Heat Produced Page Updated - 11/30/10

The Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from the last three games against the 76ers, Mavericks and Wizards.

The Great Dwyane Wade Slump of 2010 appears to be officially over. He's moved back into second place on the team in estimated wins produced and had a dominant game against the Wizards with an estimated 0.528 wins produced!

New post coming tomorrow to recap the last three games and review Ira Winderman and John Hollinger's takes on what's wrong with the Heat.

Miami Heat Check: It Was All Good Just A Week Ago, Pt. 2

A week ago, the Miami Heat were just one game behind the Boston Celtics for best record in the Eastern Conference at 8-4 and on a three-game winning streak after defeating the Charlotte Bobcats. 

Seven days later, things have taken a terrible turn with a three-game losing streak and two of the Heat's top four players, Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem, going down with injuries. The last week has resulted in two burning questions - why are the Heat struggling and what should be done about it?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The UD Effect
A big problem of course, was the injury to Udonis Haslem. Haslem was the team's leading rebounder with an average of 14.8 rebounds per 48 minutes and was also an above average power forward with 0.124 EWP48. The only other power forward on the roster, Juwan Howard, has been terribly below average in the few minutes he's played with -0.165 EWP48.


With an average EWP48 of 0.150 before Haslem got hurt, the Heat were playing like a 62-win team. Without Haslem's 0.124 EWP48 for 26.5 minutes each game, the Heat's average EWP48 should be expected to decline to 0.134, which would only result in 55 wins over the course of a season.


The Heat have tried to prevent a decline from the UD effect by signing Erick Dampier. Will it work? I've already covered it in this article.


Unfortunately, the UD effect doesn't explain everything that's wrong with the Heat. Miami's average EWP48 since Haslem tore the Lisfranc ligament in his foot is just 0.046 and it was just 0.089 in the seven quarters before the injury.

To identify the other reasons why the Heat are struggling, let's take a look at the games they've played in the last seven days.

Heat 95, Bobcats 87
This game was changed in the third quarter. It was the second least productive quarter the Heat have played this season (only the fourth quarter in Philadelphia was less productive). The Bobcats produced an estimated 0.656 more wins than the Heat in that third quarter, but it wasn't enough to overcome the first half when Miami produced an estimated 0.723 more wins than Charlotte.

The Heat were lucky that the Bobcats are a bad team right now. The Bobcats played tenacious defense in the second half, but 87 percent of their production came from reserves that only played 33 percent of the minutes. That means Charlotte's starters only provided 13 percent of the team's production with 67 percent of the available minutes.

The Heat were also lucky that the worst starter, Boris Diaw (-0.187 EWP48), played almost half of the minutes available at center while another 24 percent were played by one of the worst reserves, Tyrus Thomas (0.038 EWP48 at center). That putrid combination resulted in the best Zydrunas Ilgauskas game of the season with 0.715 EWP48 and a very productive game from Chris Bosh with 0.447 EWP48 in 20.3 minutes at center.

The Heat needed all of those lucky breaks on a night when Wade, their most productive player, was struggling with flu-like symptoms and a sprained wrist.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Bobcats. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled BOBCATS-111910).

Grizzlies 97, Heat 95
The lucky breaks Miami got against Charlotte ran out in Memphis. Wade's sprained wrist forced him to sit out and Haslem's season likely ended with the foot injury in the third quarter.

Jerry Stackhouse got to start in Wade's absence and did nothing with it by producing an estimated -0.002 wins in 19.5 minutes. It's no wonder he was released by the Heat three days later in order to sign Dampier.

The remainder of the minutes at shooting guard were split between Eddie House and James Jones. House took full advantage and was the most productive player for Miami with 0.638 EWP48 in 24 minutes at shooting guard while Jones stunk it up with -0.327 EWP48.

Haslem was the least productive player for the Heat with -0.382 EWP48. With such a low level of productivity, would Haslem have really prevented Zach Randolph from going nuts with 13 points and nine rebounds in the fourth quarter?

Haslem and Randolph both started the second quarter at power forward and were terrible. Haslem produced -0.733 EWP48 for 5.8 minutes compared to Randolph's -0.455 EWP48 produced in 8.4 minutes (he was matched up with Bosh for the last 2.6 minutes).

In the third quarter, Haslem entered the game at the 6:38 mark and was actually more productive than Randolph who entered at the 6:48 mark. UD

Without UD in the fourth quarter, Z-Bo went off with 1.092 EWP48 (that's ten times better than the average player)! I'm not sure Haslem could have stopped Randolph in the fourth quarter, but I do know his absence didn't help. Randolph's big fourth quarter was enough to hold off the Heat long enough for Rudy Gay to put them away with a last second fall-away jumper over LeBron.

The problem for the Heat was the hole they dug for themselves in the first quarter when the Grizzlies outplayed them by producing an estimated 0.505 more wins. Miami outplayed Memphis in the other three quarters but it was only by an estimated margin of 0.419 wins produced.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Grizzlies. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @GRIZZLIES-112010).

Pacers 93, Heat 77

Obviously, this was the worst loss of the season. It was also the weirdest and most disappointing because of where this game was lost.

For all of the talk about the Heat big men being too small, soft, slow or old, they were all very productive against the Pacers young, athletic big men and collectively outplayed them. Bosh, Big Z, Howard and Jamaal Magloire combined to produce an estimated 0.692 wins in 92 minutes of playing time (0.361 EWP48). With the Heat's perimeter players, that should be enough to win any game.

Despite 0.692 wins produced by the frontline, the Heat only produced 0.198 wins for the entire game. LeBron, Wade, House and Jones combined to produce an estimated -0.648 wins in 122.9 minutes (-0.253 EWP48).

