Running With the Bulls: Miami Heat May Need More From Erik Spoelstra and Chris Bosh for 72 Wins

Experts weigh in on Heat challenging for wins record: South Florida Sun-Sentinel Staff writer Ira Winderman asked a panel of four NBA experts to compare the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who set an NBA record with a 72-10 regular-season record, and the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who some think can challenge that mark. Winderman asked Sam Smith of Bulls.com, Steve Smith of NBATV, Alvin Gentry of the Phoenix Suns and Jack Ramsay of ESPN to compare the two teams in seven categories - Leading Man, Running Mate, Power Keys, Contributing Wings, Primary Big Men, Supporting Cast and Head Coach. Lets compare the experts' opinions from Winderman's article to what Wins Produced had to say.

Wins Produced was developed by Prof. David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal.  It calculates a player's individual contributions to their team's wins based on box score statistics.  Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) measures those contributions on a per-minute basis.  An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes.  Win Score is a simpler calculation that can be used to estimate wins produced and WP48.
For more information on Wins Produced and Win Score, see the links listed below.

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Leading Man

The first comparison was Michael Jordan for the 1996 Bulls vs. LeBron James for the 2011 Heat. The panel unanimously gave the nod to Michael Jordan. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Michael Jordan (1995-96): 0.386 WP48, 24.9 Wins Produced

LeBron James (2010-11): 0.452 WP48, 27.9 Wins Produced

Michael Jordan's numbers were taken from HERE.

The forecast for LeBron James' numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010.

Wins Produced says that LeBron's expected performance for the 2011 Heat should get the nod over Jordan's performance for the 1996 Bulls. While I understand that most reporters and analysts consider Michael Jordan to be the best player in NBA history, I didn't understand the panel's reasons for picking a 32 year-old Jordan over a 25 year-old LeBron. If the comparison was between a 25 year-old Jordan and 25 year-old LeBron, then it wouldn't be close. Jordan produced an estimated 34.1 wins with a 0.502 WP48 when he was 25. Here are some of the panel's justifications for choosing Jordan at age 32 over LeBron at age 25:

Sam Smith: LeBron demonstrated by his choice that he's not a leading man. Michael is a leading man, a guy who is going to carry a team.

This is more of the same garbage that haters have been throwing around all summer - "an alpha dog/male would never choose to join forces with another alpha dog/male." That argument is garbage for many reasons but lets start with the fact that human beings aren't animals (despite repeated attempts to describe black people that way) and lets end with Doc Rivers' de-bunking the myth that legends from the 80's and 90's wouldn't have done the same thing as LeBron.

Steve Smith: "Michael was just at a different place at that time. He was older, more experienced, more primed to win a championship."

How was Jordan "more primed to win a championship" at 32 years-old than LeBron at age 25? Jordan had already won three titles! Lets say I concede that Jordan entered the '96 season with a larger chip on his shoulder than usual because the '95 season ended with a loss to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, he blamed himself for the loss because he was rusty from taking two years off to play baseball and he vowed to redeem himself and take revenge on the entire league. Doesn't LeBron have a larger chip on his shoulder after being ridiculed and hated on all summer by everyone from fans to hall-of-famers and getting beatdown in the playoffs for a second straight season despite having the best record in the league? And that doesn't even take into consideration that he hasn't won a title and is starving for one - it's the primary reason he signed with the Heat! Watch him at media day and tell me he doesn't seem "primed to win a championship."

Jack Ramsay: "Michael. He's the better all-around player."

Because I've lived through this era of Jordan-worship, I was predisposed to believe Ramsay's point until I saw that LeBron was the more productive player. The figure below compares Jordan's box score statistics from 1996 to LeBron's from 2010.

