard had a terribly unproductive game against the Raptors with just 0.011 EWP48. Thirteen missed shots from the floor, four missed shots from the line and just two rebounds in 39 minutes were the cause of LeBron's low productivity number. It was the first time LeBron's production was below 0.200 EWP48 since the second game of the season on October 27, 2010 against the 76ers.

The Bigger Picture
The Heat struggled defending another point guard but the problems guarding Calderon were more like the problems the Heat had guarding Ray Allen and not Rajon Rondo. According to the ESPN.com shot chart, the closest shot Calderon took was 17 feet away from the basket but Miami's defense allowed him to shoot 5-7 from the floor. With all the focus on better defense against penetrating point guards, Heat fans shouldn't overlook the team's recent defensive problems against perimeter shooters, either.

If the Heat do start to force more missed shots, then Bosh will need to maintain the improved rebounding he showed against his old team. He grabbed boards at a rate of 13.2 per 48 minutes against the Raptors. His season average is just 8.9 per 48 minutes.

If Bosh could average 13.2 rebounds per 48 minutes, then I think he would be back in the discussion of players that deserve to make the all-star team. Wade and LeBron's spots are secure with productivity numbers above 0.200 EWP48 but Bosh's spot is not with a 0.115 EWP48.

If Bosh rebounds every night like he's facing the Raptors, then his EWP48 would nearly double to 0.227 and put him above the threshold for NBA stardom. It would also leave just three eastern conference power forwards with a higher level of productivity - Al Horford, Josh Smith and Kevin Garnett (see the Wins Produced Viewer).

Of those three players, only Al Horford has a higher scoring average than Bosh per 36 minutes, according to basketball-reference.com. Since scoring dominates perception in the NBA, I think the odds of Bosh making his sixth straight all-star game would improve tremendously if he increased his rebounding.

Finally, back on the Heat side of things, Wade's great game and LeBron's sub-par game caused them to switch places on the Heat Produced list. Wade is once again the most productive player for Miami this season. The top five is listed below.

Player (Est. Wins Produced)
1. Dwyane Wade (1.92)
2. LeBron James (1.69)
3. Udonis Haslem (0.88)
4. James Jones (0.87)
5. Chris Bosh (0.77)

You can find all of the updated stats for the Miami Heat's Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and espn.com.

Raptors vs. Heat: Miami Favored To End Losing Streak With Extinction Level Event

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors enter tonight's game in surprising roles. The Heat have lost two home games in a row while the Raptors are trying to be the second underdog this week to sweep through the state of Florida after last night's defeat of the Orlando Magic.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 96.6 percent chance of beating the Raptors and sending their two-game losing streak into extinction.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.154 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 91.5 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One (last game was 112-107 loss to Boston Celtics on 11/11/10)
• Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Toronto Raptors
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.076 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 95.9
• Days Rest: Zero (last game was a 110-106 win in Orlando on 11/12/10)

There are several big questions surrounding the Heat in this game, but the biggest one will be whether or not Chris Bosh can breakout of his own two-game slump and dominate his old team after being outplayed by Paul Millsap and Kevin Garnett this week. The figure below illustrates how Bosh's performance this season compares to the replacement power forwards in Toronto, Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson.

It looks like the Raptors have not missed Bosh at all so far, and he has another uphill battle coming his way in the paint tonight but I don't think Toronto will be able to exploit that match-up enough to win the game.

Predicted score: Heat 105, Raptors 92

Stats for the Raptors were taken from the NBeh? blog. Chris Bosh's stats were taken from the Heat Produced page.


For more information on Win Score and Wins Produced see the article Wins Produced vs. Win Score.

Miami Heat Check: It Was All Good Just A Week Ago, Part 1

A week ago, the Miami Heat were in New Orleans with a 4-1 record and a winning streak. Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Mario Chalmers had enjoyed a good dinner with Chris Paul the night before and it was all good.

A week later, the Heat are home in Miami with a 1-3 record and two-game losing streak since that meal with Chris Paul in New Orleans. And it ain't all good after being involved in tough games with some Eastern Conference bodiers and Western Conference cap peelers. What happened?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Jazz 116, Heat 114
The week got off to a bad start with an amazing loss to the Utah Jazz who entered the game with just a 1.3 percent chance of winning. Paul Millsap squeezed out every drop of that 1.3 percent by scoring a career-high 46 points, including an unbelievable 11 points in the last 28 seconds of the fourth quarter, to lead a successful comeback from a 19-point halftime deficit. In hindsight, the prediction for that game looked silly and the good people of Bleacher Report let me know how silly they thought it was (see HERE and HERE).