Carlos Arroyo was the only above average perimeter player. He produced 0.294 EWP48 to outplay an injured Darren Collison with only -0.284 EWP48 (he was the least productive player for the Pacers).

Unfortunately, when Arroyo and Collison were replaced by House and T.J. Ford, respectively, the advantage swung to the Pacers. Ford destroyed House (0.491 EWP48 to -0.395 EWP48) and the story kept repeating itself around the perimeter throughout the game.

Brandon Rush destroyed Wade (0.355 EWP48 to -0.494 EWP48).
Danny Granger destroyed LeBron (0.337 EWP48 to 0.074 EWP48).
Mike Dunleavy destroyed James Jones (0.381 EWP48 to -0.314 EWP48).

The Heat big men (0.692 EWP) outplayed the Pacers big men (-0.033 EWP), but the Heat perimeter players (-0.494 EWP) were outplayed by the Pacers perimeter players (0.835 EWP).

That's the game, ladies and gentlemen.

This game illustrates some of the exaggerations surrounding the Heat's weaknesses at point guard, power forward and center. The Heat front line is very productive against most big men (they struggle with above average front lines) and the starting point guard is adequate (but he does struggle against elite point guards).

The Pacers beat the Heat the same way the Celtics did - with their perimeter players. Boston's perimeter players averaged 0.7 EWP in their two wins over Miami.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Pacers. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled PACERS-112210).

Magic 104, Heat 95

Ah, the holidays. I couldn't really concentrate watching this game because my annoying brother kept smacking on buffalo wings and talking trash in my ear, so let's talk about what the box score told me.

The first thing the box score told me was that Arroyo outplayed Jameer Nelson. This jumped out because it was in direct contrast to what game recaps from the Hot Hot Hoops and Peninsula Is Mightier blogs told me.

Nelson may have gotten off to a good start in the first quarter with seven assists, but he was essentially average overall with just 0.117 EWP48 in the game's first 12 minutes. In the fourth quarter, he was unstoppable with 0.703 EWP48 before he was ejected.

If the game was only played in the first and fourth quarters, then Nelson definitely would have been the story of the game. But in between the first and fourth quarters the second and third quarters were played and Nelson was terrible with -0.465 EWP48 during that stretch of the game.

In the first and fourth quarters, Nelson shot 6-11 from the floor for 15 points and dished out eight assists with just one turnover. In the second and third quarters, he shot 1-4 from the floor for two points and dished out six assists with four turnovers. Nelson produced 0.041 EWP48 for the game.

Arroyo's stats were more understated but he ended the game with no turnovers or personal fouls and shot efficiently from the floor to produce 0.490 EWP48 for the game. The figure below illustrates the comparison of Arroyo and Nelson's performances in Orlando.

As you can see, Nelson was below average in getting to the line, free throw shooting, rebounds, turnovers, blocks and fouls. Arroyo, on the other hand, was only below average at getting his shot, getting to the line, steals, blocks and assists. Arroyo was also better than Nelson at shooting efficiency, rebounds, turnovers and fouls. The result is that Arroyo was much more productive than his counterpart.

Unfortunately, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra did not feel the same way and didn't play Arroyo in the fourth quarter when Nelson went off to have his most productive stretch of the game.

Of course, that stretch came against Eddie House who was lit up the previous game by T.J. Ford. No one expected House to be a defensive stopper in Miami, but if he's not being productive shooting the ball, then Spoelstra's got to pull him from the game. House shot just 2-6 from the floor against Orlando.

In two games against the Magic, Arroyo is averaging 0.465 EWP48 and Nelson is averaging -0.049 EWP48 in two games against the Heat. Arroyo needs to get more playing time against Orlando if House's shot isn't falling and Mike Miller isn't available.

Of course, Orlando didn't win the game with their perimeter players but with their big men. In the last game against the Magic in Miami, the big men for Orlando only produced an estimated 0.080 wins. In Orlando, the Magic big men produced an estimated 0.712 wins.

The improved productivity from the big men was the difference for Orlando since the Heat outplayed the Magic's perimeter players with 0.340 EWP vs. 0.183 EWP. 

The most improved big man against the Heat for the Magic was Rashard Lewis. Lewis was terrible in Miami with -0.452 EWP, but he managed to produce 0.048 EWP in Orlando. The 0.500 increase in his productivity was greater than the improvements made by Dwight Howard and Brandon Bass, the two most productive Magic players against the Heat in Orlando.

This game was a perfect fit for the narrative people like to tell about the Heat. All of the Miami big men produced at a below average rate in this game. The most productive big man for the Heat was Magloire with 0.079 EWP48. Bosh averaged 0.283 EWP48 for the first three quarters but his production fell off a cliff in the fourth quarter, perhaps the back spasms took their toll on him.

Unfortunately, the problems for Miami didn't stop with the big men. Only two Heat players managed to have a good game. One was Arroyo and the other was LeBron with 0.278 EWP48. 

With eight below average performances in a 10-man rotation, the Heat never had a real chance of winning that game - no matter how close it got for a period of time.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Magic. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @MAGIC-112410).

The Big Picture

The game recaps provide some strands of information that indicate why the Heat were struggling, but they need to be tied together. The figure below compares the production for the Heat by position before and after November 19.

As you can see, the Heat's productivity has dipped at every position except center. The biggest drops were at power forward and shooting guard, which can be attributed to the injuries for Haslem and Wade.

Wade's struggles were covered in the game recaps and summarized in the preview article for the game against the 76ers. Basically, Wade has averaged -0.217 EWP48 over the last seven days. 