STATISTIC - MJ (Avg. per 48 mins) / LBJ (Avg. per 48 mins)

Points per shot - Jordan (1.05) / LeBron (1.09)

Adj. shooting % - Jordan (52.4%) / LeBron (54.5 %)

Free throw % - Jordan (83.4%) / LeBron (76.7%)

Shot attempts - Jordan (28.8) / LeBron (24.7)

FT attempts - Jordan (10.2) / LeBron (12.6)

Points scored - Jordan (38.7) / LeBron (36.6)

Rebounds - Jordan (8.4) / LeBron (9.0)

Steals - Jordan (2.8) / LeBron (2.0)

Turnovers - Jordan (3.1) / LeBron (4.2)

Net Possessions - Jordan (8.1) / LeBron (6.8)

Blocked shots - Jordan (0.6) / LeBron (1.2)

Assists - Jordan (5.5) / LeBron (10.6)

Personal fouls - Jordan (3.1) / LeBron (2.0)

Points per shot (PPS) = (PTS-FTM)/FTA; Adj. shooting % = PPS/2; Net possessions = (REBS+STL-TO). Original data taken from basketball-reference.com.

Wow... it's pretty close. The King is a more efficient shooter but His Airness was a better volume scorer. LeBron is a better rebounder but '96 Jordan was better at acquiring and protecting possessions for his team. Finally, LeBron is better at shot-blocking, passing and avoiding fouls than Jordan was on that record-setting Bulls team. So Dr. Jack was wrong - at 32 years-old, Jordan was not a better all-around player than a 25 year-old LeBron.

What Wins Produced Says: 2011 LeBron is a better leading man than '96 Jordan.

Running Mate

The second comparison was '96 Scottie Pippen vs. 2011 Dwyane Wade. The panel was split 2-2. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Scottie Pippen (1995-96): 0.269 WP48, 15.8 Wins Produced

Dwyane Wade (2010-11): 0.248 WP48, 14.4 Wins Produced

Scottie Pippen's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

The forecast for Dwyane Wade's numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010.

Wins Produced agrees that it's a close contest between Pippen and Wade but Scottie was more productive in '96 than Wade is projected to be in 2011. Wade's projection is based on research of player performance declining with age from Stumbling on Wins but it is a projection, which means it's not a guarantee. Personally, I believe that Wade's performance will be closer to his 2009-levels since Pat Riley believes he might be in the same condition he was in after the 2008 Olympics when he produced 21.0 wins with 0.331 WP48 (see the Wages of Wins Journal). Winderman also reported that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said Wade may be in his best shape ever.

What Wins Produced Says: '96 Pippen was a better running mate than Wade will be in 2011.

Power Keys

The third comparison was of each team's power forwards. The panel chose the '96 Bulls power forwards (Dennis Rodman and Toni Kukoc) 3-1 over the Heat power forwards (Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem). Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Dennis Rodman (1995-96): 0.415 WP48, 18.1 Wins Produced

Toni Kukoc (1995-96): 0.193 WP48, 8.5 Wins Produced

Chris Bosh (2010-11): 0.232 WP48, 12.2 Wins Produced

Udonis Haslem (2009-10): 0.160 WP48, 7.3 Wins Produced

Rodman and Kukoc's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

The forecast for Chris Bosh's numbers was taken from HERE and was calculated using his minutes played from 2010. Haslem's numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

The '96 Bulls had the better power forwards. In 4,191 minutes, Rodman and Kukoc combined to produce 26.6 wins with 0.305 WP48 while Bosh and Haslem only combined to produce 19.5 wins in 4,703 minutes with 0.199 WP48. The only member of the panel to pick the Heat power forwards was Ramsay. Here's his explanation:

Jack Ramsay: "I think Bosh is the better all-around of that group. Rodman, of course, was a great defender and rebounder. I like Bosh very much. He's a very skilled player."

The last time Ramsay said someone was a better all-around player he was wrong. Lets see if Wins Produced thinks he's more accurate this time.