The Heat have outscored opponents by 81 points in the third quarter and produced 3.6 more wins in that quarter over nine games for an average margin of 0.4 wins in the third quarter so far this season. It was the opposite story against Utah on Tuesday night. The Heat were less productive than their opponent in the third quarter for the first time this season. The Jazz produced an estimated 0.445 wins in the third quarter compared to an estimated 0.004 wins for the Heat.

Millsap owned the third quarter. He scored 18 points and produced an estimated 0.852 WP48. The second-most productive player in the quarter was Deron Williams with an estimated 0.680 WP48. The only Jazz starter that was below average in the third quarter was Raja Bell with an estimated -0.017 WP48.

Dwyane Wade (estimated 0.762 WP48) and Joel Anthony (estimated 0.313 WP48) were the only players on the Heat that came out of the locker room ready to play the second half. The other three starters were below average and combined to produce -0.133 wins in the third quarter.

As bad as the third quarter was for the Heat (it was their fourth-worst quarter this season), they were almost able to match that level of ineptitude in the fourth quarter as they put together their fifth-worst period of the season. The Jazz entered the fourth quarter trailing by 13 points but over the next 12 minutes they produced 0.4 more wins than the Heat.

When it was winning time, Millsap and Deron Williams went to work. They combined to produce an estimated 0.3 wins in the last five minutes of regulation and put Millsap in position to send the game into overtime with a put-back at the buzzer.

The Heat also gave Millsap a chance to win the game by missing seven free throws in the fourth quarter that were worth 0.1 wins. The Jazz produced an estimated 0.523 wins for the game compared to an estimated 0.477 wins for the Heat. Those free throws were crucial.

In overtime, Andrei Kirilenko won the game for the Jazz by stuffing the stat sheet AK-47 style. He scored five points without missing a shot, grabbed two rebounds and assisted a Kyrylo Fesenko layup. Kirilennko provided 83 percent of the team's production in overtime with the rest coming from two Francisco Elson free throws with 0.4 seconds left on the clock.

Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 10 points, two rebounds and two fouls that produced an estimated 0.110 wins for the Heat in overtime. That would have been enough to win but the rest of the team produced an estimated -0.165 wins to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

When it was all said and done, Utah's three-man Jazz band outplayed the Three Kings from Miami. Deron Williams, Millsap and Kirilenko all played like superstars and combined to produce an estimated 0.771 wins while LeBron James, Wade and Bosh only combined to produce an estimated 0.583 wins.

Dethroned: Comparing Utah's 3-Man Band to Miami's Three Kings
Deron Williams (0.318 EWP48) vs. Dwyane Wade (0.331 EWP48)
Andrei Kirilenko (0.313 EWP48) vs. LeBron James (0.279 EWP48)
Paul Millsap (0.343 EWP48) vs. Chris Bosh (0.099 EWP48)

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Jazz. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled JAZZ-110910).



Celtics 112, Heat 107
Two nights after the Musical Miracle By Biscayne Bay, the Heat lost their second game to the Celtics and their second consecutive game at home. The Heat came into the game with a 64.3 percent chance of winning but it didn't look like it after the opening tip.



The obvious problem for the Heat was that the Three Kings were outplayed by the Celtics' Big Three. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh only combined to produce an estimated 0.054 wins while Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combined to produce an estimated 0.699 wins. If Paul Pierce took his talents to South Beach, it didn't really show up in the box score because his production was well below average. A comparison of each team's Big Three is below.

Dethroned: Boston's Three-Leaf Clover vs. Miami's Three Kings
Ray Allen (0.386 EWP48) vs. Dwyane Wade (-0.400 EWP48)
Paul Pierce (0.025 EWP48) vs. LeBron James (0.364 EWP48)
Kevin Garnett (0.450 EWP48) vs. Chris Bosh (0.070 EWP48)

If you squint past the star power, the most productive player on the floor was Udonis Haslem who scored 21 points by only missing one shot, grabbed 10 rebounds, blocked one shot and had one steal with an estimated 0.558 WP48. The only other player with above average production was Eddie House (0.314 EWP48) who outplayed his replacement in Boston through three quarters, but Nate Robinson went off in the fourth quarter and ended the game with 0.679 EWP48.