If Wade were healthy and producing normally, then the Heat would have produced an estimated 1.9 wins in from 11/19 to 11/25. That's probably good enough to reverse their 1-3 record during those seven days to 3-1.

Bosh's performance has only dipped slightly at power forward in the last week from 0.183 EWP48 to 0.150 EWP48. That decrease cost the Heat an estimated 0.1 wins produced but Bosh's history indicates he won't stay at that level of productivity for long.

The bigger problem is backup power forward. For the last week, that position was manned by Howard after UD went down. Howard's produced -0.257 EWP48 since November 19 and that poor production cost the Heat an estimated 0.1 - 0.2 wins produced. 

Unlike Bosh, Howard's history indicates his productivity will stay well below average. He averaged -0.014 WP48 for Portland last season. If the Heat continue to get such poor production from their backup power forward position, then they will continue to get outplayed at that position for the rest of the season. 

Spoelstra may have to play two centers when Bosh comes out the game (Big Z with Magloire or Dampier) or he may have to go small with LeBron at power forward. He tried LeBron at power forward for seven minutes against the Pacers in the fourth quarter but LeBron was terrible with -0.342 EWP48.

Of course, instead of asking LeBron to play power forward, perhaps Spoelstra should just ask LeBron to get back to playing small forward at a high level. Before November 19, LeBron was producing 0.266 EWP48 at small foward. From 11/19 - 11/25, he's just producing 0.169 EWP48. The figure below illustrates what's changed in LeBron's production over the last seven days.

LeBron has declined in every category of the box score except free throw shooting and scoring but his scoring numbers are inflated by increased shot attempts instead of increased shooting efficiency. It's easy to watch LeBron and know that something has been off with his game.

Anyone who's watched him toss up brick after brick from the perimeter for the last week would have expected to see a decline in his shooting efficiency, but I didn't expect to see such a big decline in his stats across the board.

I don't know what's wrong with LeBron but he's starting to look like a selfish player with his decision-making on the court resulting in bad shots and turnovers. This insane love affair with his non-existent jumpshot is likely causing the decline in his free throw attempts. The decline in rebounding, steals and blocks and the increased fouls seem to be reflective of the lack of energy he's playing with lately.

For the last week, the King has been very mortal and the Heat need him to get his mojo back in order to get back to being a title contender.

Unfortunately, the Heat's problems over the last week don't just stop with their own production. The figure below illustrates the differences in their opponents' production before and after November 19.

As I mentioned in the game recaps, defending the opposing team's perimeter players has been a problem. Hopefully, a healthy Wade can stop the insane production coming from opposing shooting guards and LeBron will get back to playing like a member of the All-Defense first team. The other issue for the defense is opposing power forwards, which have doubled their productivity in the last week. I assume the hope is that Dampier can address that issue.

The Bigger Picture

I'll report back on Sunday whether or not the Heat began to address these issues against Philadelphia and Dallas.

You can find all of the updated stats for the Miami Heat's Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.

Bleacher Report Link

If you'd like to follow the Miami Heat Index on Bleacher Report, then you can go to http://bleacherreport.com/users/169775-reservoir-god.

76ers vs. Heat: Miami Needs A Little Brotherly Love From Philadelphia

The Heat got their first win of the season against the 76ers on October 27th and began a four-game winning streak. With a three-game losing streak hanging in the air, is another game against Philadelphia just what Miami needs to get things back on the right track?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Basketball-reference.com gives the Heat an 88 percent chance to beat the 76ers tonight. Based on the Wages of Wins Network's formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game (which uses Wins Produced), the Heat have a 82.1 percent chance of beating the 76ers.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat (8-7)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.134 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 91.4 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One  (last game was 95-104 loss at Orlando on 11/24/10)
• Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Philadephia 76ers (3-12)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.072 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 94.2
• Days Rest: One (last game was 90-106 loss at Toronto on 11/24/10)

Based on their recent play, I don't expect this to be an easy game for the Heat. The last time they played, Miami played its worst period of the season in the fourth quarter and allowed the 76ers to cut a 26-point lead at the end of the third quarter to just 10 points by the end of the game.

Elton Brand is coming off a one-game suspension for leveling JaVale McGee and will give Bosh all he can handle if he's still struggling with back spasms. In their last match-up, Brand attacked Bosh relentlessly and was very productive with 0.394 EWP48 compared to Bosh's 0.211 EWP48 (see the recap HERE).

Another area of concern is Dwyane Wade. Wade was superhuman in Philadelphia with 0.505 EWP48 but has struggled in his last three games with just -0.217 EWP48. 

If Wade continues to struggle, it could result in another shooting guard lighting up the Heat like Brandon Rush (0.355 EWP48) and J.J. Redick (0.258 EWP48) did in the last two games. Evan Turner was able to produce 0.302 EWP48 in the last game against Miami when Wade was healthy, so it will not be pretty if Wade can't get his game back together tonight.

Another big area of concern is LeBron James. He was the least productive player for the Heat in the last game against the 76ers with -0.113 EWP48. If Andre Iguodala can slow down LeBron again, then it could be a repeat of the Pacers game all over again at American Airlines Arena.

The last area of concern is the bench. James Jones was big off the bench in Philadelphia with 0.326 EWP48 and Thaddeus Young was big off the bench for the 76ers with 0.394 EWP48. Both players were the second-most productive for their teams in that game.

The difference entering this game is that Jones is coming off a three-game stretch that's just as bad Wade's with an average of -0.207 EWP48 against the Grizzlies, Pacers and Magic. Young was able to exploit his quickness advantage against Haslem and will probably be guarded by an even slower Juwan Howard in this game.

If the Three Kings don't come to play and get a good effort from the bench, then this could be the perfect storm for the 76ers to extend the Heat losing streak to four games. I'm hoping everything goes right for Miami.