STATISTIC - Rodman (Avg. per 48 mins) / Bosh (Avg. per 48 mins)

Points per shot - Rodman (0.96) / Bosh (1.05)

Adj. shooting % - Rodman (47.9%) / Bosh (52.4%)

Free throw % - Rodman (52.8%) / Bosh (79.7%)

Shot attempts - Rodman (7.1) / Bosh (21.9)

FT attempts - Rodman (2.5) / Bosh (11.2)

Points scored - Rodman (8.1) / Bosh (31.9)

Rebounds - Rodman (21.9) / Bosh (14.4)

Steals - Rodman (0.9) / Bosh (0.8)

Turnovers - Rodman (3.2) / Bosh (3.2)

Net possessions - Rodman (19.6) / Bosh (12.0)

Blocked shots - Rodman (0.6) / Bosh (1.3)

Assists - Rodman (3.7) / Bosh (3.2)

Personal Fouls - Rodman (4.6) / Bosh (3.2)

Points per shot (PPS) = (PTS-FTM)/FTA; Adj. shooting % = PPS/2; Net possessions = (REBS+STL-TO). Original data taken from basketball-reference.com.

Looks like Ramsay was right on this one. Bosh is indeed the better all-around player, surpassing Rodman in 9 statistical categories. He's better at shooting efficiency and volume, getting to the foul line, blocking shots and staying out of foul trouble. However, Rodman was so much better acquiring possession of the ball that he was much more productive than Bosh overall.

What Wins Produced Says: Rodman and Kukoc were better power forwards for the '96 Bulls than Bosh and Haslem will be for the Heat in 2011.

Contributing Wings

The fourth comparison was between the top two perimeter players for each team - Ron Harper and Steve Kerr for the '96 Bulls vs. Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers for the 2011 Heat. The panel unanimously chose Harper and Kerr over Miller and Chalmers. Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Ron Harper (1995-96): 0.143 WP48, 5.6 Wins Produced

Steve Kerr (1995-96): 0.129 WP48, 5.2 Wins Produced

Mike Miller (2009-10): 0.230 WP48, 8.7 Wins Produced

Mario Chalmers (2009-10): 0.035 WP48, 1.3 Wins Produced

Harper and Kerr's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Miller and Chalmers' numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

This one is close. In 3,805 minutes, Harper and Kerr combined to produce 10.8 wins with 0.136 WP48. In 3,612 minutes, Miller and Chalmers combined to produce 10.0 wins with 0.133 WP48. The Harper/Kerr combo for the '96 Bulls was more productive by a very slim margin.  The panel did give the Miller/Chalmers combo some credit but the key comment comes from Ramsay:

Jack Ramsay: "None of those other guys can shoot like Kerr. Miller, I think, is a little better than average all-around. Chalmers has yet to be defined."


Ramsay is right on two fronts - Miller is the best all-around player of the four and Chalmers has yet to be defined.  In his rookie season, Chalmers was much more productive with 0.099 WP48 and 5.4 wins produced.  If Chalmers and Coach Spoelstra can figure out a way for him to return to that level of productivity, then the Heat would have the advantage over the Harper/Kerr combo.  Until that happens, the '96 Bulls get the nod.
What Wins Produced Says: Harper and Kerr were better contributing wings for the '96 Bulls than Miller and Chalmers are expected to be for the 2011 Heat.


Primary Big Men
The fifth comparison was between the big men for each team - Luc Longley and Bill Wennington for the '96 Bulls vs. Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas for the 2011 Heat.  The panel was split on this one 1-1-2 (two panelists thought they were even).  Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED
Luc Longley (1995-96): -0.016 WP48, -0.5 Wins Produced
Bill Wennington (1995-96): -0.078 WP48, -1.7 Wins Produced
Joel Anthony (2009-10): -0.017 WP48, -0.5 Wins Produced
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (2009-10): -0.040 WP48, -1.1 Wins Produced

Longley and Wennington's numbers were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Anthony and Ilgauskas' numbers were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

In a race to the bottom, the Anthony/Ilgauskas combo should be expected to have less of a negative impact than the Longley/Wennington combo had on the '96 Bulls.  Many pundits have cited the mediocre centers on the Heat roster as the roadblock that will prevent them from winning 70+ games and the NBA title but the Bulls were able to do it with even less productive players in the middle.  Here's what the authors of The Wages of Wins had to say about the '96 Bulls on pages 151-152:

"The best team in NBA history did not have a center whose wins production exceeded zero... the productivity we observe from Chicago's centers leads us to conclude that the best team in the history of the NBA had little in the middle.  In essence, the best team was a doughnut."