One of the best things this Miami Heat team has brought back to the NBA for me this season was a hatred of the Boston Celtics. I grew up with the NBA in the '80s as a huge Magic Johnson fan and I felt weird rooting for the Celtics to keep Kobe Bryant from winning titles in two of the last three years. But from Paul Pierce's tweet to Big Baby's post-shower declaration, the Celtics' arrogance, trash-talking and bullying have brought back that hatred and that's why the two losses to Boston are frustrating (my little brother, who's a huge KG fan, doesn't help).

Eight players in the Heat's nine-man rotation have provided above average production (EWP48 > 0.100) this season, and the ninth player, Joel Anthony, is very close with 0.097 EWP48. The Celtics have cut that number in half. The spreadsheet below details Miami players' production against the Boston defense.



Haslem (0.453 EWP48) has been dominant against Boston and House (0.201 EWP48) has played like a star. LeBron (0.159 EWP48)  and Joel Anthony (0.126 EWP48) have both been above average, but the rest of the team has been horrific with an average EWP48 of -0.098 in the first two games with the Celtics.

It looks like the Heat's former video coordinator will have to look at a lot of video to figure out how to get Haslem and LeBron some help for their next game against the Celtics.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Celtics. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled CELTICS-111110).



Who is next up for the Heat? A Toronto team that just defeated Orlando.  What is next up for the Miami Heat Index? Part 2 of this article, which will analyze the bigger picture of what, if anything, is wrong with the Miami Heat.

Miami Heat Will Force Haters To Learn A New Tune After They Beat The Jazz

All of the analysts talking about the Miami Heat's supposed weaknesses at point guard and center will be exposed as false prophets tonight after Heat's home game against Deron Williams, Al Jefferson and the Utah Jazz.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 98.7 percent chance of beating the Jazz when they visit Miami tonight.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers that went into the formula:

>Miami Heat Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.187 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)

>Miami Heat Pace: 91.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)

>Miami Heat Days Rest: Two (last game was 101-89 win over N.J. Nets on 11/7/10)

>Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)

>Utah Jazz Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.092 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)

>Utah Jazz Pace: 95.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)

>Utah Jazz Days Rest: Two (last game was 109-107 2OT win over L.A. Clippers on 11/7/10)

I've mentioned previously that the Heat won't be favored to lose a home game all season and this game is a perfect example of why.  The Heat are literally twice as good as the Jazz and there should be no question about how this game will end.

The only question after this game will be whether or not the "experts" proclaiming the Heat's weaknesses at point guard and center will keep singing that same old, tired song after Deron Williams and Al Jefferson get run out of the building.

Predicted score: Heat 100, Jazz 86.

For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.

Miami Heat Check: Chris Paul, NJ Nets Illustrate Depth Of Problems At Point Guard And Center

LeBron James declared Chris Paul the best point guard in the NBA twenty-seven hours after CP3 performed pick-and-roll surgery on the Miami Heat defense and defeated them 96-93 in New Orleans Friday night. CP3's 13 points, 19 assists and five steals were definitely more convincing than the four-point, 17-assist, five-rebound stat line Rajon Rondo posted against the Heat on opening night or anything offered by former all-stars Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris.

No matter how qualified LeBron's point guard opinion may be now, it will be even more qualified in ten days after the Heat face Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash during a five-game home stand. The Heat will be the arbitrators in the great point guard debate this season. Miami's league-leading defense is the perfect test in a game of show and prove, and CP3 passed it with flying colors this weekend while Harris did not.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Weekend Game Recaps

The average point guard has only produced 0.016 EWP48 against the Heat this season. CP3 had the most productive game of any point guard against the Heat defense with 0.309 EWP48, surpassing the 0.263 EWP48 produced by Rondo.

CP3 provided 33 percent of the Hornets' production in their win over Miami. Another 59.5 percent was provided by Emeka Okafor, who produced an estimated 0.423 wins in 35 minutes (0.581 EWP48). CP3 created 26 percent of Okafor's production by breaking down the Heat defense and feeding him six assists on easy baskets off the pick-and-roll.