Predicted Score: Heat 102, 76ers 91

Heat Produced Page Updated

The Heat Produced page has been updated with stats from the Pacers and Magic games.

Dwyane Wade's productivity is sinking like a stone. In his last three games, he's produced an estimated -0.519 wins and -0.217 EWP48 and is now the least of the Three Kings.

With a three-game losing streak, the decline from 75 continues. The Heat are now on pace to win 55 games this season.

I've eaten, spent time with family and should be able to post about "the week that was" tomorrow.

Miami Heat Check: Quick Look At Replacing Udonis Haslem With Erick Dampier

Udonis Haslem will be out indefinitely after foot surgery today and replaced by Erick Dampier. How will this impact the Heat's chances to win games moving forward?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Haslem produced an Estimated 0.124 Wins Per 48 minutes (EWP48) in the 13 games he played this season. In an earlier post, I projected Dampier to produce 0.130 EWP48 this season. If Dampier can hit that projection, then the impact to the Heat will be minimal. Before last night's game against the Indiana Pacers, they were on pace to win 62 games.

I don't think Dampier will hit that projection. I think there's a reason that every team passed on Dampier this offseason and that reason can't be good. Think about it - if injury-riddled, bad-luck Portland passed on Dampier with Greg Oden out for the season and their coaching staff just one Marcus Camby injury away from starting Dante Cunningham, then how productive can he be?

I also heard a blogger denigrate the productivity of Zydrunas Ilgauskas on a podcast. Fact of the matter is that  he's been more productive than Haslem and the projection for Dampier with 0.152 EWP48 (see the Heat Produced page).

Big Z has been above average in every category except for getting to the line and shooting free throws, steals, assists and personal fouls. The Heat will be fine with him as the starting center - as long as he can hold up (he looked pretty winded getting up and down with the Pacers).

Miami Heat Index Is Still Alive, Unlike The Heat's Chances Of Winning 70+ Games

Apologies for the blog going dark the last four days but I've been terribly busy with work before the holiday.

The Heat Produced page is updated with stats through 11/20/10 (the loss to the Grizzlies).

No stats from the loss to the Pacers because I use box scores from PopcornMachine.net and it hasn't been updated with last night's stats yet.

I've got one last thing to finish for work before I can post on the impact of Haslem's injury and the addition of Erick Dampier.

Phoenix Suns Get Crushed In The Bosh Pit

Chris Bosh scored 35 points in his best game for the Miami Heat but the last seven were the most important. Bosh's last seven points were nails in the coffin of a 21-8 Suns run in the third quarter that had cut the lead to 12. Bosh's last seven points started an 18-3 run by Miami that effectively put the game out of reach.

That was the good part of the game. The crazy part? It wasn't even the best part of the game for the Heat.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap

The best part of the game for the Heat was the second quarter. The second quarter against the Suns was the second biggest gap in wins produced by the Heat and an opponent. 

Miami produced an estimated 0.8 wins more than Phoenix in that period. The only quarter the Heat produced a bigger gap than that was the third quarter against Orlando. The figure below shows the Heat performance against opponents by quarter.

One of the crazy things about the second quarter was that it was Bosh's least productive quarter, but he still managed to produce 0.373 EWP48. His worst quarter in the game was as good as Dwight Howard was all season!

The real story in the second quarter for the Heat was LeBron James. LeBron produced 1.44 EWP48 for 10 minutes in the second quarter, including a four minute stretch from the 5:16 mark when he produced 1.94 EWP48! Yes, there will be a lot of exclamation points in this article.

Foul trouble limited LeBron's playing time in the third quarter and that limited playing time resulted in Bosh being the most productive player against the Suns. LeBron was more productive than Bosh on a per-minute basis (0.767 EWP48 vs. 0.723 EWP48), but Bosh played 7.2 more minutes which resulted in him producing an estimated 0.455 wins compared to LeBron's estimated 0.368 wins.

As good as the Heat were in the second quarter, the Suns were just the opposite. Only two players made a positive contribution in the second period for Phoenix - Josh Childress (0.008 EWP48) and Grant Hill (0.032 EWP48) - and they were well below average.

In the third quarter, the Suns tried to prevent the game from descending into garbage time but they weren't as successful as the Raptors in the last game. The Suns comeback attempt was aborted by the lineup of Eddie House, Dwyane Wade, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Chris Bosh. Here are the productivity numbers for that lineup in the third quarter:

PLAYER (POS) - EWP48, EWP
Eddie House (PG) - 1.526 EWP48, 0.130 EWP
Dwyane Wade (SG) - 0.882 EWP48, 0.221 EWP
James Jones (SF) - 0.264 EWP48, 0.045 EWP
Udonis Haslem (PF) - 0.704 EWP48, 0.075 EWP
Chris Bosh (C) - 0.725 EWP48, 0.168 EWP

The players in that lineup combined to produce an estimated 0.639 wins for the Heat in the third quarter! The Heat produced an estimated 1.2 wins for the game! More exclamation points, please!

Oddly enough, the third quarter was the only productive stint in the game for James Jones. His productivity was below zero in every other quarter.

The figure below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Suns. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled SUNS-111710).

The Big Picture
The Heat ended their four-game losing streak to elite point guards with their win over the Suns. Steve Nash entered the game as the fourth-best point guard in the NBA with a 0.282 WP48. He only managed to produce an estimated 0.003 WP48, but he was struggling with an injured groin.

The most impressive part of the Heat defense was that they limited Nash to two assists and I don't think that had anything to do with his groin injury. The other three elite point guards Miami has played so far averaged 20.1 assists per 48 minutes, so the Heat defense definitely stepped it up.