Yes, the Heat should expect nothing in the middle from Anthony or Ilgauskas but they can play Bosh at center and Haslem at power forward, so the lack of a dominant big man is not a reason to diminish their chances of winning more than 72 games.  Another interesting point is that the '96 Bulls had five centers on the roster (the other three were John Salley, Jack Haley and James Edwards) and the Heat also went into training camp with five big men on the roster (the other three are Jamaal Magloire, Juwan Howard and Dexter Pittman).  Maybe Jerry Krause and Pat Riley knew they had deficiencies in the middle and tried to compensate for it with quantity instead of quality.

What Wins Produced Says: Anthony and Ilgauskas should be better big men for the 2011 Heat than Longley and Wennington were for the '96 Bulls.

Supporting Cast

The sixth comparison was between the supporting casts for each team - Jud Buechler, Randy Brown, Dickey Simpkins, James Edwards and Jason Caffey for the '96 Bulls vs. Eddie House, Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire and Carlos Arroyo for the 2011 Heat. The panel voted 3-1 for the Heat.  Here's what Wins Produced has to say:

PLAYER (SEASON): WP48, WINS PRODUCED

Jud Buechler (1995-96): 0.143 WP48, 2.2 Wins Produced

Randy Brown (1995-96): 0.010 WP48, 0.1 Wins Produced

Dickey Simpkins (1995-96): 0.007 WP48, 0.1 Wins Produced

James Edwards (1995-96): -0.393 WP48, -2.2 Wins Produced

Jason Caffey (1995-96): -0.136 WP48, -1.5 Wins Produced

Eddie House (2009-10): -0.009 WP48, -0.2 Wins Produced

Juwan Howard (2009-10): -0.002 WP48, -0.1 Wins Produced

Jamaal Magloire (2009-10): 0.068 WP48, 0.5 Wins Produced

Carlos Arroyo (2009-10): 0.095 WP48, 3.1 Wins Produced

Numbers for the '96 Bulls were taken from The Wages of Wins.

Numbers for Heat players were taken from the Wins Produced Viewer.

Jud Buechler is the most productive player in that list but the '96 Bulls also had the two worst players - James Edwards and Jason Caffey.  Since the Heat supporting cast played more minutes last season for various teams, they were able to produce more wins so WP48 is a better tool for comparison.  The average WP48 for the '96 Bulls supporting cast is -0.021.  The average WP48 for the Heat players was 0.033 last season.

What Wins Produced Says: 2011 Heat supporting cast should be better than the supporting cast for the '96 Bulls.

Head Coach

The final comparison was between the head coaches - Phil Jackson for the '96 Bulls vs. Erik Spoelstra for the 2011 Heat.  The panel unanimously voted for Jackson.  In Stumbling on Wins (the sequel to The Wages of Wins), the authors report that players "tend to get better when they come to Phil Jackson," (based on the results from a 2009 study of 62 NBA coaches from 1978 to 2008) and Prof. Berri told Toronto Star columnist Dave Feschuk that "players don't get worse after they leave Jackson".  The study suggested that Jackson is worth an additional 17 wins in his first year with a team - more than any other coach.  Spoelstra was not included in the study since he didn't become a head coach until the 2009 season.  Despite a 28-win improvement when he took over the team in 2009 and a four-win improvement in 2010, 11 of the 20 players coached by Spoelstra had a higher Win Score when they played for other coaches.

What Wins Produced Says: Jackson was likely a better head coach in '96 than Spoelstra will be in 2011

Summary

After seven comparisons, here's the rundown:

Leading Man - 2011 Heat

Running Mate - '96 Bulls

Power Keys - '96 Bulls

Contributing Wings - '96 Bulls

Primary Big Men - 2011 Heat

Supporting Cast - 2011 Heat

Head Coach - '96 Bulls

The '96 Bulls were better than the Heat in four of the seven categories, but if Wade doesn't decline as Berri projected and Chalmers can produce like he did during his rookie season, then the Heat would surpass the '96 Bulls in every category except Power Keys and Coaching.  Do the Heat need to match the '96 Bulls in all seven categories to win more than 72 games in 2011?  I don't know.  Another Wages of Wins Journalist, Arturo Galletti, only projected the Heat to win 68 games in his last revision.  Only time will tell if the Heat need better coaching from Spoelstra or more productivity from Bosh and Haslem to get an extra five wins and break the '96 Bulls' 72-win record.