Many of the recaps for this game re-hashed the running story of the Heat's weaknesses at point guard and center, but the fact is that it was really a unique weakness defending CP3 that allowed he and Okafor to be so productive. Miami's defensive scheme pulled big men such as Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony away from the basket to defend the pick-and-roll because their guards could not contain CP3 coming off the pick. Before the game, Bosh said this scheme enables the opposing big men to grab offensive rebounds and easy buckets and that's exactly what happened in New Orleans.

No other team has been able to exploit that point guard-center match-up like CP3. Below is a list of the estimated wins produced by the point guard-center combination with the most minutes played for each team the Heat faced in their first seven games.

Team: PG & C (Combined Est. Wins Produced in Minutes Played)
Hornets: Chris Paul & Emeka Okafor (0.657 EWP in 71.2 minutes)
Celtics: Rajon Rondo & Glen Davis (0.397 EWP in 70.9 minutes)

76ers: Jrue Holiday & Thaddeus Young (0.170 EWP in 47.1 minutes)

T'Wolves: Sebastian Telfair & Nikola Pekovic (0.066 EWP in 51.6 minutes)

Magic: Jameer Nelson & Dwight Howard (0.029 EWP in 53.3 minutes)

Nets: Devin Harris & Brook Lopez (-0.110 EWP in 111 minutes)

Rondo was not as productive as CP3 exploiting the Heat at point guard and center, but he was still able to exploit it as an advantage for the Celtics. The production by Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young is misleading because all of that production came from Young using his speed advantage to take Udonis Haslem off-the-dribble instead of a pick-and-roll commanded by Holiday.

CP3 and Rondo have been the two most productive point guards in the league this season, so most teams won't be able to exploit the PG-C match-up the way they can. Deron Williams and Steve Nash were top five point guards last season, so the Heat will have to improve their pick-and-roll defense over the next 10 days if they don't want a repeat of what happened in Boston and New Orleans.

The pending onslaught of elite point guards comes with Carlos Arroyo experiencing a two-game slump.  His EWP48 for the last two games is -0.254. 

Speaking of slumps, nothing has brought Chris Bosh back to life this season like the New Jersey Nets front line. Bosh produced 0.483 EWP48 in his second game against the Nets after producing 0.293 EWP48 in the game at Newark, NJ. It was his best performance of the season and helped Bosh get his production back to being slightly above average for the season, but it will be interesting to see if he can be productive against the top 10 power forwards coming to the American Airlines Arena over the next 10 days - Paul Millsap (#2), Kevin Garnett (#9) and Reggie Evans, (#7).

Wade also had his two best games of the season against the Nets. He produced 0.525 EWP48 against the Nets Saturday night, which was actually a decrease from the 0.642 EWP48 he produced against them in Newark a week ago.

Unlike Bosh, Wade showed up against the Hornets. He was the second-most productive player in the game (behind OkaforAriza for the game-clinching three-pointer.

The spreadsheets below contain the Wins Produced analysis of the box scores for the Hornets and Nets games. You can also view them in at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheets labeled @HORNETS-110510 and NETS-110610).

The Big Picture
The most important development for the Heat this weekend was that Wade and LeBron James FINALLY connected on an alley-oop.



"Finally got an opportunity to throw him a lob. [I've been] trying to get one of those for seven games. He finally made one, let me say that," Wade said, according to HEAT.com.

On a more serious note, in the big picture scheme of things, the Heat painted themselves as front-runners this weekend.  The Hornets game was the first chance to establish their dominance since opening night by beating a legitimate playoff team on the road.

In the Heat Streak article, I noted that teams Miami had less than a 60 percent chance of beating on the road should be considered "potholes" in the schedule, i.e. a risk to interrupt a winning streak. The Heat only had a 58 percent chance of beating the Hornets on the road, according to the win probability formula developed by Arturo Galletti, and they fell right into the pothole. The next chance for the Heat to prove they're a great team will be November 24th in Orlando where they currently have a 35 percent chance of winning.

In order for the team to hit my 75-win prediction, I need them to start winning those pothole games in addition to beating up on weaker teams like the Nets and Timberwolves.

The Heat's quarter-by-quarter performance also came into focus for the big picture this weekend. The loss in New Orleans was similar to the loss in Boston because the team got blitzed in the first quarter as the Hornets outproduced them by a margin of 0.622 estimated wins produced. Essentially, the game was won in the first 12 minutes.