The Heat don't play another elite point guard until December 8th when they go to Utah seeking revenge against Deron Williams and Paul Millsap. John Wall could be an interesting test before that on November 29th.

The Bigger Picture
The Suns were the fourth team this season the Heat reduced a team's productivity below zero. The other three teams are listed below.

TEAM (DATE): EST. WINS PRODUCED
Orlando Magic (10/29/10): -0.089
New Jersey Nets (10/31/10): -0.375
Minnesota Timberwolves (11/2/10): -0.509
Phoenix Suns (11/17/10): -0.207

Bosh's big game pushed him ahead of Udonis Haslem and James Jones on the Heat Produced list and he joined Wade and LeBron at the top of the Heat Produced list. I guess you could call the game Bosh's official coronation as one of the Three Kings. Here is the list of the top five players on the Heat in estimated wins produced:

PLAYER (EST. WINS PRODUCED)

1. Dwyane Wade (2.25)

2. LeBron James (1.986)

3. Chris Bosh (1.226)

4. Udonis Haslem (0.975)

5. James Jones (0.728)

You can find all of the updated stats for the Miami Heat's Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.

Suns vs. Heat: Miami Favored To End Its Losing Streak Against Elite Point Guards

"Steve Nash droppn 30 tonight"

That's the text message my brother sent me this afternoon before the Phoenix Suns play the Miami Heat at 7 P.M. There's been a lot of talk about the Heat's struggles with elite point guards and my brother decided to add his own thoughts to the conversation. Can he be right? Will Nash torch the Heat at the point guard position tonight?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Elite point guards have been three times more productive than the average point guard against Miami but they are only averaging 14 points per 48 minutes so I don't think Nash will be dropping 30 points, but he could definitely cause havoc, as the spreadsheet below illustrates.

The Heat have faced three of the five most productive point guards in the league - Chris Paul (0.512 WP48), Rajon Rondo (0.324 WP48) and Deron Williams (0.217 WP48). Steve Nash has been the fourth most productive point guard this season with 0.282 WP48 (which is close to what elite point guards have averaged against the Heat).

I think it's safe to say the Heat will struggle defending Steve Nash tonight if they play like they have in the first 10 games. Will Nash be enough to keep the Heat winless against the NBA's best point guards?

Basketball-reference.com gives the Heat a 78 percent chance of ending that losing streak against elite point guards. Based on the Wages of Wins Network's formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game (which uses Wins Produced), the Heat have a 75.4 percent chance of beating the Suns.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat (6-4)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.151 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 91.4 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: Three  (last game was 109-100 win over Toronto on 11/13/10)
• Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Phoenix Suns (6-4)
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.110 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 94.7
• Days Rest: One (last game was 100-94 win over Denver on 11/15/10)

I hope the Heat turn this game into a track meet since they're coming off three days rest while the Suns only had one day rest and had to travel cross-country. I want to see aggressive traps of Nash on the pick-and-roll and a lot of LeBron and Wade in transition.

Predicted score: Heat 115, Suns 106

Heat-Lakers: Glazing The Donut And Looking Ahead

A lot has been made about the Miami Heat's lack of size in the paint and I've received several comments, like this one, stating that bigger teams will be able to exploit Miami's donut to their advantage. Do the Heat need more size up front to stop teams from trying to play them out like that groupie tried to play Rakim on Eric B. Is President?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The first thing I did to investigate this issue was use data from basketball-reference.com to calculate the average lbs/inch for each Heat opponent (see figures below).

Every team has a higher lbs/inch ratio than the Heat except for Orlando and if you omit Rashard Lewis, then their average lbs/inch moves from 2.87 to 2.93 and they become bigger than the Heat, too. The Heat big men average 2.91 lbs/in. Their opponents in the first 10 games average 3.01 lbs/in. Despite the size disadvantage, the Heat have managed to limit opposing big men to an average of 0.084 WP48 (see figures below).

But the Heat have played some bad teams, so let's limit the analysis to above average big men Miami has played (average WP48 > 0.100).

Under those conditions, the first thing that happens is the Celtics fall out of the sample because their big men have only managed to produce a sub-par average of 0.080 WP48 so far this season. Against the Heat, the Celtics big men only produced an average of 0.025 EWP48. Boston centers produced 0.096 EWP48 but their power forwards only produced -0.068 EWP48. The problem with the Celtics was that Miami allowed their perimeter players to be extremely productive in both losses with an average of 0.233 EWP48.

Let's shift the focus back to teams with above average big men. The list of Heat opponents with above average big men includes Orlando, Utah, Toronto and New Orleans. As the figure below illustrates, the Heat have struggled against above average big men.

Miami's played four of its 10 games against teams with above average big men and have lost an estimated 1.2 wins to those teams. The Heat have only lost 1.7 EWP against big men all season, so the other four teams' big men have only managed to produce 0.5 EWP in six games.

The question that started this post was a comment stating that the Heat need more size to handle the big men of the Lakers and Celtics. I've already addressed the Celtics - they're big men aren't necessarily a problem. What about the Lakers?

The Lakers big men currently produce an average of 0.233 WP48, which is better than any team the Heat have faced so far. Miami is 2-2 in four games against above average big men, including a 26-point blowout of the Magic (which have the most productive big men the Heat have faced so far). Will Miami overcome their current disadvantage against the Lakers in the paint or will L.A. glaze the Miami donut on Christmas Day?

If the Lakers big men produced 0.233 EWP48 against the Heat, then Miami would need to average 0.178 EWP48 across the other three positions (PG, SG, SF) to win the game. The Heat currently average 0.173 EWP48 across those positions.