Like Father, Like Son? Heat Sign Anthony Mason Jr.

HEAT Sign Anthony Mason Jr. & Mickell Gladness

The Heat announced that Anthony Mason, Jr. and Mickell Gladness were the last two players signed for training camp. My first post on this blog, The Bottom Three, reported the productivity of the Heat Summer League team and whether the best players were chosen for the bottom three spots on the roster. Anthony Mason, Jr. and Mickell Gladness were invited to participate in Vegas but Mason Jr. didn't play a single minute for the Heat in summer league so I can't directly compare him to the bottom three of Shavlik Randolph, Kenny Hasbrouck and Dexter Pittman based on productivity against entry-level NBA competition but I can do that for Gladness.  Gladness was one of the least productive players for the Heat in summer league.  He produced an estimated -0.048 wins in 29 minutes.  Patrick Beverley and Dexter Pittman were the only two players in Vegas that were less productive for the Heat, but since they were signed to contracts and invited to training camp I guess Gladness warranted an invitation, too.  However, I don't expect him to be a serious threat to make the team based on the premise that the first to sign shall be the last ones cut and the last ones signed will be the first ones cut.

For Anthony Mason, Jr. I'll use his college numbers to evaluate whether he should make the team over the bottom three. Mason's college productivity will be measured by Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) using the same method as the Wages of Wins Journal.

As a 6'7", 209 lb. forward, Mason produced a 7.4 WS40 last season at St. John's University (see the SR/College Basketball site for his stats). An average NCAA small forward produced a 9.95 WS40 last season. That leaves Mason with a position-adjusted WS40 (PAWS40) of 7.6. From 1995-2009, the average PAWS40 for a player selected out of college was just about 10.0. That means Anthony Mason, Jr. is a below average college prospect for the NBA (which explains why he wasn't drafted). Here's how Mason compares to the other players drafted by the Heat this year:

PLAYER - PAWS40

Dexter Pittman - 11.3

Da'Sean Butler - 8.3

Anthony Mason, Jr. - 7.6

Maybe Mason will challenge for Butler's spot (if he even has one) while he recovers from blowing his knee out in the Final Four, but the numbers don't seem to indicate he should pose much of a threat to Pittman when it comes to making the Heat roster. At this point, it's time for a PAWS40 disclaimer from the Wages of Wins Journal:

"[I]t must be emphasized (as has been noted in prior discussions of the draft), PAWS40 is correlated with future performance in the NBA. But it is not a crystal ball. So just because a player is above average, that does not mean he will be an above average NBA player. And below average players with respect to PAWS40 might become above average NBA players."

So there's a chance that Mason could exceed expectations in training camp and draining jumpers over LeBron James is a good start but it's more likely that he'll be cut before October 26th. Or perhaps Mason Jr. will start to play more like his father. Anthony Mason, Sr. produced an 11.6 Win Score his senior year at Tennessee State in 1988 and produced an 11.7 Win Score in 2001 with the Miami Heat, which translates to an estimated wins produced per 48 minutes of 0.146 (average EWP48 is 0.100). Anthony Mason, Sr. was an above average player for Miami, but if his son was going to follow in his footsteps I think he would have been more productive last season at St. John's. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the D-League like the son of another famous Knickerbocker.

ESPN - Where Biting Happens

For Heat, an L.A. story - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN

Thanks to Devin Dignam of the NBeh? blog for alerting me to the fact that ESPN is biting my style (see link above). We'll see which blog is more interesting this season. I accept the challenge.

Who Is The Greatest Forward In Miami Heat History? Not LeBron James. Not Yet.