The Heat average 0.175 EWP48 as a team for the season, which projects to 71.6 wins produced and would make them the second-greatest team of all-time. They only average 0.100 EWP48 in the first quarter, which makes them completely average and allows every good team to build a lead in the first 12 minutes. No one has accused Erik Spoelstra of failing to have the team ready to play like I did, and the players have blamed themselves instead, according to HEAT.com.

"We need to learn that we can’t just show up," LeBron James said. "Every team from top to bottom is going to give us their best shot. We have to bring greater energy to the floor especially at the start of the game."

Dwyane Wade seconded LeBron's opinion. "They came out with a lot of energy," he said. "They jumped on us and that caused us to play from behind the whole game. That’s not the game we want to play."

My question - if the players know they haven't been starting off games with the right energy, then why hasn't the coach done anything about it yet? Will Spoelstra let the players figure it out for themselves when they visit Orlando in two weeks or will he be proactive?

The other issue with the Heat's performance-by-quarter is the way the team has been closing games. The fourth quarter has been the Heat's least productive with an average of 0.058 EWP48.

Why is this a big issue? Because it enables teams like the 76ers and Nets to try and steal games at the end. The fourth quarter against the Nets on Saturday night was the second-worst quarter of the season for Miami with an estimated -0.175 wins produced (the fourth quarter in Philadelphia was the worst with an estimated -0.218 wins produced).

If the Heat are going to be truly dominant, then I want them to keep their foot on the throats of every opponent. The below average players on the Heat roster have only played 2.4 percent of the available minutes, so it shouldn't matter who's in the game - they should be able to maintain the lead.

The Bigger Picture

The Heat have played three of the top four picks from the 2010 draft - Evan Turner (#2), Derrick Favors (#3) and Wesley Johnson (#4), as well as the 30th first round pick, Lazar Heyward. The spreadsheet below shows how their performances rank against the Heat.

Favors and Turner played like superstars against the Heat while Hayward and Johnson played like they were coached by Kurt Rambis and drafted by David Kahn. Go figure.

The Heat welcome number one pick John Wall and the Washington Wizards to Miami on November 29th.

You can find all of the updated stats for the Miami Heat's estimated wins produced for this season on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and espn.com. Some non-game data was taken from basketball-reference.com or powered by Nerd Numbers.

Defending The Pharaoh While Waiting For Superman

In a comment on his blog, Andres Alvarez (developer of the Wins Produced Viewer) essentially blamed the Pharaoh, Rashard Lewis, for Dwight Howard's failure to win a championship already.  Here's what Dre said:

"Poor Dwight, sub out Lewis for an average player and Orlando should have at least won one championship."

I found this comment surprising since Dre's own Wins Produced Viewer shows that Rashard's production was above average (0.130 WP48) for the 2009 playoff run when the Orlando Magic came closer than they ever had to winning an NBA championship in Howard's career.  I decided to investigate further by taking a look at Rashard Lewis' production in the NBA Finals against the LA Lakers.  Was he really the reason the Magic lost 4-1 to the Lakers?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Rashard Lewis is not the reason the Lakers beat the Magic in 2009. He produced an estimated 0.241 wins in the Finals (0.054 Est. WP48) going against Laker power forwards Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom (see the spreadsheets labeled 'MAGIC' HERE). An average power forward would've produced an estimated 0.286 wins (0.064 Est. WP48).  So Rashard wasn't that bad compared to an average power forward going up against Gasol and Odom, as illustrated in the spreadsheets HERE.

If I look at it game-by-game, then an average power forward would have swung Game 4 in Orlando's favor but none of the others. An average power forward would've produced an estimated 0.218 WP48 in Game 4 compared to the estimated 0.047 WP48 Rashard produced. So an average power forward would've gotten the series back to LA for Game 6 but not necessarily gotten Dwight Howard a championship.

The real question is, "Who's to blame for Dwight Howard not having a championship?"