So, if Miami holds the Lakers big men slightly below their average or the Heat perimeter players produce above their average, then they could beat L.A.

Remember, the Heat have been holding above average big men to 0.146 EWP48.

But the Lakers have some players with reputations as good perimeter defenders, too.

I can't wait until December 25th.

The WP48 stats used for this article were powered by Nerd Numbers. The EWP48 numbers were taken from the Heat Produced page.

Heat-Raptors: Where Garbage Time Didn't Happen

The Miami Heat had an 18-point lead on the Toronto Raptors three minutes into the third quarter after a monster dunk and three-point play by Chris Bosh. The most likely outcome seemed to be garbage time in the fourth quarter.

Only one problem - it didn't happen.

The Raptors went on a 16-3 run over the next six minutes as 12 of the Heat's next 14 plays ended in missed shots or turnovers. With a 2-7 team in the building on the second night of a back-to-back and the taste of a foul, two-game home losing streak in their mouths, why didn't the Heat finish the blowout of Toronto in the third quarter and render the entire fourth quarter garbage time?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Recap

The Heat didn't blowout the Raptors because they played their worst third quarter of the season with an average EWP48 of -0.097. Only four of the nine Miami players that saw the court in the third quarter made a positive contribution - Dwyane Wade (0.086 EWP48), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (0.287 EWP48), James Jones (0.268 EWP48) and Eddie House (0.336 EWP48).

Those four players combined to score eight points and grab five rebounds with only one missed shot and one turnover to produce an estimated 0.112 wins in 41.8 percent of the minutes played in the  third quarter.

The other five players combined to wipe out that production with an estimated -0.233 wins produced. The worst players in the period were the two that have taken the most criticism this season: Carlos Arroyo (-0.516 EWP48) and Joel Anthony (-0.974 EWP48).

Anthony lost his starting spot to Ilgauskas, who came through with 0.196 EWP48 for 29.8 minutes. I don't know how often Big Z will be able to play that many minutes. He has only played more than 30 minutes per game once in the last six seasons.

The change in coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation resulted in Anthony's minutes getting cut in half because he continued to play Bosh at center for 10+ minutes/game. I mentioned in the preview for this game that Bosh didn't match-up well with Toronto's power forwards. Spoelstra minimized this weakness by giving Bosh 48 percent of his minutes at center against the weaker Andrea Bargnani and David Andersen.

Before this game, Bosh's production at center was below average with just 0.056 EWP48, but he dominated Bargnani and Andersen to produce 0.745 EWP48 for 10.5 minutes. Bosh's domination was limited by foul trouble and he only played 21.7 minutes.

The odd thing was that Spoelstra kept Bosh on the bench for the rest of the game after he got his fifth foul with 9:50 left in the fourth quarter but I couldn't find any articles stating it was an issue. I still think it was odd...

The spotlight may have been on Bosh before the game, but once the lights go on in the American Airlines Arena it's always about Dwyane Wade. Wade led the team in wins produced for the sixth time this season with 0.485 EWP48 but only 22.8 percent of his production came after halftime.

Miami's own James Jones protected the Heat lead in the second half. He was the second-most productive player for the Heat with 0.428 EWP48 and 57.7 percent of his wins produced came in the fourth quarter.

Joey Dorsey kept Toronto in the game with an insane rebounding night. Dorsey grabbed 40.5 percent of available rebounds for the 15.9 minutes he was in the game. He got the Raptors so many possessions at such an incredible rate that he was their most productive player with a phenomenal 0.901 EWP48.

Like Bosh, Dorsey was saddled with foul trouble and didn't play much in the fourth quarter. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon kept the fourth quarter from becoming garbage time. Along with Dorsey, they were the only Raptors that performed above average in that quarter.

Calderon produced 0.201 EWP48 in the fourth quarter and 0.323 EWP48 for the game with a great shooting night (5-7 from the floor, 2-2 from the three-point line and 3-3 from the free throw line).

Bargnani produced 0.302 EWP48 in the fourth quarter by scoring nine points on 4-6 shooting from the floor, but he shot terribly for the game with just 22 points on 23 shots and four free throws (his adjusted shooting percentage was 39.1 percent). Bargnani also had a good second quarter with 0.347 EWP48 by scoring nine points on 4-6 shooting from the floor. Unfortunately, Bargnani missed all 11 shots he took in the first and third quarters to end the game with -0.088 EWP48.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Raptors. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled RAPTORS-111310).

The Big Picture
In addition to starting Big Z over Anthony, Spoelstra also changed his point guard rotation. He used Mario Chalmers as the first point guard off the bench instead of Eddie House. House usually comes into the game for Arroyo, but Spoelstra brought him in for Wade in the first quarter instead.

Chalmers made no positive contributions at point guard and House didn't do anything at shooting guard, either. The problem is that Chalmers has been below average all season at point guard (0.064 EWP48) but House had been very productive with 0.177 EWP48 for 67.7 minutes at the point. House has actually been below average at shooting guard all season with 0.056 EWP48 for 132.7 minutes.

When House plays point guard he obviously doesn't handle the ball but he does provide the knockdown shooting that Miami needs from that position. I don't know why he struggles with his shot in the shooting guard role but his adjusted shooting percentage is 11 points lower in lineups that use him at shooting guard.

Unless Chalmers picks his productivity up, I think Spoelstra needs to keep tinkering with the point guard rotation.

While I'm on the subject of point guards, the Heat's 6'8" point guard had a terribly unproductive game against the Raptors with just 0.011 EWP48. Thirteen missed shots from the floor, four missed shots from the line and just two rebounds in 39 minutes were the cause of LeBron's low productivity number. It was the first time LeBron's production was below 0.200 EWP48 since the second game of the season on October 27, 2010 against the 76ers.