The Greatest Heat Team of All Time - ESPN

ESPN.com has a great app (click the link above) that allows fans to pick the best players of all-time for your favorite team so I decided to take some time to identify the most productive Heat players from the ESPN.com app using player data from basketball-reference.com to estimate the Wins Produced by each player.

B.I.W.: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade? | Bleacher Report

With the 2010 FIBA World Championships concluded, I've posted an update to the LeBron vs. Durant post from August on Bleacher Report. Check it out and leave a comment.

Best In The World: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade? | Bleacher Report

Arachnophobia: Why The Heat Should Fear The Durantula

I just posted a new Bleacher Report article on Team USA summarizing their performance in the preliminary round of the 201 FIBA World Championships. Durant's performance after 5 games surpassed LeBron's performance in the 2008 Olympics. Check it out:

Arachnophobia: Why FIBA Should Fear The Durantula At The World Championships | World Domination: Kevin Durant Is Leading Team USA to The World Championship | Bleacher Report

To see updated 2010 Team USA stats for Durant, check out this spreadsheet.

To see 2008 Team USA stats for LeBron, check out this spreadsheet.

Leave a comment on who you think will be the better small forward this NBA season.

Kevin Durant & Team USA: A Less Dominant Road To Redemption | Bleacher Report

I've posted an article on Bleacher Report that evaluates Team USA using Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced before the World Championships start this Saturday. Check it out and leave a comment here or at Bleacher Report.

Kevin Durant & Team USA: A Less Dominant Road To Redemption | Bleacher Report

LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: Public Enemies & Public Opinion in the Global Arena

After Kevin Durant led Team USA to an 86-85 win over Spain, Henry Abbott of TrueHoop suggested he could be a more traditional superstar for fans to embrace if they have “soured on the new breed powerbroker LeBron James”. Fans and writers can argue all day about the differences in how LeBron and Durant handled their contract extensions but I’m more interested in how they compare on the court. Has Durant’s summer with Team USA lived up to the hype so far? Has his play against international competition in 2010 been comparable to LeBron’s run in 2008? Hell no! Despite Durant’s advantages in public opinion, he can’t see LeBron or his Public Enemies when it comes to production against international competition. Follow me as I break it down using the statistical model for Win Score and estimated Wins Produced (EWP) developed by Prof. David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal. All of the stats in this post came from boxscore analysis of Team USA in 2008 and 2010.

Team USA Leaves Spain Thunderstruck
Durant was hailed for his performance against Spain last Sunday and I can’t knock his hustle in that game.  Besides the two blocks that saved the game, he was also the most productive player on the floor with an estimated wins produced of .529 in 36.6 minutes. Durant’s estimated wins produced per 40 minutes (EWP40) was .578 against Spain – more than 5 times better than the average player would be expected to produce in the game (average EWP40 is .100). While Durant was great, Russell Westbrook’s performance got lost in the hype. Westbrook was the most productive player for Team USA on a per-minute basis with an EWP40 of .658 against Spain. With such a high rate of productivity, Westbrook was able to be the second-most productive player for Team USA with .214 EWP in just 13 minutes of playing time. In fact, the Oklahoma City Thunder teammates were the only above average players for Team USA in the game. Figure 1 illustrates the EWP40 and EWP for both teams.

Figure 1 - Team USA vs. Spain, 8/22/10
[click figure to enlarge]

Global Warming: Heat Beats Thunder
Kevin Durant did his thing against Spain but was his performance worthy of comparison to LeBron? As Figure 2 illustrates, the answer is, “Hell, yeah.”