I used 82games.com's Sortable NBA Team 'By Position' PER Ratings for 2009 to determine what level of production should have been expected against the Lakers.  I used the following formula to come up with the expected production for each player against the Lakers in the 2009 Finals:

([Lakers' Opp. PER @ position]/[Average PER @ position]*ADJ. P48) - [AVG. ADJ. P48 for Position] + 0.099 = Expected WP48

Here's the opponent PER for the Lakers at each position, along with the average PER at each position:

POS - Lakers' opponent PER (Average PER)

PG - 16.4 (17.1)

SG - 13.5 (15.8)

SF - 14.9 (15.7)

PF - 16.6 (17.7)

C - 17.1 (18.3)

Based on those numbers, the biggest gaps between actual and expected Wins Produced in the Magic in the 2009 Finals were as follows: 

Most Disappointing Magic Players in 2009 Finals

1. Rafer Alston (-0.458 Wins Produced)

2. Jameer Nelson (-0.427 Wins Produced)

3. Courtney Lee (-0.367 Wins Produced)

4. Dwight Howard (-0.340 Wins Produced)

5. Marcin Gortat (-0.190 Wins Produced)

6. Rashard Lewis (-0.175 Wins Produced)

There were a lot of people to blame before you get to Rashard Lewis.  The only player with an excuse for their decreased production in the Finals was Jameer Nelson who was returning from an injury.

More importantly, Dwight Howard was a bigger disappointment in the Finals than Rashard Lewis.  Howard was expected to produce 0.332 WP48 against the Lakers' defense but only managed to produce 0.256 WP48.  Howard still produced like a star in the 2009 Finals, but he was expected to produce like a superstar and came up short.

Fans of Howard and the Magic can stop blaming the Pharaoh and keep waiting for Superman to come through in the Finals.  Of course, the Miami Heat could make that a really long wait.

Timberwolves' Bane: With LeBron James On Point, James Jones and the Miami Heat Shoot Down Minnesota 129-97

Kevin Love made  two free throws and the Minnesota Timberwolves only trailed the Miami Heat by eight points with 75 seconds left in the first half.  Then LeBron James and James Jones decided to initiate the blowout sequence:

MIN 53-61 MIA
1:07 53-64 James Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)
0:52 Nikola Pekovic traveling 53-64
0:43 53-66 LeBron James makes driving layup
0:33 Luke Ridnour misses 26-foot three point jumper 53-66
0:32 53-66 James Jones defensive rebound
0:17 53-69 James Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)
0:00 Chris Bosh blocks Wesley Johnson's driving layup 53-69
0:00 53-69 Zydrunas Ilgauskas defensive rebound

Eight points, two assists, one rebound later and the lead was extended by the LeBron-Jones connection from eight to 16 by halftime.  The Heat came out of the locker room and went on a 20-1 run in the third quarter to really put the game away.

The Heat produced 91 percent of their win over the Timberwolves from the beginning of the second quarter to the end of the third quarter.  Thanks to LeBron and Jones, Minnesota's chances of winning were gone in 75 seconds.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap

As a team, the Miami Heat produced an estimated 1.51 wins versus the Timberwolves (see the box score below).  Ninety-one percent of that production came in the second and third quarters.  James Jones single-handedly provided 11 percent of the win in the last 75 seconds of the first half with his illmatic accuracy from three-point range.

LeBron James was straight-up dominant in the second and third quarters as he slid between point guard and point-forward with ease.  LeBron produced 0.604 EWP48 in the second quarter and 0.957 EWP48 in the third quarter.  That level of production is two to three times the amount expected from a superstar! Bow down to something greater than yourselves!

LeBron and Jones weren't the only superstars for the Heat in the second and third quarters.  They got plenty of superstar-level assistance from Joel Anthony (0.384 EWP48), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (0.353 EWP48) and Mario Chalmers (0.514 EWP48) in the second and third quarters.

Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carlos Arroyo also pitched in with stretches of superstar play in the second or third quarters.  The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the game's box score. You can also view an easier-to-read version at Google Docs by clicking on the spreadsheet labeled WOLVES-110210.

The Big Picture
The game against the Timberwolves was another big performance by the Heat reserves.  The bench provided 58 percent of the production in just 47 percent of the minutes.  Every player off the Heat bench was well above average except for Jerry Stackhouse and Juwan Howard.

The Timberwolves had the opposite problem. Only three Minnesota players had an above average performance - Kevin Love (0.234 EWP48), Nikola Pekovic (0.136 EWP48) and Lazar Hayward (0.259 EWP48).

Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, those players only accounted for 26 percent of the minutes played.  The rest of the team's performance wasn't just below average - it was below zero.  The other nine Timberwolves weren't producing wins, they were producing losses - and that made it an easy win for the Heat.

The Bigger Picture
LeBron got off to a rough start this season with 17 turnovers in the first two games.  His production has improved every game since and Tuesday night's game was his best yet.  He produced an estimated 0.3 wins with 0.444 EWP48 against the Timberwolves and had an assist-to-turnover ration of 12:1.