The Bigger Picture
The Heat struggled defending another point guard but the problems guarding Calderon were more like the problems the Heat had guarding Ray Allen and not Rajon Rondo. According to the ESPN.com shot chart, the closest shot Calderon took was 17 feet away from the basket but Miami's defense allowed him to shoot 5-7 from the floor. With all the focus on better defense against penetrating point guards, Heat fans shouldn't overlook the team's recent defensive problems against perimeter shooters, either.

If the Heat do start to force more missed shots, then Bosh will need to maintain the improved rebounding he showed against his old team. He grabbed boards at a rate of 13.2 per 48 minutes against the Raptors. His season average is just 8.9 per 48 minutes.

If Bosh could average 13.2 rebounds per 48 minutes, then I think he would be back in the discussion of players that deserve to make the all-star team. Wade and LeBron's spots are secure with productivity numbers above 0.200 EWP48 but Bosh's spot is not with a 0.115 EWP48.

If Bosh rebounds every night like he's facing the Raptors, then his EWP48 would nearly double to 0.227 and put him above the threshold for NBA stardom. It would also leave just three eastern conference power forwards with a higher level of productivity - Al Horford, Josh Smith and Kevin Garnett (see the Wins Produced Viewer).

Of those three players, only Al Horford has a higher scoring average than Bosh per 36 minutes, according to basketball-reference.com. Since scoring dominates perception in the NBA, I think the odds of Bosh making his sixth straight all-star game would improve tremendously if he increased his rebounding.

Finally, back on the Heat side of things, Wade's great game and LeBron's sub-par game caused them to switch places on the Heat Produced list. Wade is once again the most productive player for Miami this season. The top five is listed below.

Player (Est. Wins Produced)
1. Dwyane Wade (1.92)
2. LeBron James (1.69)
3. Udonis Haslem (0.88)
4. James Jones (0.87)
5. Chris Bosh (0.77)

You can find all of the updated stats for the Miami Heat's Estimated Wins Produced on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and espn.com.

Raptors vs. Heat: Miami Favored To End Losing Streak With Extinction Level Event

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors enter tonight's game in surprising roles. The Heat have lost two home games in a row while the Raptors are trying to be the second underdog this week to sweep through the state of Florida after last night's defeat of the Orlando Magic.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 96.6 percent chance of beating the Raptors and sending their two-game losing streak into extinction.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.154 (see the Heat Produced page)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 91.5 (see basketball-reference.com)
• Days Rest: One (last game was 112-107 loss to Boston Celtics on 11/11/10)
• Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Toronto Raptors
• Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.076 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
• Average Possessions Per Game: 95.9
• Days Rest: Zero (last game was a 110-106 win in Orlando on 11/12/10)

There are several big questions surrounding the Heat in this game, but the biggest one will be whether or not Chris Bosh can breakout of his own two-game slump and dominate his old team after being outplayed by Paul Millsap and Kevin Garnett this week. The figure below illustrates how Bosh's performance this season compares to the replacement power forwards in Toronto, Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson.

It looks like the Raptors have not missed Bosh at all so far, and he has another uphill battle coming his way in the paint tonight but I don't think Toronto will be able to exploit that match-up enough to win the game.

Predicted score: Heat 105, Raptors 92

Stats for the Raptors were taken from the NBeh? blog. Chris Bosh's stats were taken from the Heat Produced page.


For more information on Win Score and Wins Produced see the article Wins Produced vs. Win Score.

Miami Heat Check: It Was All Good Just A Week Ago, Part 1

A week ago, the Miami Heat were in New Orleans with a 4-1 record and a winning streak. Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Mario Chalmers had enjoyed a good dinner with Chris Paul the night before and it was all good.

A week later, the Heat are home in Miami with a 1-3 record and two-game losing streak since that meal with Chris Paul in New Orleans. And it ain't all good after being involved in tough games with some Eastern Conference bodiers and Western Conference cap peelers. What happened?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Jazz 116, Heat 114
The week got off to a bad start with an amazing loss to the Utah Jazz who entered the game with just a 1.3 percent chance of winning. Paul Millsap squeezed out every drop of that 1.3 percent by scoring a career-high 46 points, including an unbelievable 11 points in the last 28 seconds of the fourth quarter, to lead a successful comeback from a 19-point halftime deficit. In hindsight, the prediction for that game looked silly and the good people of Bleacher Report let me know how silly they thought it was (see HERE and HERE).

The Heat have outscored opponents by 81 points in the third quarter and produced 3.6 more wins in that quarter over nine games for an average margin of 0.4 wins in the third quarter so far this season. It was the opposite story against Utah on Tuesday night. The Heat were less productive than their opponent in the third quarter for the first time this season. The Jazz produced an estimated 0.445 wins in the third quarter compared to an estimated 0.004 wins for the Heat.

Millsap owned the third quarter. He scored 18 points and produced an estimated 0.852 WP48. The second-most productive player in the quarter was Deron Williams with an estimated 0.680 WP48. The only Jazz starter that was below average in the third quarter was Raja Bell with an estimated -0.017 WP48.

Dwyane Wade (estimated 0.762 WP48) and Joel Anthony (estimated 0.313 WP48) were the only players on the Heat that came out of the locker room ready to play the second half. The other three starters were below average and combined to produce -0.133 wins in the third quarter.

As bad as the third quarter was for the Heat (it was their fourth-worst quarter this season), they were almost able to match that level of ineptitude in the fourth quarter as they put together their fifth-worst period of the season. The Jazz entered the fourth quarter trailing by 13 points but over the next 12 minutes they produced 0.4 more wins than the Heat.