Figure 2 - Comparison of Durant & LBJ vs. Spain
[click figure to enlarge]

Against Spain, Durant was more than worthy of a LeBron comparison. When I said he couldn’t “see LeBron’s production” maybe it’s because he can’t see behind him. Durant outplayed LeBron in the areas of scoring, rebounding, turnovers, shot-blocking and fouls which resulted in a higher level of overall productivity but the margin is not as large as the table makes it seem. The position adjustment for LeBron is double the adjustment for Durant because the average forward in the 2008 games against Spain was more productive than the average forward in the 2010 game. For example, Rudy Fernandez played guard in 2008, but Durant was able to exploit a matchup with him at forward in 2010. Carmelo Anthony and Tayshaun Prince also played better than Andre Iguodala and Rudy Gay, which raised the average productivity at forward. If LeBron played with, and against, the same talent as Durant, then his EWP40 would increase from .217 to .491 which brings him a lot closer to Durant’s .578 EWP40. But this is where LeBron’s South Beach advantage comes into play. While his productivity trails Durant, Public Enemy No. 3 surpasses it by nearly the same margin. Durant was better at free-throw shooting, rebounding, turnovers and shot-blocking but still trailed Wade’s .649 EWP40 because he couldn’t match the efficiency and volume of his scoring. Basically, Dwyane Wade is like the Wu-Tang Clan - he ain’t nothing to fuck wit’.

So Durant's play against Spain was more than comparable to LeBron’s but does it continue to measure up if other common opponents are considered? There were four common opponents between the 2008 Olympic schedule and the 2010 exhibition schedule – China, Lithuania, Spain and Greece. The differences between the common opponents’ 2008 and 2010 rosters are as follows:

• China – Five players on 2010 roster played 50% of available minutes against Team USA in 2008 and 60% of available minutes against Team USA in 2010
• Lithuania – Five players on 2010 roster played 40% of available minutes against Team USA in 2008 and 2010
• Spain – Eight players on 2010 roster played 71% of available minutes against Team USA in 2008 and 83% of available minutes against Team USA in 2010
• Greece – Six players on 2010 roster played 61% of available minutes against Team USA in 2008 and 69% of available minutes against Team USA in 2010

Despite roster changes, both versions of Team USA played significant chunks of time against the same players on China, Lithuania, Spain and Greece. Figure 3 compares Durant’s productivity versus those teams to the Public Enemies’ productivity in 2008.

Figure 3 - Durant & LBJ vs. Common Opponents
[click figure to enlarge]

When the analysis is expanded to common opponents, things get complicated. On the surface, Durant’s performance appears to be comparable to Lebron’s against common opponents. Durant still scored more points than LeBron but was much less efficient with an adjusted shooting percentage 20 points lower than The King. Durant also maintained a significant advantage in turnovers and on the boards, but once again the position adjustment comes into play. If Durant faced the same competition as LeBron, then his EWP40 would drop from .350 to .197. As for the rest of the Public Enemies, forget about it. Wade and Bosh posted insane shooting percentages and an EWP40 that was more than .400 and .200 points higher than Durant.

If the public opinion follows TrueHoop’s suggestion of Durant, then the public won’t be getting a “traditional” superstar, according to Wins Produced. Typically, a superstar would be considered a player with an EWP40 greater than .300. Durant is on the threshold of superstardom with a .285 EWP40 and led Team USA with 1.3 Est. Wins Produced (EWP) after seven scrimmages and exhibition games this summer. But once again, his per-minute productivity was surpassed by his Thunder teammate. Russell Westbrook is the only player on the Team USA roster with more than 100 minutes that has actually produced like a superstar with .320 EWP40 and 1.0 EWP (honorable mentions go to Eric Gordon with .299 EWP40 and .8 EWP in 100.8 minutes and Kevin Love with .671 EWP40 and .9 EWP in just 55.3 minutes).  As Team USA begins the quest for its first gold medal in the World Championships in 16 years, Durant could simultaneously stand at the threshold of greatness and in the shadow of the international thrones for the Three Kings in Miami. In 13 games (from the first exhibition to the gold medal), the Public Enemies produced as follows:

• LeBron James - .372 EWP40 and 2.8 Est. Wins Produced
• Dwyane Wade - .653 EWP40 and 4.1 Est. Wins Produced
• Chris Bosh - .494 EWP40 and 2.5 Est. Wins Produced

So the public can hate on the Heat all it wants, but they’re only cheating themselves. And if the Heat and Thunder meet next summer (like some bloggers hope), then it could be a matchup between the five best players from USA Basketball in the last two years but the Public Enemies will probably transfer their dominance abroad into infamy at home and the public will have to find a new fan favorite next summer. So get down or lay down – the Heat is coming.