The season has not progressed as well for Bosh.  His EWP48 has been up and down in the first five games.

Opponent (Bosh EWP48)
vs. BOS (-0.056)
vs. PHI (0.211)
vs. ORL (0.157)
vs. NJN (0.293)
vs. MIN (-0.133)

The game against Minnesota was his worst performance of the season so far, mostly due to his poor 4-12 shooting effort.  His per-minute productivity for the season has fallen below average with 0.094 EWP48.

The problems for Bosh have been pretty obvious - his shooting percentage and rebounding are below average this season.  Spoelstra said that he has not implemented a lot of the team's offensive playbook, so perhaps the additional sets and plays will get Bosh better scoring opportunities.

As for the rebounding, Bosh is only averaging 1.5 offensive rebounds per 48 minutes.  That's two rebounds less than his career average.  He's averaging three rebounds less per 48 minutes than the average power forward in a Heat game.

I'm not sure if the Heat defensive scheme is keeping Bosh's offensive rebounding numbers low by requiring him to get back on defense instead of crashing the boards, but it could be something to watch if his productivity doesn't improve as the season progresses.

Player (Est. Wins Produced)

1. Dwyane Wade (0.840)

2. Carlos Arroyo (0.744)

3. James Jones (0.741)

4. LeBron James (0.595)

5. Eddie House (0.563)

You can find all of the updated stats for Miami's Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and espn.com.

Miami Heat Take The New Jersey Nets To "Lock Down City" In 101-78 Blowout

LeBron James tweeted "Lock down city!" after the Miami Heat cut down the New Jersey Nets with a 101-78 win at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Sunday afternoon because that's exactly where his team took them for two-and-a-half hours.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's boxscore statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap
The Heat defense held the Nets below the league average offensive rating of 104.2 points per 100 possessions (according to basketball-reference.com) in each quarter.  The New Jersey offense completely melted down by the end of the game with a rating almost 30 points below average in the fourth quarter.

While the New Jersey offense was representing Brick City, the Heat offense was burning up the Nets defense in the first half as the Three Kings began to finally get in sync with one another.  This was the first game Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James were all above average in the first quarter with an Estimated Wins Produced per 48 minutes (EWP48) of 0.949(!) for Wade, 0.324 for Bosh and 0.292 for LeBron.

Typically, it's Bosh that gets off to a good start at the beginning of the game, but against the Nets they all came out firing.  Public Enemies Nos. 1, 3 and 6 scored 24 of Miami's 29 points to begin the game.  The Heat only missed 4 shots in the first quarter.  That efficiency resulted in the Heat posting a 140.5 offensive rating in the quarter - 36 points better than average.

Miami won their last two games by dominating the third quarters, but they put this game away in the first quarter with an efficiency differential (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of 54 points.  The Wins Produced numbers are derived from efficiency differential and the Heat produced 38% of their win over the Nets in the first period.  Miami has only produced 18% of their wins in the first quarter this season, while 44% of the Heat production has come in the third quarter.

For the second game in a row, Dwyane Wade and Carlos Arroyo were the most productive players on the Heat.  Wade produced 27% of Miami's win with 0.642 EWP48, which is just insane.  For comparison's sake, LeBron was the most productive player in the league last season with 0.429 WP48.  Granted, LeBron did that for 2,966 minutes while Wade only did it for 27 minutes - but it was a helluva 27 minutes.

Arroyo topped the 0.400 EWP48 mark for the second consecutive game and was responsible for 18% of the victory.  He shot 5-7 from the floor, rebounded well and had a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio while all of the Nets point guards were below average.

LeBron finally returned to MVP form with 0.413 EWP48 from his 20 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists game in just 29 minutes while Eddie House provided 0.460 EWP48 off the bench with an efficient 11 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists in just 24 minutes.  Wade, Arroyo, LeBron and House produced 80% of the Heat win.

Bosh and Zydrunas Ilgauskas played like stars in the frontcourt as they got their jumpers going and only missed three shots between them.  Both players topped the 0.200 EWP48 mark.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the game's boxscore. You can also view an easier-to-read version at Google Docs by clicking on the spreadsheet labeled @NETS-103110.