When it was winning time, Millsap and Deron Williams went to work. They combined to produce an estimated 0.3 wins in the last five minutes of regulation and put Millsap in position to send the game into overtime with a put-back at the buzzer.

The Heat also gave Millsap a chance to win the game by missing seven free throws in the fourth quarter that were worth 0.1 wins. The Jazz produced an estimated 0.523 wins for the game compared to an estimated 0.477 wins for the Heat. Those free throws were crucial.

In overtime, Andrei Kirilenko won the game for the Jazz by stuffing the stat sheet AK-47 style. He scored five points without missing a shot, grabbed two rebounds and assisted a Kyrylo Fesenko layup. Kirilennko provided 83 percent of the team's production in overtime with the rest coming from two Francisco Elson free throws with 0.4 seconds left on the clock.

Wade and Chris Bosh combined for 10 points, two rebounds and two fouls that produced an estimated 0.110 wins for the Heat in overtime. That would have been enough to win but the rest of the team produced an estimated -0.165 wins to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

When it was all said and done, Utah's three-man Jazz band outplayed the Three Kings from Miami. Deron Williams, Millsap and Kirilenko all played like superstars and combined to produce an estimated 0.771 wins while LeBron James, Wade and Bosh only combined to produce an estimated 0.583 wins.

Dethroned: Comparing Utah's 3-Man Band to Miami's Three Kings
Deron Williams (0.318 EWP48) vs. Dwyane Wade (0.331 EWP48)
Andrei Kirilenko (0.313 EWP48) vs. LeBron James (0.279 EWP48)
Paul Millsap (0.343 EWP48) vs. Chris Bosh (0.099 EWP48)

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Jazz. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled JAZZ-110910).



Celtics 112, Heat 107
Two nights after the Musical Miracle By Biscayne Bay, the Heat lost their second game to the Celtics and their second consecutive game at home. The Heat came into the game with a 64.3 percent chance of winning but it didn't look like it after the opening tip.



The obvious problem for the Heat was that the Three Kings were outplayed by the Celtics' Big Three. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh only combined to produce an estimated 0.054 wins while Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce combined to produce an estimated 0.699 wins. If Paul Pierce took his talents to South Beach, it didn't really show up in the box score because his production was well below average. A comparison of each team's Big Three is below.

Dethroned: Boston's Three-Leaf Clover vs. Miami's Three Kings
Ray Allen (0.386 EWP48) vs. Dwyane Wade (-0.400 EWP48)
Paul Pierce (0.025 EWP48) vs. LeBron James (0.364 EWP48)
Kevin Garnett (0.450 EWP48) vs. Chris Bosh (0.070 EWP48)

If you squint past the star power, the most productive player on the floor was Udonis Haslem who scored 21 points by only missing one shot, grabbed 10 rebounds, blocked one shot and had one steal with an estimated 0.558 WP48. The only other player with above average production was Eddie House (0.314 EWP48) who outplayed his replacement in Boston through three quarters, but Nate Robinson went off in the fourth quarter and ended the game with 0.679 EWP48.

One of the best things this Miami Heat team has brought back to the NBA for me this season was a hatred of the Boston Celtics. I grew up with the NBA in the '80s as a huge Magic Johnson fan and I felt weird rooting for the Celtics to keep Kobe Bryant from winning titles in two of the last three years. But from Paul Pierce's tweet to Big Baby's post-shower declaration, the Celtics' arrogance, trash-talking and bullying have brought back that hatred and that's why the two losses to Boston are frustrating (my little brother, who's a huge KG fan, doesn't help).

Eight players in the Heat's nine-man rotation have provided above average production (EWP48 > 0.100) this season, and the ninth player, Joel Anthony, is very close with 0.097 EWP48. The Celtics have cut that number in half. The spreadsheet below details Miami players' production against the Boston defense.



Haslem (0.453 EWP48) has been dominant against Boston and House (0.201 EWP48) has played like a star. LeBron (0.159 EWP48)  and Joel Anthony (0.126 EWP48) have both been above average, but the rest of the team has been horrific with an average EWP48 of -0.098 in the first two games with the Celtics.

It looks like the Heat's former video coordinator will have to look at a lot of video to figure out how to get Haslem and LeBron some help for their next game against the Celtics.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Celtics. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled CELTICS-111110).



Who is next up for the Heat? A Toronto team that just defeated Orlando.  What is next up for the Miami Heat Index? Part 2 of this article, which will analyze the bigger picture of what, if anything, is wrong with the Miami Heat.

Miami Heat Will Force Haters To Learn A New Tune After They Beat The Jazz

All of the analysts talking about the Miami Heat's supposed weaknesses at point guard and center will be exposed as false prophets tonight after Heat's home game against Deron Williams, Al Jefferson and the Utah Jazz.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 98.7 percent chance of beating the Jazz when they visit Miami tonight.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers that went into the formula:

>Miami Heat Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.187 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)

>Miami Heat Pace: 91.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)

>Miami Heat Days Rest: Two (last game was 101-89 win over N.J. Nets on 11/7/10)

>Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)

>Utah Jazz Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.092 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)

>Utah Jazz Pace: 95.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)

>Utah Jazz Days Rest: Two (last game was 109-107 2OT win over L.A. Clippers on 11/7/10)

I've mentioned previously that the Heat won't be favored to lose a home game all season and this game is a perfect example of why.  The Heat are literally twice as good as the Jazz and there should be no question about how this game will end.

The only question after this game will be whether or not the "experts" proclaiming the Heat's weaknesses at point guard and center will keep singing that same old, tired song after Deron Williams and Al Jefferson get run out of the building.

Predicted score: Heat 100, Jazz 86.

For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.