Eddie House and the Dress Coders

Here’s the good, the bad and the ugly that Wins Produced has to say about Eddie House, the latest journeyman to sign with the Miami Heat.

The Good
House’s scoring is probably what made him a fan favorite in Miami ten years ago but his overall production didn’t justify it. House’s negative production was an estimated 8.4 wins below average during his first stint with the team, but he returns to Miami an improved player after his most recent stops in Boston and New York. Table 1 illustrates the improvement in House’s production from then to now.

[Click table to enlarge]

Note - Average PG/SG data for 2001-03 from wagesofwins.com; Eddie House data from basketball-reference.com; Average PG/SG data for 2010 from espn.com except for points per shot and shooting percentages, which are from nba.com



House returns to Miami with a minimum salary as a much better shooter, rebounder and ball handler than when he left. He also returns wearing a championship ring with purple-and-gold blood on his hands thanks to his play against the Lakers in the 2008 Finals. With an estimated wp48 of .230, House was more productive than every Lakers guard in that series – including Kobe Bryant. If the Heat face the Lakers in the 2011 Finals, then Miami could use that type of performance again.

The Bad
While House returns to Miami as an improved player with a championship ring, he also returns as a player coming off a major decline in production last year. Table 2 illustrates the decline in his numbers from 2009 to 2010.

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House’s shooting efficiency, scoring, rebounding and steals all declined from 2009 to 2010, resulting in his least productive season since leaving Miami in 2003. Part of the drop in production could be explained by House being traded mid-season to the New York Knicks, where he shot the ball terribly without the open looks provided by Boston’s Big Three and Rajon Rondo. However, his WP48 with the Celtics before the trade was .024 which is still well below average. A possible explanation for his drop-off with the Celtics could be that he played over 529 minutes with at least two of the Big Four (Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Rondo) in 2009 but only played over 269 minutes with two of the Big Four in 2010. Perhaps the lineups Doc Rivers used him in affected the number of open looks House got, which could explain the decreased shooting efficiency. Beyond the impact of being traded to the Knicks or changes in the way he was used in Boston, the only other primary factors remaining are injury and age. House did miss four games with a sore achilles tendon but no other serious injuries were reported for him last season. He is 32 years old, though, and sports economist David Berri has noted at the Wages of Wins Journal that player performance starts to decline more noticeably after 30. So even if the Heat can put House in the right situations on the floor, he may not be able to match his performance from the last three seasons.

The Ugly
With signing of Eddie House, Heat faces game-night questions – Miami Heat – Sun-Sentinel
In the blog post linked above, Ira Winderman of the Miami Sun-Sentinel argues that the signing of House will push a veteran player out of a jersey and into compliance with the NBA dress code on most nights this upcoming season because league rules only allow a team to designate 12 active players and the Heat currently have 16 players signed to contracts, 14 of which are guaranteed. So which of the players currently under contract should be sitting on the bench wearing a collared shirt, jacket and dress shoes next season? Table 3 ranks the players currently signed with the Heat based on the type of contract they have for the 2011 season and their production from the 2010 season.

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Based on type of contract and wins produced, it looks like Juwan Howard would be best-suited to form a new Bottom Three with the Heat’s summer leaguers now that Eddie House has signed with the team. There isn’t much difference between Howard and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but I don’t think LeBron convinced “Big Z” to sign with Miami as a model for the latest in big-and-tall fashions on game night. Of course, Wins Produced is a nice way to determine who should be suited-and-booted this upcoming season but scoring typically drives most player decisions in the NBA. Table 4 ranks the players currently signed with the Heat based on the type of contract they have for the upcoming season and their scoring average from last season.

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If Coach Spoelstra focuses on scoring, then Jamaal Magloire will most likely be joining the “dress coders” on most nights. Or maybe the "dress coders" will just be selected based on fashion. If that's the case, then Howard should be the favorite, but as long as Magloire doesn’t go with the wife-beater look, things shouldn’t get too ugly on the bench.