The Big Picture
As incredible as the Heat performance was, the most incredible thing about the game to me was the fans' reaction to LeBron.  I've been going to Heat games for the last three years, but I had never seen LeBron play in-person.  What a difference he makes.

In the last three years, I've never seen fans gather around the court just to watch pre-game warmups and snap pictures of the players but that's what they did for LeBron.

I've been to Heat playoff games in Atlanta and Boston and sure, they've been booed, but not every time they touched the ball.  That's what they did for LeBron in New Jersey.  To his credit, he handled it incredibly well. Whenever the boos got too loud, he shut them up with two monster dunks - a two-handed slam from the baseline and a windmill on the fast break that Brook Lopez wanted no parts of.  By the second half, the boos were half-hearted.



Yet, while the boos lessened in the second half, a group of drunk fans decided to begin the heckling with disrespectful chants about Delonte West.  Of course, they were New Jersey fans so they were too stupid to do it while LeBron was shooting free throws and did it while the Nets were shooting free throws instead.

My point is this - I couldn't imagine trying to survive (let alone thrive) in that type of environment, but that's just what LeBron's doing.  He hasn't spit on any fans or kicked a cameraman in the groin.  I don't know whether he'll be able to go the whole season without doing either of those things (I wouldn't), but he's doing amazingly well  so far and deserves to be commended.

And so do the Heat, for that matter.  With the added scrutiny and hatred thrown LeBron's way, the entire team is being baptized by fire.  Hopefully, it forges the team into steel that won't break in the playoffs.

The Bigger Picture
Derrick Favors looked good in this game.  The Heat could not keep him off the glass as he pulled down nine rebounds in the first half and ended the game with a double-double of 13 points and 13 boards.  He was the most productive Nets player by a mile with 0.438 EWP48 and an estimated 0.219 wins produced in 24 minutes.  Avery Johnson started a washed up Joe Smith at power forward instead of Favors and I can't figure out why to save my life.

Kris Humphries and Johan Petro also played well, lending credence to the already-old argument that the Heat will struggle with size upfront.  The only other Nets player whose production didn't dip below zero was Devin Harris.  With seven players in the rotation providing sub-zero production, I can't believe I picked that team to make the playoffs.  They really need Troy Murphy to recover from his back injury.

The bigger picture for the Heat is the backcourt, the defense, LeBron and depth.

After four games, the top producers for Miami are Wade and Arroyo with a combined 1.3 Estimated Wins Produced, accounting for 39% of the Heat's production.  With the Boston game behind him, Wade's productivity has climbed to 0.281 EWP48 and 0.782 Est. Wins Produced.  That's not surprising, that's typical Dwyane Wade (actually, slightly below what he averaged for the last two years).

What is surprising is the production of Arroyo.  Arroyo produced 0.095 WP48 last season (close to average), but this season his production has skyrocketed to 0.280 EWP48.  I think a significant cause of this increase in his production is the Heat defense limiting the production of opposing point guards and thus increasing the margin between their production and Arroyo's.

The average Win Score per 48 minutes (a simplified model of Wins Produced) for a point guard playing in a Heat game is just 2.8.  Last season, the average Win Score for an NBA point guard was 6.6.  This season, Arroyo's Win Score has improved to 7.6, but the average performance of point guards in Heat games has declined by nearly four points.  If the Heat defense can keep opposing point guards in check and Arroyo can continue to play efficient basketball, the point guard spot shouldn't be a problem for Miami this season.

Another good sign after four games is that LeBron's production is rapidly trending upward.  After the Nets game, his productivity for the season was finally above average at 0.102 EWP48.  LeBron has been above average in every part of the boxscore except two - steals and turnovers.  His average of 8.6 turnovers per 48 minutes is holding down his production.

I sat next to the friend of a Nets' shooting coach at the game and he told me that the coach watched LeBron practice the night before the game at the Izod Center.  He said LeBron only worked on two things Saturday night - his three-point shooting and his passing.  Well, he was 0-3 from behind the arc against the Nets and had five turnovers.  Keep practicing LeBron.  At some point, it's got to pay off.

On a brighter note, Erik Spoelstra's rotation is encouraging after four games.  90.3 percent of the minutes played have been allocated to players providing above average production (i.e. EWP48 > 0.100).  Eight players in the nine-man rotation have been above average (Joel Anthony is the lone exception).

You can find all of the updated stats for the Heat Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and espn.com.